Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 1143, has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, using the more reliable method of allocating minor party and independent preferences according to the last election (Morgan is still using the preference distributions from 2007, but those from 2010 were not significantly different). This is down from 54.5-45.5 a week ago. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 40.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 1.5 per cent to 41 per cent and the Greens are down two to 13 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,392 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. [The best comment I’ve read re Grog was one that suggested the real issue here was professional jealousy; the idea that professional journalists felt threatened and envious at the attention given to a ‘hobby’ journalist.]

    professionals fear nothing more than a talented amateur.

  3. What a lily livered approach…what about a command of summons?
    [His Excellency the Governor-General entered the chamber and, being seated, with the President on his right hand, commanded that a message be sent to the House of Representatives intimating that His Excellency desired the attendance of honourable members in the Senate chamber.]
    http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/dailys/ds120208.pdf

    While Abbott is trashing Westminster conventions, I wonder if he would ignore the GG’s desire and stay put in the House during her speech; maybe pass a motion of no-confidence… 👿

  4. redwombat
    [The day Ruphert pops his clogs ]
    To redirect to Roophurt some else’s quote (wtte):

    “I would not wish you dead but if the world were to stop spinning and you fell off, I would throw a big party that day and on the anniversary every year after.”

  5. re. parliament, I believe tomorrow is ceremonial, the GG will open parliament, and give a speech outlining the (ie her) Govts program.

    Either after the opening or first thing on Wednesday will be the election of the speaker and deputy speaker.

    QT won’t be until Wednesday – and even then QT will start with speeches on various motions -e.g. condolence motions for the dead soldiers.

  6. Shame on you James Massola. Is this what you became a journalist to do? To be part of an attempt, by intimidation, to stifle dissent against the views your employers? To be an agent for those who have decided that it is they, not the people, who decide who should govern Australia?

    How ironic it is when those who would portray themselves when it suits them as defenders of free speech are the very ones who start to suppress it.

    Before writing this I wondered if my reaction was over the top. On reflection I think not. Australia is heading into very dangerous territory here. The dominant media power in the country is working in tandem with a man who will do anything, trash any institution, break any promise, for power.

    The outing of Grog is a relatively small part of this process, but combined with the latest attack on Oakeshott shows the pattern. Some journalists face a huge choice – do they really want to be part of this or will they stand up against it. Advertisers like ANZ should be clear on what they are supporting too.

  7. I am trying to eat a bacon sandwich for lunch. My four terriers are watching me; they are salivating, licking their lips and watching for a crumb to drop. They are very nervous as I get to the last few mouthfuls. Will they get any? I am so glad they are more socialised that Tony Abbott.

    (BTW, the tail-waggers don’t know it but I have some bacon-rind out aside just for them.)

  9. People can choose the time of their death and commit suicide in the majority of cases eg the lady who didn’t have cancer. In most cases there is no need to medicalise death. There are very rare cases when this can’t happen and these are the problematic ones.

  10. I believe this was from Pyne’s i/v with Fran this morning on RN.
    He justified everything because Labor had broken their promise on “no carbon tax”.

  14. I wish people would recognise the distinction between euthanasia and assisted suicide. Euthanasia is when it is agreed to kill someone (or let them die) when they don’t have the ability to decide for themselves – such as newborns with gross deformities or someone in a coma, for example. Assisted suicide is when a person decides for themselves that they want to do but need assistance to peform the deed. All the legislation I’ve seen proposed in Australia is for assisted suicide. The two both raise difficult issues, but not the same issues.

  15. [People can choose the time of their death and commit suicide in the majority of cases eg the lady who didn’t have cancer.]

    dio, this is true, but as things stand, it seems there can be some significant problems for people left behind depending on what they do to help. also, while attempting to kill yourself can be relatively easy, succeeding is often less so. i feel that there should be an option to let doctors help, seeing as they are the experts. (sorry, i couldn’t help myself there, allied health… 🙂 )

    [In most cases there is no need to medicalise death. There are very rare cases when this can’t happen and these are the problematic ones.]

    given that people will be living longer and medical innovation improving, our ability to manage a condition will exceed quality of life more often. i think it will get less rare and health professionals will be less able to avoid it.

  16. Goshome

    Yes, what happened to freedom of speech? I did not read anywhere that Grog was inciting violence or was a danger to the peace of society. It is a disgrace.

  17. [But manager of Opposition business Christopher Pyne says the Government should stick to the deal even though the Coalition walked away from pairing the speakers.

    “There’s no constitutional bar to the deputy speaker being from another party other than the Labor Party,” he told Radio National.]

    And you know, even though Gillard has the support of 76 MHRs, she should really give Abbott government… err… in the name of the new political paradigm…

  24. [All the legislation I’ve seen proposed in Australia is for assisted suicide. The two both raise difficult issues, but not the same issues.]

    psephos, assisted suicide + enduring power of attorney/guardianship = de facto euthanasia. at least to my reckoning.

  25. Anony

    All of those comments are true. GG is right when he says euthanasia isn’t a religious debate. Only 40% of doctors support it with the same opposing it. It’s bloody difficult.

  28. [TSOP

    Why couldn’t the good folt of SA, vote this pain out?]

    Because he had more money than god to defend himself with. Also, in the Eastern suburbs exist a combination of the upper crust of Adelaide (who are convinced that the Howard years were this country’s golden age) and ultrareligious folks, who would never support “HER”

    Anyway, even if he lost, he’d probably worm his way into the next Liberal Senate ticket.

  30. Dio

    I finished reading the Nixon-Kissinger book. Worthwhile, particularly as we enter into an interesting period of the political process here. Personally, I might have prefered to have read the Epilogue first as an introduction (but that could be just me, having read and written too many powerpoint presentations to be altogether healthy).

    When I replaced the book on the shelf, I saw another book, Politics of Rage by Dan Carterm which I read a few years ago, but I thought was also very good (biography of George Wallace of Alabama)

  31. GG

    This one certainly would be. I’d refuse. There will always be some who would though like the doctors who put in the drips in the US to carry out executions. I’m not saying they are wrong but it’s not for me.

  32. red and blue books from Treasury released under FOI are quite a good read, one after the other to see what is similar and what is different in what was being advised – lots of commonality, differences in emphasis

    the big issues? climate change, health, tax approach, COAG capability to deliver

    nothing on Boats (maybe this is the blacked out bit)

    available on http://www.petermartin.com.au (expand the Henry review article)

  35. Assisted Suicide/Euthanasia is a very difficult and sensitive debate that goes beyond just religious fundamentalism or “political cowardice”. There are some real concerns that need to be addressed and safeguards need to be adamantly put in place (if possible.) GG was right to bring up the individual who thought she had cancer and died via AS. It’s not an easy debate but it is good we are having it. Namecalling against opponents or proponents is not helpful. This debate needs to go beyond the normal ideological dichotomy.

  36. Laocoon

    Thanks for that. I’ll read the epilogue as an intro.

    I’m reading Peter Gay’s bio of Freud which is fascinating. Freud kept burning his notes and correspondence to piss off his biographers!!

  40. there is a bit of business to be conducted tomorrow after the ceremonies – this from the Senate:

    [At approximately 5 pm, the President will resume the chair.

    The probable order of business will be––

    Prayers
    The President to report to the Senate the receipt of the speech of the Governor-General, and consideration of the speech to be made an order of the day for the next day of sitting
    Ministerial statement announcing the new ministry
    Announcements of party leaderships, shadow ministry and whips
    Notices of motion
    Presentation of documents
    Condolence motion(s) for the deaths of Australian defence personnel in Afghanistan
    Adjournment.]

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