Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 1143, has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, using the more reliable method of allocating minor party and independent preferences according to the last election (Morgan is still using the preference distributions from 2007, but those from 2010 were not significantly different). This is down from 54.5-45.5 a week ago. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 40.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 1.5 per cent to 41 per cent and the Greens are down two to 13 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,392 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  3. [Merde! I have to go out for three hours and might miss the fun of seeing the unhinged one live up to his name.]

    BK, I’ll make sure to enjoy the event twice as much to make up for your absence 😉

  9. So who put out the press release quoting Somlyay with wtte the LNP are great etc,.This was all total BS. Liesa dn more lies from Abbott and co.

  11. [BK
    Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 at 6:25 pm | Permalink
    Merde! I have to go out for three hours and might miss the fun of seeing the unhinged one live up to his name.]

    havent you invested in one of new tvs that tape for you yet bk

    are you out to dinner with those lib friends,. lol

  13. I think Labor should HONOR this Undys Agree no matter what Liberals do with D/Speaker , it was made in good faith and if Abbott wants to further expose himself then let him

  14. [So did Abbott put out a press release on Somlyay’s behalf? Saying stuff that was incorrect?

    How bizarre if true.]
    The ultimate verballiing.

  21. If the Liberal Party dis-endorse him does this mean he’ll lose his seat or will be in the same position Michael Johnson was in earlier in the year?

  24. Somlyay.

    I leave work sad, arrive home, turn on Sky and …..

    Where did the “authorised” Fib statement come from?

    Is Joe Hockey going to retract his statement?

    Somlyay is …. a refugee (stop the boats) and …. an economist (gasp).

  25. [ABC News 24

    Somylay says he didn’t issue earlier statement denying deal]

    So who the heck did? Is this the new low point in Liberal Party tactics, verballing your own side?

  29. [If the Liberal Party dis-endorse him does this mean he’ll lose his seat…]

    Somlyay is retiring at the next election, so the Libs cannot touch him. 🙂

  31. I wonder if the iffy press release story will get attention in the MSM. I doubt it , but in any system which had a free and honest press, it would be a huge story that could make the reputation of a persistent journalist.

  33. [So who the heck did? Is this the new low point in Liberal Party tactics, verballing your own side?]
    Bully tactics using the media to prevent him from brokering a deal no doubt.
    Mmmmm….doesn’t seem to have worked.

  34. madcyril

    I find this truly unbelievable. Who do these born to rule people think they are? Now they are speaking on behalf of people, replacing their own words with what they want to say.

  36. madcyril according to Sky News

    Somlyay agrees to back Labor
    Updated: 18:30, Friday September 24, 2010
    Somlyay agrees to back Labor

    Liberal MP Alex Somlyay has agreed to back Labor in return for the Deputy Speaker position, effectively ending the Parliamentary Speaker deadlock.

    Mr Somlyay told Sky News that contrary to a statement issued by Tony Abbott’s office, he is willing to back Labor on confidence motions and supply bills.

    MORE TO COME

  38. [ No such luck, my say. Fire fighting training. ]

    Abbot could do with some of that, hint: gasoline is an inappropriate fire suppressant.

  39. It appears Abbott or at least his office issued the statememnt without even referring it to Somlyay…thats the sort of dirt bag Abbott is

  40. 👿

    This is too delicious for words!

    All the libs talk about ‘being the only stable party’ and they haven’t even made it to the first sitting and they are already in disarray!

    Karma, karma, karma has just hit the chameleon.

  41. Has Abbott reached a new low? His colleagues will not be impressed if he’s putting out fake press releases. His credibility will be shot.

  43. [Has Abbott reached a new low?]

    Diogs, that’s not possible for the Libs – that marker keeps changing by the second, so as you write “have they reached a new low” it’s already been lowered

  44. Sky reports that Somlyay does not want to be associated with the statement issues by Tony Abbott, previous thread.

    I heard that anti Abbott stuff on ABC radio at 3.00 pm, but they did not attribute it.

    Though it was associated with Soml YAY!

    Definite caning.

    BUT, just heard on ABC at 6.00……Treasury reservations on costs for National Broadband.

    Win one, lose one.

    Harry gets the gig.

  45. [“faceless men” of Liberal Party issuing false press releases on behalf of a Lib MP]

    ron, surely that’ll be tomorrow’s headline in the OO 😛

  47. What a stupendous stuff-up by the Libs if this is true. Losing a backbencher is careless – but sending out the media release you had written for him before he agrees to what you’ve said he is agreeing to is stupid beyond all words.

    Undoubtedly a cock-up but it can be portrayed as:

    Libs seeking to force Somlylay into declining

    Abbott is a control freak on the Rudd level as his office even writes statements for backbenchers

    It was another and out and out lie to force a backdown

    Abbott has lost control of his own offcie as well as party

    What was that about Labor being the incompetent party?

  48. [Has Abbott reached a new low? His colleagues will not be impressed if he’s putting out fake press releases. His credibility will be shot.]

    A new version of ’email-gate’. Press release-gate!

    Abbott isn’t falling on his sword — if this came out of his office, he has swan-dived onto it!

    😆

  49. Story now up on SMH site

    [
    The Liberal MP, Alex Somlyay, has agreed to support the Labor Government on crucial supply and no-confidence motions – provided he is elected deputy speaker of the House of Representatives.

    Mr Somlyay’s position, confirmed to the Herald this afternoon, contradicts an earlier statement issued by Tony Abbott’s office claiming that Mr Somlyay had rejected Labor’s offer to be deputy speaker.

    Mr Somlyay’s qualified support for the government is a blow to the Opposition Leader, Mr Abbott, and puts him in essentially the same position as independents Robert Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie.

    He will vote according to his own position on individual pieces of legislation, but will not block the budget or side with spurious votes of no-confidence against the government.

    If Mr Somlyay was moved to declare no confidence in the government, he would resign the deputy speaker’s position.

    Labor’s Anthony Albanese has been trying to sign Mr Somlyay up for the Deputy Speaker’s position as both sides battle over who will fill the key positions in the House of Representatives.

    The statement released by Mr Abbott’s office this afternoon, under Mr Somlyay’s name acknowledged this approach, but said Mr Somlyay had rejected it.

    “I have been a proud member of the Liberal party room for 21 years and my commitment to serve the Liberal-National Party remains strong,’’ the statement said.

    “I support the coalition’s decision to reject any pairing arrangements for the Speaker and Deputy Speaker positions.”

    Mr Somlyay now says the statement is wrong.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/liberal-mp-somlyay-open-to-deputy-speaker-role-20100924-15q76.html

  50. [Has Abbott reached a new low?]

    He will blame an over zealous junior staffer, who released an unauthorised press release. The staffer will be re-educated alongside the Workchoices grave. 😆

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