Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 1143, has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, using the more reliable method of allocating minor party and independent preferences according to the last election (Morgan is still using the preference distributions from 2007, but those from 2010 were not significantly different). This is down from 54.5-45.5 a week ago. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 40.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 1.5 per cent to 41 per cent and the Greens are down two to 13 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,392 thoughts on “Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Am keeping an eye on Sky for any Interviews….just love this earlier this a/noon from Sloppy Joe…..
    Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey dismissed the reports Mr Somlyay might agree to act as Deputy Speaker in the new Parliament.

    Asked if Mr Somlyay would face retribution from the Liberal Party if he agreed to the deal, just 24 hours after Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said he would not back such an arrangement, Mr Hockey said, “I don’t believe it will happen. It’s a rumour.”

    AAP

  2. Mr Somlyay’s qualified support for the government is a blow to the Opposition Leader, Mr Abbott, and puts him in essentially the same position as independents Robert Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie.

    Amazing!

  5. Our resident pet dolphin will be beside himself if Leigh Sales quits. Unless he has another role for her…

    Diog, yes, I do 😛

  7. Meanwhile those Jiggling Oz Tea Partyers:

    AussieTeaParty If true, Somlyay would be turning “independent” ie corrupt. And thus finishing his career for a healthy pay increase. Corruption again.
    less than a minute ago via web

  8. And 2 out of 3 for the Dolphin is not bad:

    i dont get it. why cant we have a simple solution.

    1. Speaker from Labor
    2. Deputy speaker from Coalition
    3. both resign from their Party and dont vote.

  9. Gos, I think the Libs should do a Mastercard advertisement:

    Thinking you’ve got the election in the bag? Painful

    Thinking the Indies will undoubtedly come to your side? Stupid

    Sending out the media release you had written for your backbencher before he agreed to what you’ve said he is agreeing to? Priceless

    For everything else, there’s Mastercard.

  10. Has Abbott reached a new low? His colleagues will not be impressed if he’s putting out fake press releases. His credibility will be shot.

    Will the media expose the dirty tricks press release by Abbott’s office or will it be hidden?

    Perhaps those in Abbott’s office share his morality.

  11. Fulvio from previous thread.

    Wasn’t Somilay the guy who was accused of some financial or other impropriety before the election, but was staunchly defended and exculpated in every way by Abbott and the Libs?

    I think there was a bit of fanfare about Slippers cab fares etc as well.

  12. Dee I cannot believe the entire Coalition caucus support Abbott and any that have hung in there just in case they managed to grab Govt, must now be looking very hard at their options.

  13. Somlyay on SBS was not quite saying quite the same thing as SkyNews is saying. It also had Hockey waxing very indignant at the very thought that an electorate would not be represented as a result of a deal that is not happening.

    But I am getting quite confused by this Opposition.

    This Abbott-led Opposition is a chaotic, untrustworthy, incompetent shambles.

  14. george
    Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

    ‘ faceless men” of Liberal Party issuing false press releases on behalf of a Lib MP ‘

    “ron, surely that’ll be tomorrow’s headline in the OO 😛 ”

    George , if it is , shock will descend upon us all 🙂

  16. Rua, the obvious next question if Abbott blames a staffer, would be “Why did you not immediately retract the statement yourself if it was wrong, why did Somylay have to do it?”

    But of course it won’t be asked.

  18. It is amazing that the coalition continually proclaims it has the capacity for people to voice contrary opinions, but Abbott will not allow anyone onto the CC c’tee unless they are spokesmen for the naysayers side, and now Somlyay will be considered a traitor for doing what the liberal party stands for — self-preservation.

    From our side, Somlyay is to be applauded because he will not sit back and allow duplicity — even if he is a lib. Perhaps he is Glen in disguise?

    Times like this when I would love to see what argument TTH would put up in response. Can I venture a guess? “Somlyay was never in the Liberal Party anyway. We only let him sit on our side because we needed a token boat person to make us look good.”

  19. Has there been any direct TV, audio or written coverage of Somlyay personally retracting / disagreeing with the earlier Liberal statement? ie something we can clearly rely on?

  21. Here are some direct quotes in the Somlyay article on ABC

    In a statement released this afternoon, Mr Somlyay confirmed he had been approached by Labor to stand as its nominee for the position of deputy speaker on the basis that he would support the Government on no confidence motions and supply bills.

    He says he has refused the offer but will contest the nomination for the position in the Coalition party room on Monday.

    “I have been a proud member of the Liberal Party Room for 21 years and my commitment to serve the Liberal-National Party remains strong,” he said.

    “I support the Coalition’s decision to reject any pairing arrangements for the speaker and deputy speaker positions.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/24/3021438.htm

    I havent seen the full “statement” – does anyone have a link?

    Is there a lawyer in the house?

    I find it incredible that if this was not a statement he put out, that there is not some criminal act involved (not just civil defamation or whatever). Fraud?

  22. markjs@3019 on Essential Research: 50-50 – The Poll Bludger

    my say@2854

    but do you know i think the ordinary person in the street, would of missed all this. and now have not got a clue what going on, so it will just go over their heads,,,,,,,?

    No need to worry about that my say…………the general public are not the important players here……….Abbott has sh*t in his own nest, and his colleagues will turn on him once they realise the implications of what he’s done…..

    my say……..sorry for not getting back to you before……..the decision by Somlyay is what I was referring to…….. Abbott loses credibility in his own party with betrayals like he has just done…

  23. Mr Somlyay now says the statement is wrong.

    What do they mean by ‘now’ says the statement is wrong?
    Implying he agreed with it in the first instance & then changed his mind.

  24. anyone notice one of the scrolling headlines used by slynews this morning? it said,
    “windsor says that labor will be weakened by abbot’s deal made on speaker”?

  27. Their ABC is outdated.

    Liberal MP rejects Labor’s speaker offer
    By online political correspondent Emma Rodgers
    Updated 2 hours 36 minutes ago

    Your SMH is up-to-date

    Liberal MP Somlyay open to Deputy Speaker role
    Jacob Saulwick and Lenore Taylor, SMH
    September 24, 2010 – 6:23PM

    The Liberal MP, Alex Somlyay, has agreed to support the Labor Government on crucial supply and no-confidence motions – provided he is elected deputy speaker of the House of Representatives.

    Mr Somlyay’s position, confirmed to the Herald this afternoon, contradicts an earlier statement issued by Tony Abbott’s office claiming that Mr Somlyay had rejected Labor’s offer to be deputy speaker.

  28. Times like this when I would love to see what argument TTH would put up in response.

    Proof you can never trust a boatie, STOP THE BOATS!

  29. Rua, the obvious next question if Abbott blames a staffer, would be “Why did you not immediately retract the statement yourself if it was wrong, why did Somylay have to do it?”

    But of course it won’t be asked.

    Exactly.

    And why did the ABC and the MSM not confirm this statement was accurate earlier??

    Perhaps I should start making up statements on behalf of MPs and releasing them as I see fit.

    Journalists in this country have, with Mr Abbott, sunk to new lows – even when we thought it impossible.

    A pox on the lot of them.

  30. Fulvio

    It has a Grech feel. And I haven’t gotten it wrong yet either and called a new PM (or new LOTO in this case). Actually I was a right on Gillard replacing Rudd; I was just a bit early.

  42. tth doesn’t argue per se. he merely makes an statement, regardless of its veracity, then accuses anyone who disagrees with him of being a dole-bludging, tree-hugging, assylum-seeker loving, constitution subverting communist!

  43. Every press release from the Libs is now suspect while Abbott remains leader. Labor need to hammer him on this point, the same as Turnbull was shot over Grech. It took 12 months for Turnbull to recover, if he ever did.

  45. Every press release from the Libs is now suspect while Abbott remains leader.

    And every verbal comment from Abbott is even more suspect. He has even admitted this – yet no journalist has called him on it.

    When will the brain-dead slobs at their ABC and MSM wake up to this?

  46. As much as I have no brief with Sky News they have covered this story very well and are streets ahead of ABC24 and the ABC generally. hell I will have to email Keiran Gilbert and congratulate him if he keeps on in this vein, mmm nah better not, be hypocritical.

  47. Hockey thinks it is absurd and just dead wrong.

    He was misquoted – he was talking about the fact that Krispy Kreme will remove their line of donuts with sprinkles.

  48. Hockey is looking increasingly ludicrous, looking more like the Iraqi Information Minister by the day

    Too true. He has totally lost the plot – if he ever had any. His faux indignation is simply crazy.

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