Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 1143, has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, using the more reliable method of allocating minor party and independent preferences according to the last election (Morgan is still using the preference distributions from 2007, but those from 2010 were not significantly different). This is down from 54.5-45.5 a week ago. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 40.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 1.5 per cent to 41 per cent and the Greens are down two to 13 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,392 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  5. Wikipedia again.

    [In the Australian state of Victoria, while suicide itself is no longer a crime, a survivor of a suicide pact can be charged with manslaughter. Also, it is a crime to counsel, incite, or aid and abet another to attempt or commit suicide, and the law explicitly allows any person to use “such force as may reasonably be necessary” to prevent another from committing suicide.]

  8. Climate Change C’tee.

    [But Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is refusing to have any Coalition MPs participate.]

    The Great Denier.
    Climate is not changing.
    Labor did not win government.
    We are always the winners.

  10. [By the way, it was reported when Julia moved into Lodge, that some shockjock described her home in Altona has a rathole. Does anyone know who it was?]

    victoria – SkyNews last night did a job on it as top story. I thought it disgusting and tawdry. I wonder if Abbott had won if they would have led with a story saying he could now afford to pay his mortgage because he’d be saving money bludging on us.

  11. I am personally strongly in favour of legalising euthanasia , but there ARE groups in the community who have very understandable fears about such processes.

    When the Territory legislation was first introduced there was substantial opposition from many Indigenous groups there. A large part of this , I suspect, stemmed from Indigenous experience of situations where Indigenous Australians found themselves without the same rights of “informed consent” as other Australians with respect to many aspects of life. Most NT Aboriginal people were “wards of the state” until the late 1960’s. It was common for Aboriginal people to have “consent” about medical procedures and other matters determined for them by officials with little say of their own about the matter. Even long after this time there were frequent complaints about matters such as the sterilisation of young women and, in more recent times still, the administration of depo-provera without consent.

    The same sort of processes operated in the legal world at that time. Until the arrival of legal aid services in the mid 1970’s Aborigines in the NT were normally represented in court over criminal matters by officials of the “Native Welfare Branch” of the NT administration. It was often the officials, rather than the person on trial, who decided whether a plea of “guilty” or “not guilty” would be lodged. All too often it was the latter, simply because the police themselves claimed the person was “guilty”. The conviction rate plummeted as soon as proper representation became available largely because the police finally had to provide some measure of proof of guilt.

    Many, many, Aboriginal people in the NT when I was there in the late 70s and early 80s were still very frightened indeed of hospitals. The Indigenous death rate once admitted to hospital was much higher than for the non-indigenous population and many people believed, rightly or wrongly, that far less effort was spent trying to keep a black person alive than a white one. Many had other unpleasant experiences there that served to re-inforce their doubts. Staff tended to be both dictaorial and highly insensitive. Two experiences of my own there held to illustrate such things. On one occasion I had ferried a man who had been injured in a fight to the Alice Springs hospital (this was the “old” hospital – before the current one was quite completed). He had a wound which went right through the centre of his foot from top to bottom and was bleeding very profusely. There was literally a pool of blood in the footwell of the passenger seat. By the time we got there he was almost comatose.

    We arrived at casualty. The nurse took one look at him (she knew him by sght) and told me directly, “We don’t take drunk blackfellas here and besides he’s too heavy for you and me to lift and the orderlies are on their tea break” before launching into a moralistic rant aimed at “Johnny” himself, who was far too close to unconsciouness to hear, let alone care.

    After the new hospital opened I spent a few weeks there myself after pouring a wok full of burning fat over my bare feet a few hours by 4 wheel drive out of Alice Springs. (not recommended!) . THere were a few excellent, truly capable stuff there but there were some shockers. Fortunately, even though it was late at night by this time I was able to find one of the newly arrived Aboriginal Congress medical service doctors to look after him before he died.

    One young Pitjantjatjara man , in his early 20’s , who had suffered head injuries in a car accident, was in a ward next to mine for a while. I could here him calling out “kumbu, kumbu” with increasing urgency and buzzed the nurse myself to point out to her that “kumbu” is the word for “piss” in most of the languages spoken west and south of Alice Springs and she went and helped him. (As an aside one might have thought that the staff of a hospital that saw a huge numbers of people from this area might have known such a basic term).

    The next night a different nurse was on duty. Again the process was repeated. Again I buzzed the nurse. This one came in and I explained what he was calling for. “He should use English if he wants help here!” I pointed out that he was suffering from a serious head injury , and that his first language was Pitjantjatjara. She walked out in a huff. The calls persisted and eventually I heard her go to his ward. By this time he’d wet the bed.

    At the top of her voice she began ranting at him “You dirty , dirty boy. What are you , a baby! Now I’ll have to clean this up. You’ll have to wait til I finish my other jobs, you dirty little boy” . (Just by the way, calling an initiated Aboriginal man a “boy” is an extremely offensive insult within Indigenous communities).

    Attitudes like these induced deep scepticism about, and fear of, official health services in generations of Aboriginal people. Yes, it has got better since then in most places, but I find it perfectly understandable that people who have experienced such things would be deeply nervous about the concept of officially sanctioned euthanasia, especially now, at a time when the excesses of the “Intervention” have again seen the Governments placing official constraints on the free agency of Aboriginal people.

    I raise all this, because although many of those who oppose euthanasia may well be people with strong negative views about abortion for religious reasons this isn’t always the case. Aboriginal people are one group whose concerns stem from quite different motivations. I suspect the same may also apply to immigrants from some countries where official powers over life, death and other matters has been far more regularly abused than in the case of most of us.

    As I said, I’m a very strong supporter of the right of people to end their own lives when the circumstances are appropriate, but I can also understand why others may have a different view , and it is not always just because they are seeking to impose their own religious views upon others.

  13. From Laura Tingle to Grog – I hope he takes her advice. His pieces are always a must read.

    [I think you are supposed to start trembling and crawl terrified into a hole at this point. I hope you don’t. about 2 hours ago via web in reply to GrogsGamut]
    http://twitter.com/latingle

  14. [Fortunately, even though it was late at night by this time I was able to find one of the newly arrived Aboriginal Congress medical service doctors to look after him before he died.]

    Whoops. gee I wish it was possible to edit posts here.

    that sentence should be attached to the end of the previous paragraph after ” too close to unconsciouness to hear, let alone care.”

    I should also make it clear that “Johnny” survived that episode.

  15. Abbott’s entire power, prestige and position is premised on his absolute control of his MPs. How long before someone gets jack of the negativity and the usurping of the role of MPs to represent their electorates and participate in the forums of Parliament?

    How long before sensible Libs twig that what goes around comes around? It’s not just Labor that has to be on deck all the time?

  17. the msm and grog.

    noted one blogger said it was the first time he had heard of grog through reading the s
    msm , and googled him and found him and now will read back posts

    so you see its a great day for grog

  19. Oscar, you’ve got to admire the rigour of an “intellectual’ like Flint who is able to offer such fine sources in support of his arguments! :

    [This involved a massive diversion and loss of taxpayers’ money – according to The Australian and 2GB something between $5 and $8 billion dollars – surely the biggest financial scandal in our nation’s history.] 😉

  20. [Gusface
    Posted Monday, September 27, 2010 at 12:03 pm | Permalink
    ratty on their ABC hoping that an alp member dies]

    is that so, is there a link

  22. Good too see News Limited in the UK not wasting time in labelling the new Labour leader a communist

    [
    RED Ed Miliband showed his true colours yesterday – by declaring New Labour DEAD.

    The new Labour leader refused to condemn STRIKES and promised TAX RISES to cut Britain’s crippling debts.

    He also declared war on highly paid bankers and executives.

    But he angrily dismissed claims that he has lurched to the Left or is a trade union stooge. Mr Miliband, 40, insisted: “I’m my own man.”
    ]

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3153956/Eds-redredreddy-for-action.html

  23. [His resignation from the Turnbull front bench, against the advice of the gallery who predicted a subsequent electoral massacre, was for principle, not any leadership ambitions. That the result was that he would become leader surprised him.]

    Gold from the flintster

  25. my say

    abc702 had a grab saying wtte that parl was in a precarious position

    ratty came on and mock concerned that an alp member may die, he really is a nasty piece of work

  26. [The Rudds acquiring a new house in Canberra suggests that he is not intending to quit anytime soon]

    But but… he was going to resign and trigger a by-election that the Libs would win just because…

    I guess he is going for plan B: to support Tone in confidence motions.

    😆

  27. [The inside of David Flint’s head must look a little bit like Wonderland – complete with white Rabbott and mad Katter!]

    Well put, Oscar. Flint always sends me in a fit of apoplexy when I see or hear him, but Howard and Alan Jones love him.

  34. [However, my fear is getting the legislation right so it cannot be accessed for criminal advantage.]

    Quite frankly, if a fatal stroke, heart attack, accident doesn’t do for me fast, I want the right to determine the time and nature of my own death, and have it registered simply as a death, not “suicide”.

    I’m not a member of any religion – I don’t believe in god/s & haven’t for most of my life. I’m old. I spent decades in decision making positions (even taught DM once, though it bored me) rational (most of the time). I’ve known I have SLE for decades, so I knew what was coming as it affected my skin, muscles, blood-vessels & capillaries (the latter causing small strokes & TIAs), heart & pancreas. I cost the national health system thousands of dollars a year in medical visits, diagnostic tests & medications.

    I know what will happen within the next 5 years. I have drawn up a Living Will. Son (having seen what happened to beloved grandparents who never wanted to live in mental & physical agony and/or as vegetables) knows & agrees with my decision. OH will probably not survive until Christmas, so I have no one who depends on me.

    I’d like to die before degeneration makes my organs & whatever useless to those who need them. Knowing my death might give life, sight etc to others, is some repayment for the work of researchers, medication/ machine-developers & guinea pigs who have prolonged my life and minimised suffering. I’ve decided at what stage I want to make an end. I don’t even really care for my own sake that it will be listed as suicide; just that I have religious family members who will care.

    I don’t accept the (Godwin!) excuse. That we are even now forcing people – the dying as well as family & friends – through terrible mental anguish & physical agony on the grounds of what Nazis did, then we are still allowing them to inflict terrible suffering on ever more millions.

  35. [madcyril
    Posted Monday, September 27, 2010 at 12:15 pm | Permalink
    Good too see News Limited in the UK not wasting time in labelling the new Labour leader a communist]

    the last 4 lines why is this so important these days, i love to know the stats on it any one know,

  36. musrum
    [How about a motion of no confidence in Abbott (secret ballot)?]
    If the vote for Deputy Speaker is a secret ballot, that might be the next best thing 🙂

  37. OzPol Tragic @ 2208

    [Curtin, Menzies (& Hughes) Ambassador Casey & others from both sides of politics were patriots and “builders” not wreckers. Abbott’s behaviour is aberrant, even by Howard’s “standards”, and Howard gave decent Liberals (to keep it polite) the shudders.]

    Spot on – Curtin, Chifley, Evatt, Menzies, Casey and even Hughes (who was vilified throughout most of his long parliamentary career as a Labor Rat) were patriots in the sense that, when the war came to our nation’s doorstep in 1942 (after the ‘baton change’ to Labor) they worked constructively towards jointly agreed outcomes, but never lost total sight of their own partisan political interests.

    Tony Abbott, conversely, has thrown that successful template for stable minority Government (which lasted for more than 2 years in the middle of a world war, from the end of 1941 through to the election that was due in August 1943) into the garbage can of history, and has signalled his avowed intent to bring down the elected Gillard Government by any means necessary.

    This man has spat in the face of our democracy, has reneged on written agreements, has bullied MPs, has sent his acolytes in Parliament and in the media to work with their dirt files to denigrate and diminish the Independents and has fundamentally undermined our electoral and parliamentary institutions by threatening to trash decades of bipartisan conventions and agreements.

    Is there no lie too big, no calumny too bellicose, no tradition too precious to destroy, no discredited scheme too tawdry for Tony Abbott to use in his quest to unseat an elected Government?

    The egregious Abbott is not fit to lead the Opposition, let alone to be our nation’s leader.

  38. can we have a motion of no confidence again the opposition, lol

    abbott by not granting pairs and allowing people like the Mr Swan to go to conf.

    he is actully running the country from opp.

  41. Laocoon@2336

    musrum

    How about a motion of no confidence in Abbott (secret ballot)?

    If the vote for Deputy Speaker is a secret ballot, that might be the next best thing

    Nice. Overload an existing procedure to make a point.
    Need to get the word out to the Mob Libs!

  42. The best comment I’ve read re Grog was one that suggested the real issue here was professional jealousy; the idea that professional journalists felt threatened and envious at the attention given to a ‘hobby’ journalist.

    And in the best traditional of the current Liberal party: if you can’t compete on their terms, drag them down any way you can.

  46. [How about a motion of no confidence in Abbott (secret ballot)?]

    No confidence motion in OL successful. Opposition to fall. Labor to take reins of opposition. Abbott vanquished to Prime Ministership.

    Sorry, just channeling the Righties.

  50. rod, you raise some very good points. i must say though, considering the examples you’ve given are at the very least against organisational and professional codes of conduct and possibly illegal, would it be necessary to legalise euthanasia to make health outcomes for indigenous australians worse?

    the attitudes of some in health care professionals towards the people they pledge to do their best for can be appalling at times, but i feel it’s a separate issue to euthanasia. i myself have been on both ends of the stick, though thankfully my errors have been far more mundane and haven’t harmed anyone. working to stop these abuses, which occur now, when euthanasia is illegal, is a separate issue to euthanasia and how we can protect a person’s choice from abuse.

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