Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 1143, has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, using the more reliable method of allocating minor party and independent preferences according to the last election (Morgan is still using the preference distributions from 2007, but those from 2010 were not significantly different). This is down from 54.5-45.5 a week ago. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 40.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 1.5 per cent to 41 per cent and the Greens are down two to 13 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,392 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. It appears that the Press release on Somlyay’s behalf was accurate except it omitted the most important bit – that Alex will support the Govt on Supply and Confidence.

    Maybe they could not get their Liberal fingers to actually type the words. 😆

  7. I suspect if Abbott and his chief head kickers hassle and or threaten Somlyay too much over the next 3 days, history says they will, he could become a little more giving in his attitude towards his Road to Damascus conversion. My reading of this is Somlyay’s beef is not with the Coalition but very much with Abbott personally. I would say, watch this space over the next few days, do not think we have heard the last of this particular episode in the popular series ” The Unhinging of a Monk who is Mad “

  9. [Abbott’s autocratic method of working was responsible for his down fall.]

    His Bruce MacDonald “boots and all” approach will be his downfall.

  10. The one worrying thing is what happens to all the deals on which government currently depends if Turnbull takes back the leadership?

  14. [This unhinged idiot needs to be shut down real quick.]
    I suspect some in the Coalition party think this also.

    One does wonder what tricky strategy the Rabbott was sprouting within the party to take government. With apparently, so many voicing concerns you could only conclude it was unethical. Unethical behaviour & the Rabbott is so prevalent that it beggars belief that he has any support at all.

  15. David

    One of the big problems for leaders of the Opposition is that they only have a very small bag of lollies. Abbott took Somlyay’s lollies away from him. Somlyay has nothing left to lose and responds by chucking a tanti.

    Whatever happens as a result of Abbott’s Speaker Imbroglio, Abbott has used up some more of his mojo.

  17. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 at 7:34 pm | Permalink
    Actually, Truth acted as if to test the patience of a saint. And William was found wanting in the sainthood department.]

    what a cracker boerwar, what about bluey he may have helped?

  20. [David
    Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 at 7:39 pm | Permalink
    my say he was outed for rank stupidity…he is making up for it over at the Crikey site.]

    does he still have the same name over there

  22. Frank – thanks for the link to the actual media release
    [Media Statement from Alex Somlyay
    24/09/10

    I can confirm that I have been approached by the Gillard Government, through the Leader of the House, the Hon Anthony Albanese, to stand as their nominee for the position of Deputy Speaker on the basis that I would support the Government on no confidence motions and supply bills.

    I have declined this approach.

    I have been a proud member of the Liberal Party Room for 21 years and my commitment to serve the Liberal-National Party remains strong.

    After discussions with both the Labor Party and my own leader, the Hon Tony Abbott MHR, I confirm that I will be contesting the nomination for the position of Deputy Speaker in the Coalition Party Room on Monday.

    I support the Coalition’s decision to reject any pairing arrangements for the Speaker and Deputy Speaker positions on the basis that such pairing is inconsistent with the Constitution.]
    http://liberal.org.au/Latest-News/2010/09/24/Somlyay-Media-Statement.aspx

    Surely it will disappear in due course so here it is for posterity 😀

    It reminds me very much of the Obrien interview with Abbott on PPL/tax:
    Obrien says wtte “it is not a little bit different. It is the opposite.”
    Abbott: “Well, well, well Kerry, I accept it is not entirely consistent”
    Obrien: “It’s the complete opposite”

    [I have declined this approach]

  23. I guess Albo’s next move is getting Jenkins to honour the group hug and not sit in the Labor Caucus, will Somlyay withdraw from the Lib Party Room?

    I bet he will. 🙂

  25. [My guess would be longline trolling]

    now you never know whats going to be on the end of a fishing line these days.
    may be we can think of a few things.?.

  26. [My guess would be longline trolling]

    now you never know whats going to be on the end of a fishing line these days.
    may be we can think of a few things.?.

  29. [Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 at 7:42 pm | Permalink
    Castle the next week looks like being the best fun since Grech]

    we should record it for the grandkids

  30. my say, i seem to remember truthy got banned for over the top stupidity.

    WTF is happening in the ranks of the Rabble?? Tone’s stated ambitions for “baton change” during the life of this parliament must be heading down the gurgler at a great rate.

    Its really not a good look for the Libs to spend so much time proving to such a great extent that they REALLY have no capacity to manage Govt unless they have a very substantial majority.

    They are almost becoming the living definition of “unready to govern”. Its sad, but also a bit scarey. I mean, this incompetant bunch didnt lose by that much.

  32. Gos went –

    What a stupendous stuff-up by the Libs if this is true. Losing a backbencher is careless – but sending out the media release you had written for him before he agrees to what you’ve said he is agreeing to is stupid beyond all words.

    There is another word for it – fraud, maybe even *conspiracy* to commit fraud.

    But abbott’s been a fraud all his life.

  33. [172 Laocoon
    Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 at 7:40 pm | Permalink
    Frank – thanks for the link to the actual media releas]

    when mr Somlyay saw this he must of been very surprised.

  34. [Prime Minister Julia Gillard has promised rapid funding measures to make suicide hotspots around Australia more safe.]

    I know I shouldn’t joke about this, but it is so much in line with the unhinging – just in time!

  35. my say ..yes he does TTH and gets the same responses as he gets here, got to give it to him hide as thick as and he keeps going back for more 🙂

  36. [davePosted Friday, September 24, 2010 at 7:45 pm | PermalinkGos went –
    What a stupendous stuff-up by the Libs if this is true. Losing a backbencher is careless – but sending out the media release you had written for him before he agrees to what you’ve said he is agreeing to is stupid beyond all words.
    There is another word for it – fraud, maybe even *conspiracy* to commit fraud.
    But abbott’s been a fraud all his life.]

    This may be of interest – Any Pro Bono Lawyers about ? 🙂

    [BernardKeane Hmmm. The offence of impersonating a Commonwealth public official under the Cth Criminal Code might be worth a look at some point.
    2 minutes ago via TweetDeck
    ]

  37. I wonder when the petition will hit the Court of Disputed Returns regarding the elections in Solomon, Ryan, Herbert and Macarthur 👿

    (the Office of Profit under the Crown/local councillers issue)

  38. immacca said

    [They are almost becoming the living definition of “unready to govern”. Its sad, but also a bit scarey. I mean, this incompetant bunch didnt lose by that much.]

    do you know my oh and i said that just an hour or so ago, and to think he was nearly pm providence truly lent us a hand.

    We should not forget this, and make it a lesson well taught,. i am sure JUlia sees it like this too.

  40. for Instance Obama was talking about something tonight at the Un to do with peace talks, and it crossed my mind o my god what if we where involved in a conflict and they where in.

  41. [DavidPosted Friday, September 24, 2010 at 7:49 pm | PermalinkFrank can you expand on what Bernard is getting at please…
    ]

    Basically the verballing of Allex via Media Release is Norti and Tony will spend a holiday with Bubba 🙂

  42. Hockey is looking increasingly ludicrous, looking more like the Iraqi Information Minister by the day.

    His favourite expression was of course *We will Roast their Stomachs*

    Now if you are going to roast a stomach, you will find few more suitable to roast then Hockey’s 🙂

  43. [Prime Minister Julia Gillard has promised rapid funding measures to make suicide hotspots around Australia more safe]

    very dear friends of ours lost there grandson to this , this week, it really brings it home to you. one just asks WHY

  48. Gaffhook 143 being around at the time as it seems you were as well I didnt understand why it didnt go a step further. It was a coup. Not sure if I’m right here but there were 3 Omega bases that USA needed for their military comms. Greece was 1 and there was a coup there. Aust was another and we had a non-military coup. Was there another?
    Any P”Bers who were not active during 74/75 beware of the conservatives. They will do anything and I mean ANYTHING to have power.

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