Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in Lindsay; 50-50 in Dawson

The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.

For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.

UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.

UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,110 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in Lindsay; 50-50 in Dawson”

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  1. Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but a superb Labor ad was aired on Channel Nine in Perth just now highlighting that John Hewson and Peter Costello had mocked Tony Abbott’s understanding of economics. Most effective ad of the campaign so far, in my opinion.

  3. Oh radical anti-abortion groups on 60 minutes.
    Kevin Andrews is a member of one of these radical US groups that think it is OK to kill, harrass and stalk doctors, nurses & patients.

  4. William Bowe@2851

    Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but a superb Labor ad was aired on Channel Nine in Perth just now highlighting that John Hewson and Peter Costello had mocked Tony Abbott’s understanding of economics. Most effective ad of the campaign so far, in my opinion.

    Like I said, best to run these ads in the final 2 weeks of a campaign when people are starting to take notice.

  5. Wtte
    I am not a human interest story, I am Prime Minister of this country….I am involved in the middle of an election campaign, I am focussing on the issues….

    ROTFLMAO clutching a copy of Womens Weekly.

  7. [Kevin Andrews is a member of one of these radical US groups that think it is OK to kill, harrass and stalk doctors, nurses & patients.]
    Andrews is of the Sharon Angle ilk. She is standing against Harry Reid in the US mid term Senate elections. She makes Sarah Palin look intelligent and worthwhile. (But of course, she’s not),

  11. my say @ 2796

    [any way it had to be some in the house whose birthday was the last one held
    thats me i said in to the conversation some how she worked out that i was not 18]

    This is a typical method used by telephone polling to ‘randomise’ the person in the household that the interviewer speaks to – “may I speak to the person in the household whose bithday is next?” or “… whose birthday is closest to today’s date?” If they do this properly, they either speak to that person, or make a callback to speak to that person at a later time.

    This is meant to provide an even spread of ages and genders spoken to, and to obviate the bias inherent in always speaking to the person to answers the phone, which is known to be a woman in 60% of households.

    Nothing mysterious about this process, nor about asking to speak to respondents of specific ages/genders, if an age or gender quota is required to complete a specific representative sample.

  15. Grog:

    http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com/2010/08/election-2010-day-22-or-yes-this-is.html

    Seriously, his manifesto is like something you’d hear a ten year old come up with in a school project.

    What I would do if I was Prm Prime Minister
    by Tony Abbott (age 10)

    If I was prime minister I wood would stop the boat people and send them to nooroo Nauru.

    I wood would make that the mining companys companies paid no tax. I wood would make a gren green army to silence dissidents help the envoroment environment. I want to end Labor’s waistfull wasteful spending.

    I like a guided democracy ??? and have a family which means I am a beter better leader!

    End the sop opra! soap opera?. No doesn’t always mean no NOT APPROPRIATE! – see me after class!

  17. [Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but a superb Labor ad was aired on Channel Nine in Perth just now highlighting that John Hewson and Peter Costello had mocked Tony Abbott’s understanding of economics. Most effective ad of the campaign so far, in my opinion.]

    Was on here in sydney too

  21. [Andrews in radical group that boycotts Disney
    Sydney Morning Herald, 05 August 2007

    Besieged Federal Immigration Minister Kevin Andrews is an adviser to a radical right-wing international organisation that advocates economic boycotts to achieve social and political change.

    Mr Andrews is officially listed as a board member to Life Decisions International (LDI), whose most recent boycott list includes respected global pharmaceutical leader GlaxoSmithKline and entertainment giant Walt Disney.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/andrews-in-radical-group-that-boycotts-disney/2007/08/04/1185648204452.html

    Andrews the “radical”. Great. :/

  22. Dee @ 2780

    [Take a deep breath & do something else other than watch politics for awhile.
    If it is meant to be then so be it. We won’t like it but hey, we have been here before.]

    I arrived in this great country in 1964. By my very rough calculations (and I’m open to correction) I’ve lived 63% of that time under a Liberal Govt. I was hoping, and still am in my attempt to be positive, to reduce this percentage somewhat as I can’t for the life of me think of one thing really positive that the Liberals did in that time.

    All I can recall are Conscription; sending young men to die in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq; record inflation and interest rates; selling national assets (although Labor did a bit of that as well); handouts to the well-off (oh, and a sop or two to pensioners at strategic times); licking a*** with the US, and in Menzies’ day, the UK; scandals like AWB, children overboard, homophobia, misogyny and the “black armband view” of history.

    About all I remember Menzies doing, apart from being a right tit in his adoration of the Queen and dressing up in funny costume as Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports, was to finally get Canberra up and running as the national capital by forcing govt departments to move out of their cosy offices in Melbourne. That at least was a positive after years of inaction, although to be fair to earlier politicians there was a little matter of two rather large wars and a depression to get through.

    I moved from Scotland to Canberra, population then was c80,000, no traffic lights (well that was a plus I suppose), few permanent government buildings although some were being built, even fewer embassies – most were located in small office buildings. I know a few on here like to knock the city but it is a vast improvement to what it was then and, now that I recall, I seem to remember it was Whitlam in any case who got the National Gallery etc up and running.

    Every time the Libs got into power there were “razor gangs” mass reductions in the public service, which ended up saving very little anyway as a lot of the reduction was not by attrition but redundancy payments, only to have to fill the job again later down the track when it was found to be required after all. My organisation was slashed by over 200 people (out of 450). Funnily enough it was up nearer 500 not that long after!

    As for the rest of the country, well we have precious little in the way of decent infrastructure, a railway system to rival Kenya’s, ports that would look good in Liberia and a rural highway system that is up there with a third world dictatorship. I won’t bother going on, or I’ll slash my wrists.

    And this is the mob that has a real chance of taking power in a couple of weeks. Yes, we’ll live through it, but why the hell has it got so close in the first place? I still can’t understand it.

  23. Within three months of Abbott election – COAG will meet to secure agreement on hospital boards and beds.

    Hospital Boards the darling of the corrupt Bjelke-Petersen regime where the National Party was able to retain power in rural areas by controlling jobs in hospitals. What a desperate joke this policy has proven to be whenever implemented in the past.

  25. We’re getting 30 second “Old Julia-new Julia didn’t-won’t stop the boats” in Adelaide.

    I’m really hating this election.

  26. You just have to look at the cuts that the new coalition govt is doing in the UK, to see what abbott will do here. The latest there is a cancellation of a $110 million program to rebuild schools.

  27. Momentous and cataclysmic events can befall any nation. I ponder who is best equipped to deal with what may come – a strong person like Julia who is standing up in adversity or Abbott, who is hiding behind his puppet masters and avoiding any scrutiny?

    I know who I’ll choose.

  28. Bigpond news page, top headline:

    “Coalition launch a policy-free zone”

    This is the first bad headline for the Coalition I’ve seen there.

  29. [Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but a superb Labor ad was aired on Channel Nine in Perth just now highlighting that John Hewson and Peter Costello had mocked Tony Abbott’s understanding of economics. Most effective ad of the campaign so far, in my opinion.]

    I agree William. It brightened the night in this household. Seen it on Channels Nein and 1-0 in Adelaide.

    Only ten more days of TV ads.

  30. janice 2 @ 2831

    [Me thinks you got the wrong election – Keating was mobbed during the election campaign which ended in ‘the sweetest victory of all’.]

    No – it was the 1996 campaign against Howard, and it was in Parramatta where the girls from Our Lady of Mercy College (good Catholics lasses all, no doubt) mobbed the equally Catholic then PM.

    Didn’t do him any good, because he lost the election, but I don’t think it did any harm either.

  31. [Within three months of Abbott election – COAG will meet to secure agreement on hospital boards and beds.]

    No he’s cutting those remember?

  33. Bigbob,

    As the punters say, “Wot, no tax cuts”? The Nats say, “where’s my rort”?

    The Coalition are promising nothing. I’m sure they will make sure we get it if elected.

  34. OMG, you cant leave the country for a week or two before the Tories are winning. I still blame it on Diog. But dont despair, i will be back in the last week and election is won or lost in the last week 👿

  35. [No he’s cutting those remember?]

    He might be speaking different things in different places. In Queensland he has been running around promoting local National Party type hospital boards.

  36. Totally agree with The Big Ship. I remember it as if it was yesterday. Keating had just come out of a planned visit to somewhere and as he was just about to enter his car, the girls saw him and started screaming. Keating walked across and climbed the brick fence.

    Later on, the Liberals acknowledged that Labor won that day…………..unfortunately, the only day they won in the 1996 election.

  37. @Dee 2874,

    Well, nutcases certainly – but are they dangerous?

    By the way, here is a partial list of companies that they are against (taken from their website) because they apparently promote a “Culture of Death”:

    [Among the groups included are Outward Bound West, American Automobile Association (AAA), Kaiser Permanente, The Salvation Army, American Cancer Society, Dr. Phil Foundation, American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), Camp Fire, Girl Scouts, Kiwanis Club, Rotary International, March of Dimes, Lions Club, Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation, American Diabetes Association, the Ronald McDonald House, and the Young Womens Christian Association (YWCA). ]

    I must admit, though – I always had doubts about Ronald McDonald!

  39. They would be getting their news from real journos – I didn’t click through as I am working on uni stuff (or should be!).

    As I said, it’s the first real negative I’ve seen on that site.

    Perhaps the journo’s have been waiting for the launches to go all out on policy?

    One can only hope.

  40. I know there’s been plenty of mention re: the bookies, but I don’t think I’ve seen anything here re: Intrade.

    http://www.intrade.com/

    There is a discrepancy between the two (realistic) markets:
    Labor – 52.0
    Coalition – 30.0

    If I understand Intrade correctly, in a two horse race those ‘prices’ should = 100.00 or thereabouts. So perhaps some money to be made there.

  41. [Can you imagine making such references in the company of multi-national dignitaries? If the Rabbott becomes the PM he will be our equivalent of George W Bush. There will be pages of inappropriate Rabbottisms.]

    The Bushisms were simply head-over-heels verbal incompetence. But can the same be said for Rabbottisms?

    Who’s to say the “guided democracy” thing was a foot-in-mouth moment or a joke? Remember, a lot of serious things are said in jest.

    And the “I thought no meant no” remarks. That wasn’t an accident; it was premeditated, rehearsed and deliberate. We know this because he said it FOUR TIMES against a FEMALE opponent.

    I think the Liberals would soon replace this fool with Turnbull (though he’s another shoot-first, think-later type) … rather than see their “leader” and party achieve laughing-stock status.

  42. Allan Moyes
    [And this is the mob that has a real chance of taking power in a couple of weeks. Yes, we’ll live through it, but why the hell has it got so close in the first place? I still can’t understand it.]
    You only have to look at the continual character asassination by the opposition with the help of the media. It has been relentless.
    No longer considered a conspiracy. It has been duly noted by the likes of John Hewson & other commentators are daring to mention the ‘B’ias word.
    If it is meant to be, well so be it but don’t resign yourself just yet. Things can turn in a day. 😉

  44. holycow1 @ 2834

    [market researchers can usually tell from the the voice as to how old the respondent is.]

    That may, or may not be true, but it is irrelevant to the survey process, as the interviewers are trained to ignore such irrelevancies, and concentrate on the script that they are reading, and recording the respondent’s answers without error, or bias.

    For the most part, telephone interviewers will be younger people who may be studying at Uni, or TAFE, and are employed casually. The interviewing shifts they tend to work, which for residential interviewing commence at about 5pm, and finish by 8.30pm on a weeknight, or from 10am to 5pm on weekends, are convenient for those studying, or with other jobs.

    To imply that ‘market researchers’ deliberately exclude some age groups from their samples is plain wrong – in fact the opposite is the case, as for an opinion poll they would strive to meet a pre-set quota that includes a representative spread of locations, ages and genders.

    Better for you not to speculate on things that you do not know about.

  45. [There will be pages of inappropriate Rabbottisms.]

    He made some Hawke-like unbelievable promise about poverty in his campaign launch today. Has anybody seen a transcript of it. Hang on there will be one at the OO for sure.

  47. Oscar
    There were a couple of other Coalition members that were members of some of these ratbag groups.
    Cannot say for sure but I thought the Rabbott was one.

  48. Hmm, not a proper debate as such:

    Latika Bourke latikambourke

    JG and TAbbott will appear separately at Town Hall style-meeting at Rooty Hill RSL on Wed. 1 hr each – not a debate tho. #ausvotes 2 minutes ago via Echofon from here Retweeted by you and 3 others

  50. Radguy

    [Despite the fact the I completely disagree with you Mick.]

    Kudos man! *thumps chest with single fist at 45% in an act of solidarity*

    Now that is the kind of attitude I respect!

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