The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.
For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.
UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.
UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.
Abbott sleeps through stimulus vote after dinner + ‘couple of bottles’ of wine, reported via the daily telegraph.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/abbott-snoozed-through-key-vote/story-e6freuzr-1111119064644
Thanks William and at 1.40 am, you are a legend.
5 threads in a 24 hour period (it even works out as in a day in the WA timezone). This must be a record for this blog.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@2
You do realise it’s still only 11.46pm on a Friday Night here in WA 🙂
I really should be down at South Terrace throwing bottles at cop cars with the other kids my age.
From the linked OO article:
“Ms Gillard’s boost in Lindsay came after she promised to fix the problem of asylum-seekers, a leading issue in the western Sydney electorate, and campaigned with the Labor MP for Lindsay, Steve Bradbury, on border protection, inspecting navy patrol boats.”
Steve…. he watched everyone else fall over, and won a gold medal. That seems to be Abbott’s theory at the moment….
William Bowe@5
Since when have 39 Yr olds done that Don’t you mean sitting outsides Gino’s and watching the “Passegata” ? 🙂
50- 50 in Dawson is good news….think it shows we are coming back in Qld…..i thought Dawson was gone for all money a week or two back
[Since when have 39 Yr olds done that Don’t you mean sitting outsides Gino’s and watching the “Passegata” ?]
38, ta very much.
William Bowe@9
Well you will be 39 in 2 months 🙂
They’re holding a by-election in Armadale to celebrate.
[You do realise it’s still only 11.46pm on a Friday Night here in WA ]
@Frank
🙂 Well it’s 1.32am in Adelaide. Yaawwn.
@william 11
[They’re holding a by-election in Armadale to celebrate.]
Where you all will QandA, i.e.strip naked and chase drunken koalas through the streets.
[I really should be down at South Terrace throwing bottles at cop cars with the other kids my age.]
You have a South Terrace? Mind you, South Terrace here is just just a bunch of private residences bordered by the parklands.
And a 38 year old? Throwing bottles? Even for a westerner, that’s a bit too young 😉
Every girl under about 30 I have spoken to in Lindsay this week is going to vote for Gillard. I work around there every night and speak to everyone I come into contact with re the election and am getting very pro ALP responses. I also have a lot of workmates that live in that electorate who I am taliking around 1 at a time. Strange thing is the ALP is on the nose in lindsay and people seem to want to go with the flow but once you set em straight about a few issues they then start to come to their senses and realise that Abbott is a jerk!
My best mate lives in Lindsay and is voting for LNP because his parents allways voted LNP so he does and he is 46 !!!
Does anyone else think that doling out around $80k including baby bonus , per child to wealthier families is obscene …. I do and so do plenty of others.
cheers
TSOP 14
[ South Terrace here is just just a bunch of private residences bordered by the parklands.]
Do you mean South Tce in the cbd or the one between bridge rd and main north rd past parafield? I think you could throw all the bottles you like there and all you would get is score cards.
[My best mate lives in Lindsay and is voting for LNP because his parents allways voted LNP so he does and he is 46 !!!]
How did he vote in 07?
[Do you mean South Tce in the cbd or the one between bridge rd and main north rd past parafield? I think you could throw all the bottles you like there and all you would get is score cards.]
Scary thing is, I know what you refer to. (lived in Clearview years back) Alas, I was talking about the CBD.
TSOP Mate voted LNP in 2007 … Rusted on Liberal who thinks Liberals are allways better at running the country.
I did manage to get him to join a union last year though.
cheers
pual j @15
[because his parents allways voted LNP so he does and he is 46 !!!]
I take it he is planning to leave home one day.
Paul_J. While, I’m sure you’re mate is great (I, for one, don’t hold one’s politics against them if deciding they’re friendship material or not) the fact that, even in 2007, he is not willing to vote (or preference) Labor means that he is hardly a litmus of how the country is going and I wouldn’t worry too much about him.
BeaglieBoy post 8…any chance the arrival of the name Rudd has anything to do with it?
it is time some of you starting looking at reality…Julia cannot win on her own. Why are you not questioning where are all the senior front benchers of the Ministry? Why in all the TV and printed media there is no mention of anyone but Roxon and Burke and sometimes Crean…where the hell are the so called loyalists of Gillard…who supported her in the coup….all I hear in these blogs is Gillard is not so good or Gillard is better but or Gillard performed well today didn’t she? Where is Albanese? not a word? Where are the great union men? Combet the disappearing man. Now they all sit back as they have done for the past 3 weeks and expect the one man, the man they threw out as Pm TO GET THEM OUT OF THE CRAP THEY CREATED.
Why don’t you people start being honest and say exactly how you really feel in your gut instead of this outward cover up.
Ask yourselves why there is little or no union advertising? Nurses excepted.
Ask yourselves why this a shambles of a campaign.
Ask yourselves who is pulling Julia’s strings and why
Ask yourselves who is the only one who is showing enough guts to pile into Abbott.
Ask yourselves why are you deceiving yourselves.
PUFF 20
He has a wife and 2 kids and is a great bloke really, I however take some consolation in the fact that some of his union fees are financing anti Tony adds. … he doesn’t 😉
cheers
paul j
[his union fees are financing anti Tony adds]
LOL So there maybe hope for the children? 😉
me@20 my late night attempt at wit 🙂
David, you’re not alone in your thinking. I switched back to green for these reasons. They have a much better mission statement. By all means express your feelings, but be aware that libs troll here. Most libs are forthright, but sneaky tricks happen here.
From the last thread someone said:-
[ Rudd holds a seat and is part of the govt ]
NO.
Rudd is a member of the federal parliament. However he is NOT part of the govt. He is a member of the political party which supplies the govt. The government comprises those MPs who are ministers. Media reports suggest that following his assassination, Rudd asked to be a Minister. However, Gillard failed and refused to appoint him a Minister. Presumably, at that time, Gillard did not want him to be part of the govt.
LOL! If the Coaltards are only getting 52 in WA then Gillards pissed on yer yer man Nelson or whateva.
Give up!
That was an absolutely minimal reshuffle.
I am putting Greens absolute last on my Senate ballot paper.
Peter Young@27
Rubbish – Julia asked him immediately if he wanted a Ministry – rudd declined.
Get your facts straight.
Who’s the Liberal leader again?
[Who’s the Liberal leader again?]
Chris Mitchell.
Actually Peter, the “government” is often taken to refer to the governing party (or parties) and its members, including the back bench. From the ACT Parliament website glossary:
[Under the Westminster system, the party with the majority of votes on the floor of the house forms Government. The Chief Minister is the head of the Government. The Government consists of the Chief Minister, up to four Ministers and Members on the backbench.]
Hmm, makes sense 🙂
Thanks again all, riveting stuff.
[Labor lobs Rudd into marginals: KEVIN Rudd will be wheeled out in one of Labor’s most vulnerable seats in Queensla]
Given Kevin’s recent operation, the wording could have been a bit more subtle.
i have been to centrebet and looked at all the betting on all the seats in the country.From this i worked out 81 seats in favour of labor , 67 coalition, 3 independents and 1 green. Will keep tracking this.
I occasionally tell people off for pasting articles in their entirety, but on grounds of urgent national interest, here’s one by Lindsay Tanner in today’s Australian that doesn’t seem to be online.
SNIP: It does now (thanks, Sir O).
Newspoll Marginals pdf:
http://media.theaustralian.com.au/pdf/100807-%20MarginalseatsNewspoll.pdf
Link to that is here William :-
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/vacuous-media-leaks-credibility/story-e6frgd0x-1225902269541
lindsay labor $1.46 lib $2.53 dawson lib $1.56 lab $2.30
Laurie Oakes doing his best Thomas Paine Imprreseesion (or is that the other way around ?)
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/election/will-the-reborn-rudd-be-gillards-saviour/story-fn5zmod2-1225902259065
Another story hits the decks which demonstrates why many NSW residents feel Labor can’t be trusted.
DAY 1 story – Cherie Burton loses her licence for DUI
DAY 2 story – Cherie Burton refused to give breath sample
Della sprays the “professional politician”.
“Leaders were leaders … and campaign directors had travelled the beaten track, been to the school of hard knocks and were footy-loving, beer drinking, straightforward, ex-shearers with a popular touch and no uni degree.
“In the ’70s the Labor campaign director was well-liked, a fair dinkum Aussie larrikin, not a member of the detested caste of ruthless robotic machine men that run Labor’s campaigns today.”
John Della Bosca’s blast on ALP officials
It will be interesting to see how that goes down with the punters.
Maybe they won’t read it, or even if they do, be too pre-occupied at the races or the footie this weekend to even care.
It looks like Della has an admirer in Morris iemma, who appears to share some of his views:-
“There’s no science to it with these blokes,” laments Iemma, who says the previous generation of NSW machine men — Stephen Loosley, John Della Bosca, Graham Richardson — were “much more sophisticated and street smart”, having served as apprentices to Sussex Street’s maestro, John Ducker. “A transition is always brutal,” Iemma says.
…….
“But Mark and Karl don’t work that way. It’s a very simplistic model. Polling and focus groups trigger the move on a leader. You get a fresh face. You trash the person who’s been replaced,” he says.
“What happens is the only thing that gets trashed ultimately is the brand. In NSW the brand is so trashed it’s very difficult to recover.”
Myth of the bloodless coup
cud chewer
last thread my suport of a net filter
caused you cud chewer to say I’m of “christain right”
caused Bateman to say I’m for th NSW right favoring “totalitarism”
caused Batemen a split second later to add extra spice saing I can not even spell
caused blogger “Puff th magic Dragon to say something so forgetable I forgot it , puff
caused Jon to say I’m “wilfully ignorant” (so Julia , Kevin , Wayne & Lindsay th same)
you guys all intelectuals of renown & Uni trained , and thats your best for hevens sake
well starters th net filter is a caviar lattee issue , and of zero govt changing effect , a fact that must send youse bonkers of your irrelevanse to public opinion
second – 3 largest IPS’s Telstra Opus and Primus , plus Google advised th Govt publicly and to Julia they CAN and WILL comply with th Net Filter
(so dikheads here claiming technical expertise ar shonks compared to above experts)
third ASIO (for terroism) and Federol Police (for child porn) get an extra weapon to protect to reduce our society from such nutter terrorists and scum porn child viewers
four This terorism and child porn smut HAS been illegal on th Net already for 18 years via 1992 Broadcast Act (with a filter mechanism provided for) , youse abit slow on Law
Fifthly McNair is a repute pollster and there Q was to correct Batemans lie was
“Are you in favour or not in favour of having a mandatory government filter that would automatically block all access in australia to overseas websites containing …?”
80% said yes , so that leaves anti filters in big hole of fringe set
(similar to diff poll saying 81% of Aussies say they ‘culterally christian’ , (9% undecided
sixly anti filter Bateman uses an online poll re th net filter to say Net Filter is opposed
You may get away with saying a online poll has credense in a kindygarden but not on PB , we know online polls useless like Channel 9 ‘s online polls & Australian’s online pols
IN summarys , it seems anti filters is made up of about 5 factions !
anti God ers (julai’s atheism put a pin in that) , Big Brother worriers (soory 1984 has been and gone) , technical amaturs , hippy lover libartariens wanting all smut to be allowed on th Net whatever , and transparansy concerners
Seems there is also sub factions of each , and also criss cross dressers betraying one facton for another when u run out of arguments – a mixed crowd you lot
I (and indeed Labor Govt as its since acted 2 weeks ago some of it already ) got strong sympathy for transparansy concerners faction only , in respects to secret list , oversite (now planned) appeal process (now planned) , notice to sites blocked (now to be immediate) ,and definition titening up of term RC rated so that it only EVER can include what it says it includes (more work via planed consulation) I do suggest those interested in transparancy diff segments to be part of soluton and send subs in or contact Labors wonderful Kate Ellis direct after 21/8 (she very approachable , and indeed ran a inta active live site for a mth to many anti filterers concerned
NB/ Funny , never yet heard an anti filter bloggr post THEY oppose child porn on Net !
Petals , now i’ve addressd a campiagn issue (a Net Filter) that Julia said she supports , you could post on issues that will sway oz voters by 21/8 , of which a net filter isn’t , but if it did it it would be a vote winner for Labor (that 80% in favor)
And a ray of sunshine , for those in depths of Poll despairs
Polls only measure oz wide AVERAGE , and when close mean zap as swings never unicorn
so there fore seeing Labor has notion 88 seats and likey p/ups 2 vic and 1 SA is 91 seats
where th hell is there 17 seats for Liberals to pick up , think not
Be Afraid – VERY Afraid.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/the-leaders/abbott-declares-war-on-youth-dole-20100806-11oid.html
Ron I and other have been saying this for some time. At this stage of the campaign we need to look at state wide polls and also marginal seats. I think this is what William is trying to do as the campaign draws to an end. What concerns me is that the information published has not shown the extent of the undecided. Either everyone is decided and they swing with a definite opinion or the polls published here are missing crucial information. My main interest is the Senate and it seams to be decided. (With the exception of SA – The Xenophon factor)
Things are unbearably close but that means there’s still a good chance Labor can squeak by.
Hmm, so WA is the dealmaker ?
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/7723521