Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

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  1. [If it’s 52/48 it’s not very interesting at all actually. It just confirms what we already know]

    Except that Essential is usually higher for Labor than the other polls, so it’s more like 50-50. I’d like to know why the 2PP isn’t higher with 41% PV.

  2. I switched to Twitter, lots of positives for Swan and brickbats for Hockey. People surprised at Swans improvement.

  3. Hockey was genuinely atrocious, anybody who even scores it even a draw obviously knows jack shit about economics.

  4. his entire premise (sloppy) was “this is a bad govt, trust me. You need to trust me on this. Trust me. TRUST ME!”

    His non answer to the West Oz blokes question on Warren Truss announcement of approx 40b worth of transport measures was bizarre. Its like he is deaf.

  5. [You have go to say with the americans they may not have to vote but they seem to tune in to debates or does it just look like that from here]

    Given that they’ve got over 500 cable channels and most of the only 50% of adults who actually vote have cable, then I reckon they’re on a par with us.

    By the way, we tend to overlook the fact that USA’s voter turnout is diminished by all general Federal elections being held on a Tuesday in November. As well as people not having time for the long cues after work, many states (like my brother in Denver) have copped snowing for a month already. Postal voting numbers for an exciting election like 2008 are becoming a significant proportion.

  6. They are replaying Julia’s conference on sky news. It is fantastic, especially when she answers questions re Costello ad. She is in A plus form today.

  7. If Sky call it a draw it means that Swan won by a huge margin.

    If it was an actual draw Sky would have called it a huge victory for the Liberals.

    If Hockey had have won, it would have been a “game changer” and the “end of a troubled govt”, etc etc etc.

    Really piss poor effort, and these fools trying to tell us black is white is even more infuriating.

  8. The best tweet IMHO (no bias of course 🙂 )
    [firstdogonmoon Does Joe sound whiney and petulant or is it just me? You have to work hard to make Wayne look good. #npc ]

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