Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

  1. The Magical Liopleurodon,

    Do you get the feeling that the Australian electorate is Charlie and Abbott & co. are the other unicorns? πŸ˜‰

    Personally, I reckon Abbott is most like Carl the Llama!

  2. stupid ? re gillard/rudd ffs. so sick of that so boring. Has joe given us any figures prmises for costings etc

  3. Hockey just said “we don’t know who will be Labor’s finance minister”

    Thinking on that, if Labor wins could that be a position for Rudd? It certainly wouldn’t require booting out anybody already in a portfolio.

  4. Do you get the feeling that the Australian electorate is Charlie and Abbott & co. are the other unicorns?

    It feels like that some days

  5. So i wonder what would be the audience this time of the day retirees dr waiting rooms nursing homes. may be none of that.
    You have go to say with the americans they may not have to vote but they seem to tune in to debates or does it just look like that from here

  6. Way back there was a link to Paul Sheehan’s SMH article. In the comments was this….

    “The silence of the media in letting Abbott claim some sort of high ground on waste is deafening. In 1997, Howard bought 11 Seasprite helicopters second hand, and then spent $1 billion on trying to make them work. They failed and, in 2008, the whole project was scrapped. That’s $1 billion, $1000,000,000! Then there is the $4 billion spent on the subs to make them quiet. They are as quiet as an AC/DC concert. That’s another $4 billion. Then there was the $4 billion spent on the illegal invasion of Iraq although the greatest waste there was the hundreds of thousands on innocent women and children killed or injured in the bombing attacks of the invaders. The media has never called anyone to account for this atrocity.

    My local state primary school is getting 6 new classrooms to replace 40 year old portables, new reading areas, a performing arts space and a community meeting area – no “school hall” at all.

    Paul | Caulfield – August 09, 2010, 8:14AM”

    Had recently thought about the waste in the military budget – but couldn’t recall the details. Thanks to Paul from Caulfield for the info.

  7. [VERY interesting Essential Report poll coming.]

    Interesting. Although, still have to question Essential’s reliability, given the past few weeks’ worth of results.

  8. My say,

    Psephos posted this last night. I’ve filed it away in My Documents.

    [I don’t understand this stuff about the primary vote. Seats are decided on the 2-party vote. If we poll 26% and a party polling 25% gives us all their preferences, we win the seat.]

    As per Pseph’s comment, in 2002 Michael Organ was elected the first and only Greens House of Reps MP in Cunningham, NSW.

    Organ beat Labor’s Sharon bird with only 23% of primaries, but 52% after preferences.

    In ’04, Organ’s preferences slumped enough for Bird to win comfortably.

    Cunningham is now one of Labor’s safest seats (and Bird is a hardworking, widely respected local member).

  9. If the Coalition don’t submit their costings, then the media has absolutely no excuses left.

    They will need to roast the Coalition over it.

    No policy should escape from the ‘Where is the Treasury costing?’ question.

    FFS, this was their big ‘election honesty’ policy implementation and at their first test, they are looking like failing it miserably.

  10. [Breaking weeks of relative stability on the primary vote, the Coalition has increased 3% to 42% and Labor has increased 1% to 41%, to reduce the 2PP gap to 52-48%, the narrowest it has been since Julia Gillard replaced Kevin Rudd. The Greens have slumped to 10%, their lowest level of support since May.]

    Essential from crikey

  11. [Breaking weeks of relative stability on the primary vote, the Coalition has increased 3% to 42% and Labor has increased 1% to 41%, to reduce the 2PP gap to 52-48%]

    If that is correct the 52-48 TPP is looking OK for a labor return of govt.

  12. so is that primary vote good, if we can get the other polls us or do the average
    william , William are u know starting to feel better.

  13. Swan absolutely roasted Hockey today. Given that Swan has the charisma of a brick, that isn’t a very good reflection on Hockey’s abilities.

  14. [no its not my say, but it is considered exceedingly poor form]

    And a complete free kick to the govt who can hammer, hammer, hammer

    economy
    economy
    economy

  15. Psephos,

    I reckon Keane is most interested in the Green vote coming back to normal levels in this poll.

    If that holds, they’ll get 7% or so on the day.

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