UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.
GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.
UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.
[its on abcnews24]
According to the TV guide it’s also on ABC1.
The Magical Liopleurodon,
Do you get the feeling that the Australian electorate is Charlie and Abbott & co. are the other unicorns? 😉
Personally, I reckon Abbott is most like Carl the Llama!
What i am trying to work out is the proable viewing audience
nomes
stupid ? re gillard/rudd ffs. so sick of that so boring. Has joe given us any figures prmises for costings etc
poor old Dems…. i liked their middle ways… but they just couldn’t keep it together.
That’s it. Sloppy has morphed into a sideshow clown!
Hockey just said “we don’t know who will be Labor’s finance minister”
Thinking on that, if Labor wins could that be a position for Rudd? It certainly wouldn’t require booting out anybody already in a portfolio.
[What i am trying to work out is the proable viewing audience]
Pretty low at this time of day, wherever it’s shown.
[Bernard Keane
Hmmm. VERY interesting Essential Report poll coming.]
Do you get the feeling that the Australian electorate is Charlie and Abbott & co. are the other unicorns?
It feels like that some days
So i wonder what would be the audience this time of the day retirees dr waiting rooms nursing homes. may be none of that.
You have go to say with the americans they may not have to vote but they seem to tune in to debates or does it just look like that from here
Way back there was a link to Paul Sheehan’s SMH article. In the comments was this….
“The silence of the media in letting Abbott claim some sort of high ground on waste is deafening. In 1997, Howard bought 11 Seasprite helicopters second hand, and then spent $1 billion on trying to make them work. They failed and, in 2008, the whole project was scrapped. That’s $1 billion, $1000,000,000! Then there is the $4 billion spent on the subs to make them quiet. They are as quiet as an AC/DC concert. That’s another $4 billion. Then there was the $4 billion spent on the illegal invasion of Iraq although the greatest waste there was the hundreds of thousands on innocent women and children killed or injured in the bombing attacks of the invaders. The media has never called anyone to account for this atrocity.
My local state primary school is getting 6 new classrooms to replace 40 year old portables, new reading areas, a performing arts space and a community meeting area – no “school hall” at all.
Paul | Caulfield – August 09, 2010, 8:14AM”
Had recently thought about the waste in the military budget – but couldn’t recall the details. Thanks to Paul from Caulfield for the info.
[VERY interesting Essential Report poll coming.]
Interesting. Although, still have to question Essential’s reliability, given the past few weeks’ worth of results.
It is on ABC1
Swannie going for hockey. “are you saying you are not going to lodge them.”
My say,
Psephos posted this last night. I’ve filed it away in My Documents.
[I don’t understand this stuff about the primary vote. Seats are decided on the 2-party vote. If we poll 26% and a party polling 25% gives us all their preferences, we win the seat.]
As per Pseph’s comment, in 2002 Michael Organ was elected the first and only Greens House of Reps MP in Cunningham, NSW.
Organ beat Labor’s Sharon bird with only 23% of primaries, but 52% after preferences.
In ’04, Organ’s preferences slumped enough for Bird to win comfortably.
Cunningham is now one of Labor’s safest seats (and Bird is a hardworking, widely respected local member).
Andrw Robb looking shifty.
Swab laughing at Hockey. When Joe, When Joe.
Hockey getting rattled. really rattled.
If the Coalition don’t submit their costings, then the media has absolutely no excuses left.
They will need to roast the Coalition over it.
No policy should escape from the ‘Where is the Treasury costing?’ question.
FFS, this was their big ‘election honesty’ policy implementation and at their first test, they are looking like failing it miserably.
[Breaking weeks of relative stability on the primary vote, the Coalition has increased 3% to 42% and Labor has increased 1% to 41%, to reduce the 2PP gap to 52-48%, the narrowest it has been since Julia Gillard replaced Kevin Rudd. The Greens have slumped to 10%, their lowest level of support since May.]
Essential from crikey
Bernard Keane tweets:
[Hmmm. VERY interesting Essential Report poll coming.]
It’s taken longer than usual in coming today.
As I’ve noted here before, Henry Hewson won McMillan in 1972 with 16.6% of the primary vote.
Maybe Swan, should say he’s just a Regular Joe?
They will submit their costings.
Uhlmann chasing a press secretary job in Abbotts office if he wins? I wonder.
I hope it’s not too interesting.
James J,
When exactly?
1% have been submitted to date.
David,
With Uhlmann’s wife, Gai Borottman being a member of the Government?
I don’t think so.
41% Primary, well even Fran must reckon they can win with that!
so that mean all the polls are about the same now the three
nellson news poll and essential
[Breaking weeks of relative stability on the primary vote, the Coalition has increased 3% to 42% and Labor has increased 1% to 41%, to reduce the 2PP gap to 52-48%]
If that is correct the 52-48 TPP is looking OK for a labor return of govt.
Definitely interesting. Not sure how much can be read into the result.
so is that primary vote good, if we can get the other polls us or do the average
william , William are u know starting to feel better.
Swan absolutely roasted Hockey today. Given that Swan has the charisma of a brick, that isn’t a very good reflection on Hockey’s abilities.
Hey — where are the numbers!?
If it’s 52/48 it’s not very interesting at all actually. It just confirms what we already know – Labor is narrowly ahead with 11.5 days to go.
is it compulsary to submitt your policies for costing.
no its not my say, but it is considered exceedingly poor form.
Bad Govt. Bad govt. Bad govt. Hockey obviously has nothing to say.
Sloppy had the believability of one of those spruikers outside liquidation stores.
[no its not my say, but it is considered exceedingly poor form]
And a complete free kick to the govt who can hammer, hammer, hammer
economy
economy
economy
The decision of sky news. It was even and line ball!! Surprise surprise!!
Sloppy gets a desultory golf clap at the end – says it all.
That was pathetic.
Gilbert scored it a draw. For heaven’s sake!!!
Idiot Gilbert reckons the debate was a draw. Thta means Swan won by a mile. 😆
Gilbert just made me kack myself laughing! Even, he said. The man is a stupid p&%$k
Psephos,
I reckon Keane is most interested in the Green vote coming back to normal levels in this poll.
If that holds, they’ll get 7% or so on the day.
keiren calls debate even