The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.
For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.
UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.
UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.
Great blog this. Was two pages behind, then suddenly four pages behind. Decided this is the place to be for run-up to election.
I think the bleak-leak period is behind us and the polls will start to rebound, so, chin up everyone. I think the current ‘election simulation’ on Crikey is pretty much how it will play out, with just a 3% swing in Qld, and the rest pretty stable. Libs realise if Julia wins, she’ll be in for two terms for sure.
One of the best pieces of info was the link to the Peter van Onselen article about the ‘faceless men’ of the coalition who allowed Tone to ‘slide’ into Liberal leadership. Must admit, that aligned with my take of the happenings at that time. One of them, Abetz, has a favourite idea of turning us into a U.S. style electoral system of non-compulsory voting. Our system alllows the nutters to offset each other, whereas over the there, it’s only the political nutters who vote, and look what’s happened.
Also, there’s all this talk of Labor disunity but even Kevin Rudd didn’t vote for himself in the leadership spill. Compare that to the Liberal bloodbath, where, as someone noted, Malcolm was first tortured (by Bernadi, mostly), then knifed.
See http://www.perthnow.com.au/opinion/van-onselen-working-the-dark-arts-of-politics/story-e6frg41u-1225902520571
[Yo Ho HO
Is that ALP 52, coalition 48?
YOu best not be shitting me?]
As I said, its from the Ghost. 52 is ALP, 48 is the Coalition. Primaries 39 (ALP), 42 (Coalition) and 13 (Green)
Ghostwhovotes
says 52-48 ALP
39 Pv ALP
42 Pv Coalition
is this confirmed?
39 primary doesn’t count!
NSW
Deceased mice in cream vat:
1. Hughes
2. Macquarie
3. Robertson
mice struggling to justify their ‘swim & survive’ certificates:
4.Lindsay (surely more than half the 26% that caned the ALP in the by-election will cane Federal Labor??)
5. Bennelong, because, well if there is a real swing then why not, hey??
Melbourne v Hawthorn will be an interesting match. The Dees are clearly on the up and while I think they may just miss the eight this year they look like being very competitive for the next three to four years.
Glen: I don’t believe the Liberals are that broke, or did they spend all the money on that dreadful “Direct Action” jingle? 😉
Glen: “George just because I vote for them doesnt mean I drink their kool aid day and night.”
Glen, re-read that comment over and over and over and it might dawn on you that what you write is comical at best, down right ignorant at worst.
So on your thinking, even though a political party can continually disgrace the concept of basic human decency with its shrill yelling and vilification of minorities to win office, you vote for them? Amazing…. just amazing.
Psephos @ 2984
[So I think 80 seats is a reasonable guess at present.]
Agreed – I said 80 seats a couple of days ago on this forum, and see no reason to alter that, Wrong Way Mackerras’ prediction also of 80 seats notwithstanding
That’s the sad thing about the Liberal party. They are just a big lie. I mean, they can’t even be honest about what they call themseleves. They’re not Liberals, they’re conservative. Even their pommie counterparts are open and honest about what they call themselves!