Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in Lindsay; 50-50 in Dawson

The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.

For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.

UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.

UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,110 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in Lindsay; 50-50 in Dawson”

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  6. Not a bad ad. Personally I’m not really a fan of attack ads. Sort of wishing society could move beyond them (I like to dream).

  8. [ think only Robertson, Macquarie, Solomon, Dawson and Flynn are in real danger.

    What about Hasluck and Leichhardt

    Dead dogs include:

    1. Leichhardt
    2. Herbert
    3. Wright (New seat.. everyone keeps forgetting this one! 🙂 )
    4. Flynn

    Canines in ICU:

    5: Dawson
    6: Longman (Gen Y voting for their own.. novelty with Wyatt Roy)
    7: Brisbane (my only big call I think)

    No net gain for ALP.]

    I think we will hold Hasluck and Leichhardt. Wright is an LNP seat so it makes no difference. I’ve conceded Dawson is at serious risk. I disagree about Longman, I think running a 19yo in a seat full of seniors is a very bad idea. No doubt he’s a smart boy, but I can tell you from personal experience that no-one likes a young smarty-pants. Brisbane is an inner city seat and won’t swing.

  10. Since the Libs are basically broke I wouldnt be surprised that they’ve got bugger all ads out till the last week.

    I wouldnt be surprised if they got negative too.

    Sad really that politics has to be so dirty ah well.

  11. Stats are starting to come out for Russian heat wave deaths. The official stats for Moscow for July are around 14,000 deaths in total which includes a year-on-year increase in morbidity(?) of around 30% thought to be the heat wave effect. However, when contacted, individual morgues, which are apparently not part of the program, have said, ‘Double that.’ That would be around 10,000 heat deaths, not counting drowings. And that’s just for Moscow.
    Muscovites are starting to flee the city because if the heat doesn’t kill you, the air quality might. Levels of 6 to 8 times above safe levels have been reported.
    Other impacts of the heat: thousands drowned, around 50 burned to death, around 2000 houses destroyed, automobile industry shut down because of the heat, fish in fish farms dead, roads melting, Russian grain exports halted and Moscow’s airport activity disrupted because of poor visibility.

    BUT. The really interesting thing is that the same blocking systems that are sending very hot desert heat north are also keeping vast swathes of Siberia fairly cool.

  13. Re the latest ALP advertisement: some swinging voters won’t know what “innumerate” means. But the Costello bit was very hard hitting, not just what he said, but also the little smirk, and the burst of laughter from the audience.

  14. [So Labor are going negative hmmm expected really.]

    Glen there is just so much negative stuff to that can be said about current and future opposition. 🙂

  15. Glen – In any job interview your references are important and it would appear that Tony’s work colleagues question his committment to economics.

    I should not have to remind you that Peter Costello was an outstanding Federal Treasurer

  17. [So Labor are going negative hmmm expected really.]

    What the F*&$ have the Libs been doing all along?

    Govt bad, govt, bad, govt waste, govt bad, Lemon ads, train wreck ads … these are positive non attack ads statements?

    All campaign ads end up negative — though Labor has had a few positive ones.

  21. [So Labor are going negative hmmm expected really.]
    Did you notice, Glen, that on comment was by a formal Liberal leader whom Abbott worked for and the other was from a long term Liberal treasurer? They were not taken out of context and have every indication of being their honestly held views and obviously lack partisan bias.

    Deadly stuff. And getting heavy repetition tonight so hard for anyone to miss.

  22. @Glen: “Sad really that politics has to be so dirty ah well.”

    And you call yourself a Liberal supporter? The party that brought you “the boat people are coming?” Come on mate, the Libs are all about bathing around in the dirt and muddy water. 😉

  24. Yes, I finally saw a good ad from Labor.

    Abbott is innumerate according to a Hewson and Cossie cracked up over Abbott’s economic credentials.

    Straight from within their own mob. If Latham was a risk, Abbott is certainly as bad if not much worse.

  25. Would there be a reason for a lack of donations.

    Maybe the Liberals should have built better relationships with its core base rather than seeking to narrow its base to the point of bascially be the senior citz club

  27. victoria

    heat+vodka+nice cooling dip=drowing. The stats are all over the place but the highest I have seen for Russia this calendar year is around 3,700+ drowings. A figure more often used is around 2,000. There is little doubt in my mind that the stats are dodgy brothers stuff.

  28. In the 1950s the Liberal Party had thousands of members in Kooyong, today just over 600 members.

    And who’s fault is that.

  29. The only “positive” Liberal ads are implicity negative (dont have any real vision or policy for that matter), and more insidiously prey on fear of boat people. They”re starting to sound pretty lame. Those people who really put boat people over issues like grocery prices and schools are already solidly in the Liberal column.

  30. The main difference between the Liberal and Labor negative ads are that the Liberal ads are full of lies and misinformation (situation normal), whilst the Labor ads either turn the Liberal’s words back at them or quote facts.

  42. Psephos, while you are there, I would like your tips on the number of seats that Labor can win on Aug 21.

    I think you were out by only 1 seat at the last election?

  43. George just because I vote for them doesnt mean I drink their kool aid day and night.

    Victoria – well if we beat Hawthorn I would say the roll on effect would be hopefully enough.

    It’s Time – it is a negative ad with cherry picked quotes. Now that is a negative ad purely because it is an attack on Abbott and not about Labor’s positive plan for the future.

    steve – well it is difficult for the Libs when they’ve been a basket case for 3 years and so not many donors I guess and also let’s not forget the ALP have the Unions to give them millions of bucks which the Tories dont get.

  50. [According to GHostwhovotes

    Newspoll 52-48 ALP]
    Interesting. What will be Shanna selective pearl of wisdom from this to justify a coalition victory?

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