The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.
For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.
UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.
UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.
Pseph,
If it’s not too much trouble, do you reckon Labor have a shot in Ryan with Michael Johnson running as an Indy?
[This climate change thing might be starting to get out of control. Might be time to start doing something about it.]
I’m sure Kevin Rudd said the other day that the Rabbott is the only leader of a major party in the western world that denies climate change.
GG
[Diogs,
Why not just admit you’re a flake.]
As rare as the truth is, its supply is always in excess of its demand.
Coaliton: QLD: 7 NSW: 6 WA: 1 NT: 1 VIC: 1 TAS: 0 SA: 0 ACT: 0
ALP: QLD: -7 NSW 2 WA: 0 NT -1 VIC: -2 TAS: 0 SA: 0 ACT: 0
Antony Green’s calculator includes notionals, due to redistributions, which inflates the ALP true seat status. Betting markets are showing stronger support for incumbents. Which is why the numbers here look wacky.
Of course, RU is just as likely to be right, I can’t count!!
Glen is disappearing very soon. Not sure if he’s into mock outrage or faux outrage or just talking his usual crap.
mexi for the same reason Julia was being a ‘girl’ and not committing herself to 3 election debates at the start of the campaign.
Strategy! (if you are a pro-Tory) or Gutless! (if you are pro-Labor).
Tony gains nothing from more debates and the more Gillard puts herself out there the more desperate she looks (if you are pro-Tory). Gillard has nothing to lose since her message isnt cutting through and so this gives her the opportunity to try and slam home her messages (if you are pro-Labor).
Meanwhile me hopes Mark Latham turns up on QANDA oh the hilarity 😀
If only the majority of Australians really knew how important this election is going to be?
In a couple of years the global economy will be back in full swing, we will enjoy the benefits of another mining boom and face a decade of great prosperity.
Instead of that prosperity being shared among all Australians (if the Liberals win) it will go to a priviledged few, like the likes of Murdoch.
We will be heading down the USA path. We will have the poor (much to Abbott’s delight), crap public hospitals etc. etc. and a backward education system so you never become intelligent enough to pose a threat to the power of the filthy rich.
Gus, i will come home if Diog apologises first
I spilt me coffee at suggestion Sturt could be won , much as I’d love to see that Downer lite voice go
I’m more confident of some of those notionals , so never douted Labor will win , ? was margin
and await hopeful Kev and Labor econamic Adds factors in Bowman and Leichhrdt and elsewhere where slippage recovered
leaks now stopped , dis-unity pretty killed and Tony Abbott NOW has to stand on his own credentials and character for next 2 weeks , and that is a plus although he has got rat cunning
In relation to the footage of Abbott saying “guided democracy” it was on the channel 9 news on Saturday night in Brisbane and he was sneakily leaning over behind when he thought the media couldn’t hear him. Hope somebody can get hold of this.
[Instead of that prosperity being shared among all Australians (if the Liberals win) it will go to a priviledged few, like the likes of Murdoch.
We will be heading down the USA path. We will have the poor (much to Abbott’s delight), crap public hospitals etc. etc. and a backward education system so you never become intelligent enough to pose a threat to the power of the filthy rich.]
Baloney.
Glen – I will explain why I am questioning Abbott’s manliness.
Nikki Savva said todfay that Tony could not handle Jullia is she did what she does on the Today Show, bascially flits and plays him.
Now Glen a real man is able to handle a women and it is clear from Nikki’s comment that he just cannot control himself when challanged by a women.
FYI Glen Jules happens to be a girl
todfay = today
Amigo Ronnie, i entrusted Jules with you while i am away.what happened?
Ron did you see Grog’s report on day 22 and the coalitions feeble costings efforts of the page are at the bottom.
There is a link on Possum’s page.
[Meanwhile me hopes Mark Latham turns up on QANDA oh the hilarity]
Actually Glen, more people seem to be offended on Julia’s behalf that Latham ‘monstered’ her and unjustly accused her of something she didn’t do. The fact that Gyngell apologised on behalf of nine added to that feeling of being offended.
Latham may be a positive for Labor, believe it or not. The Australian sense of ‘fair play’ was assaulted by Latham yesterday, and even small l liberals thought he was out of line.
[Id still love to see a variety of positive ads for the ALP though.. emphasising their achievments and the NBN.]
I suspect that we will see these after the campaign launch next week.
Jen I would think even a kool-aid drinking Laborite supporter (not your good self just a general persona) would admit Gillard is losing at this stage in the game. But I stress the game aint over.
Labor 9.15.69
Coalition 12.16.88
HALF TIME
Re Ryan – it’s a possibility, but probably not a great one. If we hold all our Brisbane seats including Longman I’ll be happy. I don’t think the Libs can win without winning something in Brisbane.
[Baloney]
Pera
You can have my share if it helps,I just want to have the fibs condemned to a generation in opposition
Listeing to Jules today she was not at all happy about what happened yesterday with Latham.
To the idiot you mentioned this earlier, sorry I know this is a politics blog, but I can’t let this slide:
Mick Wilkinson:
“One of the main ways they kill babies is to inject it with KCl (Potassium Chloride). I am a chemist and know exactly what lethal doses do. That baby has a fully functioning nervous system and will writhe in pain until dead as the overdose of Potassium Ions sends the CNS into overdrive to stop the heart.”
Please, discuss any position regarding politics, but please don’t spread bullshit with your anti-abortion stance. Take that elsewhere. I don’t know if you are a chemist or not, but you have zero understanding of the medical procedures involved in induction abortions.
[FYI Glen Jules happens to be a girl]
I know mexi I waz juz bein silly with ya.
Lady Fatima:
Latham has proved before he can lose an election with one handshake – the Sydney tabloids today explicitly compared his scene with Gillard with the 2004 handshake moment.
[If it’s not too much trouble, do you reckon Labor have a shot in Ryan with Michael Johnson running as an Indy?]
No chance. Any Johnson supporters will be natural Liberals who will 2nd preference Liberal. And Johnson won’t have much of a vote to start with.
Glen: “… would admit Gillard is losing at this stage in the game …”
Based on what, tea leaf readings?
Pseph @3019
Cheers, mate
Glen – Both sides have had atleast one good week and one poor week.
The Liberals had a poor first week but hacve improved in week two and three
The ALP won week one, lost week two and in my view were winning week three up until the last 48 hours
Bascially the Government is ahead thanks to the economy.
I don’t know what it is, but I sense that the ALP have gained the upper hand today in regards to the campaign momentum.
Glen – Same here 🙂
Pspeh
maybe we are seeing ch 9 running interference
the dynamics have changed somewhat
the last week will see who is who
very droll mexi 😀
[would admit Gillard is losing at this stage in the game. ]
A matter of opinion Glen — but she is beginning to cut through to the media re true scrutiny of the policies. Once that starts properly — and Julia is getting herself plenty of airplay now — the spotlight will be shone on the shallowness of the opposition policies. And the absolute untruth of the economic tale they are trying so desperately to spin.
It’s the vibe
[I think only Robertson, Macquarie, Solomon, Dawson and Flynn are in real danger.
What about Hasluck and Leichhardt]
Dead dogs include:
1. Leichhardt
2. Herbert
3. Wright (New seat.. everyone keeps forgetting this one! :))
4. Flynn
Canines in ICU:
5: Dawson
6: Longman (Gen Y voting for their own.. novelty with Wyatt Roy)
7: Brisbane (my only big call I think)
No net gain for ALP.
spur212,
Well a campaign launch utterly devoid of anything ‘real’ when you’re campaign slogan is ‘Stand Up for Real Action” probably has something to do with it.
Abbott flubbed it, sure the delivery was ok, but there was stuff all in the message.
I doubt that they can keep the lid on for the next two weeks, the dam has to break sooner or later.
Glen, i really dont think Julia G is losing. Media tone is starting to change and a friendly media is essentially Tony’s only asset.
[If we hold all our Brisbane seats including Longman I’ll be happy.]
The gray gen voters of Bribie Is will be horrified when they see a poster of baby-face Roy boy on their way into the polling booth and avoid him in droves.
Well that and Mark Latham and Kevin Rudd.
So when are the next polls out?
[Gus, i will come home if Diog apologises first]
Finns
he dont have that word in his dictionary
Julia should have done the three point women’s defence on Latham.
1. Elbow to the guts,
2. Stomp on his foot
3. Kick to the groin with menace.
The cheers would have been overwhelming.
Is there a online video of this super ALP attack ad?
Current ALP Ad which William refferd to earlier:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeNih2aRZes
@Greensborough Growler LOL 😀
It’s by no means unprecedented for foreign dignitaries to find themselves teetering on the edge of Australian election campaigns – the Queen in 1954 and 1963, Lyndon Johnson in 1966, and George W. Bush in 2007 – but the fact that this time it’s the President and Foreign Minister of Nauru surely adds one more surreal element to this campaign.
Perahelion,
No, not baloney at all. What do you think Howard did with all his budget surpluses?
Oh that’s right, he provided extra billions in funding for health, education, pensions and carers, made investments in infrastructure after 20 warnings from the reserve bank
and made heaps of savings from political advertising especially from workchoices!
The top end got it all from tax cuts from your mob, Bonzo!
[3. Kick to the groin with menace.]
It’s funny, GG, that very thought crossed my mind at the time.
[I don’t know what it is, but I sense that the ALP have gained the upper hand today in regards to the campaign momentum.]
Like Kiwi in the Melbourne cup –Labor will barnstorm down the outside and daylight will run second!!!
STUFRA
rejigged
UFARTS
STARFU
FURATS
RATSFU
FURATS
[Julia should have done the three point women’s defence on Latham.
1. Elbow to the guts,
2. Stomp on his foot
3. Kick to the groin with menace.
The cheers would have been overwhelming.]
With the First Dude giving him a kick in the nuts to top things off.