Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in Lindsay; 50-50 in Dawson

The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.

For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.

UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.

UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,110 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in Lindsay; 50-50 in Dawson”

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  1. [I actually rang them and spoke to a person]

    It isn’t difficult to do this, and I think it would be good if more concerned members of the audience did so.

    The ABC’s national switchboard number is

    [13 9994]

    You can ask to be connected to the relevant department, eg:

    . Radio National – including the specific program (eg Breakfast)

    . The Newsroom in your state (I believe they handle radio + television news)

    . NewsRadio

  2. Just dropped in to leave a “crackpot-with-no-friends-trying-to-get-a-rise-from-anonymous-folks-on-a-blog” alert. How ya goin this evening Mick old son? 🙂

  3. A majority is 76 seats. Labor currently has 88, but that’s a notional figure. We actually only won 83 in 2007, and we’ve lost Lowe to the redistribution. We have six notional new seats, of which only Greenway is reasonably safe. We could well lose the other five (Herbert, Gilmore, Dickson, Macarthur and Swan), which would put us back to the 83 we won in 2007. Other than that, I think only Robertson, Macquarie, Solomon, Dawson and Flynn are in real danger. If we lose them we’ll have 78. But I’m fairly confident of winning McEwen, and I think Hughes, La Trobe, Sturt and Boothby are winnable. So I think 80 seats is a reasonable guess at present.

  4. OMG, Did Abbott use “Guided Democracy”!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That was from Bung Karno, President Sukarno of Indonesia, he coined that term in 1958. WTF is going on here.

  5. the big ship @ 2894,

    as a matter of i fact i happen to be a telephone market research interviewer.

    as you’re aware, each age group has a quote and once it’s filled, there is no point hanging around speaking to a person who is outside the demographic which you are looking for. that is what i’m referring to. furthermore, due to experience, an interviewer may gauge from the respondent’s voice as to what age group that person may belong to.

    furthermore, as the demographic quota that is most difficult to fill is the 18-30 cohort, in particular, males, and given the very limited time period for the survey, 1-2 days at most, the prospect of filling the aforementioned demographic quota is somewhat slim.

    there is a vast distinction between the theory and the practice involved in market research…

  6. I do think the Costello/Hewson advertisements are cutting to Abbott. I’m sure Costello, though not Hewson, will regret making the comments.

    Overall, I think the perception (and possibly the reality) is that the Coalition look after money better.

    It is not true that interest rates have been substantially lower under Coalition Governments (they are, on average, almost dead level according to a Megalogenis piece in 2007), though they have been lower for most of this term, so the ALP is probably in front here. How much influence a government has over the prevailing rate is controversial.

    The coalition leads strongly on managing debt, whether rising or reducing.

    Whilst the Coalition has a ‘razor gang’ label, actually, under Howard, Federal payroll, staff and staff per capita all rose.

    The ALP is known better for waste, overspending, not meeting obligations/promises due to overspending (LAW tax cuts the most public example).

    Overall, the economy is a hard card to play but perception normally favours the coalition on this one.. the right bower to the left, as it were.

  7. [So I think 80 seats is a reasonable guess at present.]

    I think it might be a couple more to us, but I’d be happy with 80.

  8. [No Glen. Abbott is a chicken and scared of a girl.]
    And she should use every opportunity on QandA to make that very point.

  9. [OMG, Did Abbott use “Guided Democracy”!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That was from Bung Karno, President Sukarno of Indonesia, he coined that term in 1958. WTF is going on here.]

    Yup — even listed him on Wikipedia

  10. [He comes from good Ballarat Irish Catholic DLP stock, he opposed WorkChoices, he’s a republican, and he went to school with Paul Bongiorno. He takes the official conservative church line on sexual matters, but on economic and social policy he follows Rerum Novarum, which Labor policy embodies.]
    He criticises belief in global warming as a form of idolatory and one has to wonder about his view of a woman having dominion over men in the running of the country given his church’s position of women in positions of authority.

  11. Psehpos @ 2954,

    Thanks for that summary. Makes me feel a bit better. Would be very nice to see Dutton lose though. Have you heard anything regarding Forde?

  12. I’m so glad Julia doesn’t have a beard.

    I don’t trust people with beards.

    I mean, what, apart from old soup, are they hiding?

  13. “he’s innumerate” J. Hewson

    LOL!! That ad is GOLD. Plus the Smirk gets laughs when asked about Tones’ cred.

    Best ad yet. Run that one till poll day folks.

  14. [And she should use every opportunity on QandA to make that very point.]

    BK mind you Gillard is only going on QANDA because she is losing.
    If she were 60-40PPV ahead I doubt she’d be risking going on QANDA.

    Wonder if GP’s hooting will be audible??

  15. Roy O

    [Then you just keep concern-trolling every single thing Labor says or does.]

    Oh, it’s the old George W Bush “You are either with us or against us” argument to try and minimise any dissent. I love that argument. The ostriches used that argument every time Rudd stuffed up and we saw how that worked out didn’t we.

  16. [I think only Robertson, Macquarie, Solomon, Dawson and Flynn are in real danger.]

    What about Hasluck and Leichhardt?

  17. [Did I hear right of a Newspoll tonight?

    If so where? Here? The Australian at 10.15?]

    If so, it will be announced here first by PB’s Deep Throat – the ghostwhovotes.

  18. Town Hall?? Glen, Some references further up the thread and has been announced on ABC24. Apparently its not a debate. Julia and Tones get an hour each to face an audience picked by Galaxy research and kept in check by Speers. They wont be up together though.

    Tony too gutless. On Wednesday in and unfortunatley named place clalled Rooty Hill (RSL). Hmmmm, do you think we will see a headline like:

    “Abbotts campaign rooted at the hill”

  19. Now this may have already have been mentioned but I think it was the highlight of the day

    Former Federal Treasurer Peter Costello’s Advisor Nikki revealled today that Tony would not have another debate because he could not handle Jules playing him.

    We now know that Tony is clealy not a man for a man is never scared of a girl.

    Gee and I thought the Liberals were going to release the budget cuts before the election, therefore why are they going to wait until they are elected to form a committee to examine and Idenify potential budget cuts.

    And finally, I agree with Willam, that ad on Abbott related economic quotes from Hewson and Costello is the best ad of the campaign.

    Looking forward to seeing Jules on Q&A tomorrow.

  20. [I mean, what, apart from old soup, are they hiding?]

    Some women find beards sexy — makes a man look professorial.

  21. Glen@2973

    And she should use every opportunity on QandA to make that very point.

    BK mind you Gillard is only going on QANDA because she is losing.
    If she were 60-40PPV ahead I doubt she’d be risking going on QANDA.

    Wonder if GP’s hooting will be audible??

    You can the Liberal Party out of Glen, but you can NEVER take Glen out of the Liberal Party.

    And spare me the faux sympathy for Rudd like Tony did.

    You KNOW the Gillard/Rudd Tag Team will KILL the Libs.

  22. This climate change thing might be starting to get out of control. Might be time to start doing something about it.

    “CLIMATE change has been blamed for floods that have killed thousands and left millions homeless from Pakistan to North Korea, fires and a heatwave in Russia that have left 5000 dead and disrupted global food markets, and a severe tropical storm threatening Bermuda.

    In Greenland, a giant ice island four times the size of Manhattan – about 225 square kilometres – has broken off the Petermann Glacier. It is the largest chunk of ice to calve in the Arctic since 1962.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-whips-up-floods-fire-and-ice-20100807-11pb9.html

  23. As far as abortion is concerned I think the Western Australian law is the best, with abortion on request allowed up to 20 weeks and only thereafter if the baby is going to be born with any severe problems. I also agree that in the case of a minor who lives at home a parent should be informed.

    But I don’t like the idea of abortion per se, I find it uncomfortable to think about the process and effects to say the least, it is just that I think the rights and wishes of the female are more important than a fetus, and up to 20 weeks no one elses business.

  24. [LOL!! That ad is GOLD. Plus the Smirk gets laughs when asked about Tones’ cred.

    Best ad yet. Run that one till poll day folks.]

    Julia did say they’d be using the opposition’s own words.

    Now we just have to see what 8 million worth of union ad are like — starting tomorrow.

    I don’t think the big tobacco ads have any way of getting traction … I mean even if you’re addicted, you know it ain’t good for you.

  25. Glen – Why is the Liberal leader scared of Jules.

    Answer: He cannot handle her when she plays with him.

    Just pathetic.

  26. I still think the Tories would have gone with someone a bit younger if they were serious about winning Leichardt. Entsch had his chance and failed. Cairns basically struggled from the time do nothing Entsch got elected. The whole place needs some serious money spent and I don’t think Entsch will be a part of that process.

  27. [He criticises belief in global warming as a form of idolatry and one has to wonder about his view of a woman having dominion over men in the running of the country given his church’s position of women in positions of authority.]

    One does, but I don’t think he’s as reactionary as all that. On basic social and economic issues, he knows Labor is right.

  28. [You can the Liberal Party out of Glen, but you can NEVER take Glen out of the Liberal Party.

    And spare me the faux sympathy for Rudd like Tony did.

    You KNOW the Gillard/Rudd Tag Team will KILL the Libs.]

    Frank this is the last time I will respond to you.
    I am sick of coping crap from you everytime I make a post on PB.
    You dont have the right to tell me whether I am or am not sincere. I say what I mean and if you cant hack it so be it.

    I’m sorry you feel the need to abuse people who dont think the same way you do.

  29. [This climate change thing might be starting to get out of control. Might be time to start doing something about it.]

    What for? Global warming is crap.

  30. [Cairns basically struggled from the time do nothing Entsch got elected. The whole place needs some serious money spent and I don’t think Entsch will be a part of that process.]
    Entsch is nothing more than an electoral artefact.

  31. [BK mind you Gillard is only going on QANDA because she is losing.]

    C’mon Glen — you’re just saying that t get a rise out of people. I am sure she would have done it anyway — it worked well for Rudd last time around, and Julia’s best asset is that she is good off the cuff. Comes from knowing what yo’re talking about (unlike her adversary — who loses it in anything that is spontaneous.

  32. Oooo.. the new attack ads are here.. and customised for Paterson too

    Id still love to see a variety of positive ads for the ALP though.. emphasising their achievments and the NBN.

    Cant say teh ‘ALP are winning with ad numbers.. seems 50/50 now.. better than last week.

  33. Glen@2992

    You can the Liberal Party out of Glen, but you can NEVER take Glen out of the Liberal Party.

    And spare me the faux sympathy for Rudd like Tony did.

    You KNOW the Gillard/Rudd Tag Team will KILL the Libs.

    Frank this is the last time I will respond to you.
    I am sick of coping crap from you everytime I make a post on PB.
    You dont have the right to tell me whether I am or am not sincere. I say what I mean and if you cant hack it so be it.

    I’m sorry you feel the need to abuse people who dont think the same way you do.

    You are a Big Girl’s Bliouse – Just like Tony Abbott.

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