Westpoll: 52-48 to Coalition in WA

In addition to the two polls discussed in the previous post (more on those as details come to hand), we now have a Westpoll survey from the normal regrettably small sample of 400 Western Australian respondents. This has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 52-48, compared with 53.3-46.7 per cent in 2007. The Coalition primary vote is 48 per cent (47.4 per cent in 2007) to Labor’s 35 per cent (36.8 per cent) and 14 per cent for the Greens (8.9 per cent). Further questions suggest Tony Abbott’s Catholicism is slightly more damaging electorally than Julia Gillard’s atheism, and there is a 54-33 split in favour of Kevin Rudd returning to cabinet, a relatively narrow result reflecting his unpopularity in Western Australia. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full set of Westpoll results here. The Coalition has a 15-point lead on the economy and a 28-point lead on asylum seekers, while Labor has leads of eight to 13 points on health, industrial relations, education and environment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

217 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to Coalition in WA”

Comments Page 5 of 5
1 … 4 5

  1. Thanks polymorphs,

    Canning is a big ask with Randal holding it on 4.3% i think, but Alannah McTiernan is a pretty good candidate, and at least some of the issues in the last couple of elections have been due to confusion and crap going on with the ALP candidates for that seat.

    Will see on the day. Good luck where you are mate.

  3. While we all live in this, hope it will happen world, reality tonight says Julia will not win as a presentable PM. The trend has been regretfully showing that. As a parliamentary performer she is great, away from her comfort zone, no way.She cannot win this election.
    I am like all of you, bar a few Liberals here, wanting a return to Govt. Frankly we are pissing in the wind. Everything says Abbott has the momentum. BUT now Kevin Rudd is the only ace up the sleeve, if labor is to crawl back to power.
    Here is the point to ponder….if Kevin Rudd turns Queensland back to Labor, and that is what is needed to retain Government…Gillard cannot do it….then my thought is, she stands down as PM and calls a party ballot…Rudd is returned as PM
    Laugh yourselves silly, but instead of being hard line labor supporters, you all know in your heart of hearts Julia is not the goods, she is not measuring up…and the way this pathetic campaign has been run, is embarrassing…I asked many many comments back, where is Hawker the so called brains of the Labor executive who brained this campaign…from being the darling of Sky News he has gone missing…what stands between Abbott and a return to Howard politics in this country is Kevin Rudd…if you die hard labor supporters cannot see that then, you are as they say…blind freddy.

    Julia is stuffed she has not got it, with some luck Kevin Rudd can get them across the line and then her position is as PM is untenable…any one still think Kevin Rudd is gone and forgotten?????????????????…..there are a few of the faceless men who will be shitting in their pants.

  4. Well I have to be up for a lovely handout in a few hours so I am off to bed and back to lurking in the shadows around here.

  5. [I am now expecting Labor’s figures to get a little worse than 49/51 by election day. It then depends on how much if any incumbency benefit she gets.]

    Gee, TP, and the other day you were arguing that she would not have any incumbency benefit… what a weathervane.

  6. @ David 203

    I was thinking exactly the same and actually had another lefty mention this same scenario to me about 4 hours ago.

    cheers

  8. [Julia is stuffed she has not got it, with some luck Kevin Rudd can get them across the line and then her position is as PM is untenable…any one still think Kevin Rudd is gone and forgotten?????????????????…..there are a few of the faceless men who will be shitting in their pants.]

    David, you are stealing all of TP’s lines…please be a little more sensitive.

  9. Paul_J@206

    @ David 203

    I was thinking exactly the same and actually had another lefty mention this same scenario to me about 4 hours ago.

    cheers

    Well you are BOTH wrong – the full effect of Rudd coming back hasn’t sunk in – Sunday is D-Day – and the Libs main message of the Campaign Launch will be reduced to a footnote in the bulletins as the Kev & Julia Show is the talk of the town.

    I’m still confident – I expect a few others do so as well.

  10. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/new-marginal-poll-shows-labor-was-on-rebound-even-before-rudds-return/story-fn59niix-1225902314368

    The Newspoll survey, taken between Tuesday and Thursday evenings in Lindsay and Dawson, shows the Coalition ahead on primary votes at 45 per cent to Labor’s 41 in Lindsay, and 44 per cent to the ALP’s 42 in Dawson. On a two-party-preferred basis, after distributing preferences based on the 2007 election, the Coalition was ahead 51 per cent to 49 per cent in Lindsay and the parties were dead even in Dawson.

  11. Most of the electorate are OK with Howard.

    Most? I seriously doubt that after his last term.

    I also doubt his appearance on the campaign trail will make much difference either way. His endorsement of Abbott is completely unsurprising, and is primarily an appeal to the party base to get motivated and cough up more advertising funds. The only real question was exactly when he would put in an appearance. And that has been answered.

  12. OT, but heres a scary article. Particularly this bit:

    [Moscow’s tabloid press has speculated the United States orchestrated the heatwave in order to favour its own grain exporters by blasting Russia with harmful rays from a research station in Alaska.]

    Tinfoil hat brigade in the Moscow Tabloid press??

  13. Not sure of the validity of this, but a work colleague whose mother works for a GP has advised that a Sri Lankan… organisation of some kind has sent a mass mail-out to Sri Lankans in Australia advising to vote against Labor because they (apparently) support the Tamils.

    The Sri Lankan GP phoned a Sri Lankan pal who confirmed they received the exact same letter.

  15. It would be orbiting gold reflectors, like in James Bond. Gold leaf can be made pretty thin and reflects IR.

    This technology like others can be extremely good or extremely bad.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 5 of 5
1 … 4 5