Westpoll: 52-48 to Coalition in WA

In addition to the two polls discussed in the previous post (more on those as details come to hand), we now have a Westpoll survey from the normal regrettably small sample of 400 Western Australian respondents. This has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 52-48, compared with 53.3-46.7 per cent in 2007. The Coalition primary vote is 48 per cent (47.4 per cent in 2007) to Labor’s 35 per cent (36.8 per cent) and 14 per cent for the Greens (8.9 per cent). Further questions suggest Tony Abbott’s Catholicism is slightly more damaging electorally than Julia Gillard’s atheism, and there is a 54-33 split in favour of Kevin Rudd returning to cabinet, a relatively narrow result reflecting his unpopularity in Western Australia. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full set of Westpoll results here. The Coalition has a 15-point lead on the economy and a 28-point lead on asylum seekers, while Labor has leads of eight to 13 points on health, industrial relations, education and environment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

217 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to Coalition in WA”

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  9. This isn’t bad news. If WA is 52-48 on election day, that means a statewise swing of 1.3 to the ALP and a decent chance of picking up Stirling.

    Nice to also see, on the religion question, Tone’s views hurt more than Julia’s.

    Either way, it is a small sample and can’t be taken too seriously.

  14. o you mean we dont know yet but we think the pv improved
    so we dont know william hasnt see the run down yet
    so tired i cannot type so wait for that answer and off

    our school is having a big auction tomorrow night so oh is busy cataloging stuff

    one day he may stop doing stuff that he s not paid for never i suppose

    so we are both cranky so better make him some milo

  15. [So Labor’s TPP vote has IMPROVED in WA from 2007 ]

    william is this good what does this mean does it mean we hold what we have only if so thats even a blessing

  17. [This isn’t bad news. If WA is 52-48 on election day, that means a statewise swing of 1.3 to the ALP ]

    so this it is up from 2007 for us to hold our seats then, i suppose the kevin factor doesnt come in over there then

  19. My Say, given the skimpy sample of 400, I’d hesitate to say that it means anything. It is however consistent with what I’m hearing from Labor sources: they’re back where they were in 2007, with the outcome in Hasluck and Swan anyone’s guess. Maybe throw in Canning and Stirling as roughie gains for Labor, though it’s a long time since I’ve heard anyone discuss the latter seriously.

  20. This is weird though. I was under the understanding from a few WAers (anecdotal as it may be) that the local electorates are saturated by Liberal candidate v ALP campaigning.

  21. [54-33 split in favour of Kevin Rudd returning to cabinet, a relatively narrow result reflecting his unpopularity ]

    this sentance william seems to have mixed messages

  23. [that the local electorates are saturated by Liberal candidate v ALP campaigning.]

    to clarify, I mean the Liberals are all over the place and Labor quiet.

  25. [It’s behaving as Queensland did 20 years ago. What next, Tuckey for PM?]

    Not sure what you mean by that, Luckydave. Twenty years ago, Queensland saved Labor’s bacon at the 1990 election.

  27. my say

    Your comment from the previous thread about the Tardis – now that would be an idea and a half. 🙂

    Seriously though, the next time I ever get down to Tassie (whenever that might be!), it would be nice to meet up for coffee as it often fascinates me who might be on this board. I do have one relative, it appears, from little comments made that only he would know!

    Sorry William for turning this into a social gathering blog!

  30. [this sentance william seems to have mixed messages]

    Yes, it might if you’re not on my wavelength. What I mean is that if you asked that question nationally there would be a very large majority in favour of Rudd’s return.

  31. thank you all so back to staus qou sounds good in wa for every where then
    do you all think as this state after the mining thing was a real worry so seems like the w.a s have settled back to where they were

  32. Guys 400 is a crap sample but it is good news. Under these figures, we would keep hasluck and pick up one more.

    To put into perspective Oakes ridiculous report on the galaxy poll, 51% of 800 = 408 to the coalition, meaning 392 to the ALP. If they polled 200 people in each seat and labor are behind in every seat, then no ALP candidate polled more than 100 votes. That means that a higher margin in one seat can’t counter a lower margin elsewhere. So how the hell can he sustain an argument that the ALP are badly behind in all seats? Am I missing something here?

  33. [and there is a 54-33 split in favour of Kevin Rudd returning to cabinet, a relatively narrow result reflecting his unpopularity in Western Australia.]

    William, as a Sydneysider, given the way that Rudd was described as being on the nose in WA, it appears to me that a 54-33 split appears relatively positive. Did you expect that the split would be greater?

  34. [So wiliam in other words we have come back from the mining disaster time of a couple of months ago]

    Yes, that’s exactly what’s happened. Few tears have been shed for Kevin Rudd in WA.

  36. Thank you yes dr have a way of talking so we dont understand them
    and so do professors thank you and i am not being sarcstic or anything

    just letting you know i value your knowledge

  38. I hope I’ve cleared that up now, Scarpat. If a national poll on that question came in at 54-33, I’d be very surprised to see it as narrow as that. In WA, it sounds about right.

  40. [ghost who votes tweeted it

    i had heard it might be

    51*49 o no not another poll to night well i wait till tomorrow but quick yes or no

    and i do no you never ever put us on the bottom side so that looks good to me. nite

  41. [I hope I’ve cleared that up now, Scarpat. If a national poll on that question came in at 54-33, I’d be very surprised to see it as narrow as that. In WA, it sounds about right.]

    Thanks William. Our posts crossed.

  42. Very interesting. You know, forgive me for stating the probably obvious, but I think this election is going to hinge purely on NSW. With losses in QLD offset by gains in Vic/SA…

  45. my say

    stop stressing

    we will get over the line

    MSM or no MSM

    they are afterall only 0.00000000000000004% of the population

    and they aint able to hold a one on one

    😉

  46. do people like oakes just say anything or has he some knowledge or he just thinks

    that how would u know what the other seats are if you dont know

  47. Pebbles – it’ll hinge on QLD and NSW equally.

    I think Labor will pick up 5 or 6 seats nationally. It’s just obviously a matter of how many they lose in QLD and NSW.

  48. William, I am referring to the share of electorates. That is, there are so many WA seats that are Liberal held and so few Labor seats in WA that unless something dramatic happens the status quo is likely.

    Sure Labor won’t want to lose WA seats and to pick up one or two would be welcome, but in reality the stateof WA is not in play. Very reminiscent of QLD right up until 2007. Back in the 90s QLD over delivered to the Tories and was so arrogant that it through Joh could be PM.

    WA seems to be exhibiting that same parochialism and frankly, crazy pro-conservative bias that the QLD Nats exemplified 20 years ago.

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