In addition to the two polls discussed in the previous post (more on those as details come to hand), we now have a Westpoll survey from the normal regrettably small sample of 400 Western Australian respondents. This has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 52-48, compared with 53.3-46.7 per cent in 2007. The Coalition primary vote is 48 per cent (47.4 per cent in 2007) to Labor’s 35 per cent (36.8 per cent) and 14 per cent for the Greens (8.9 per cent). Further questions suggest Tony Abbott’s Catholicism is slightly more damaging electorally than Julia Gillard’s atheism, and there is a 54-33 split in favour of Kevin Rudd returning to cabinet, a relatively narrow result reflecting his unpopularity in Western Australia. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full set of Westpoll results here. The Coalition has a 15-point lead on the economy and a 28-point lead on asylum seekers, while Labor has leads of eight to 13 points on health, industrial relations, education and environment.
glory
ahem
i wasnt impugning ghost at all
just saying I am waiting for the figures
and even the gods are wrong sometimes
Greg Hunt isn’t a bad bloke really. You can see him struggling with himself. He just said the $1 billion said to have been wasted in BER could have been used to address indigenous blindness. How many Libs would use that example?
my say
[how would u know what the other seats are if you dont know]
That is very profound question. Credit to you for asking.
william talk in my language please gwv 49- 41 what
William, I know that Joh for PM was 1987 – so read 23 years if you prefer.
[Ghost Who Votes’ tweet was ALP 49-51 Coalition. And he’s always right.]
Can it be assumed that the family name of Ghost Who Votes’ alter ego is Walker?
it sound like that what was his name in the us with nasty little pair of glasses
[Pebbles – it’ll hinge on QLD and NSW equally.
I think Labor will pick up 5 or 6 seats nationally. It’s just obviously a matter of how many they lose in QLD and NSW.]
I think QLD’s importance may be overstated. I fear we may lose a couple just as a normal adjustment because their favourite son is no longer at the top. (Remember QLD is normally a bit more Coalition friendly) However, if we can play this right, those losses can be offset by gains made in Vic/SA.
are we talking about the same poll before i ring all your necks i going
is this the same poll
This is the first unchanged PPM in months. Things starting to really settle down in the polls. The Coalition are as good as they are going to get, IMO. It’s a matter of whether Labor’s primary stays under 40 or goes over. These 12-13% Green Primaries are the ones to watch, because they won’t poll that high on the day.
Greg hunt for opposition leader???
[Greg Hunt isn’t a bad bloke really. You can see him struggling with himself. He just said the $1 billion said to have been wasted in BER could have been used to address indigenous blindness. How many Libs would use that example?]
I thought that Pyne said that the amount wasted was $8 billion. It seems that everybody on the Coalition’s side has problem with zeroes.
To Speak of Pebbles
You are dead right. The election will be decided in NSW. If we lose say, 5 in Qld and 1 in NT and 1 in WA or Tas, and win back two in Vic, we cannot afford to lose more than 7 in NSW. I don’t get the impression from the polls that we are doing well enough to win seats in NSW at the moment, but that may improve. The election will be won or lost in Western Sydney and the Hunter (Dobell and Robertson) and Norther NSW (Page). I reckon we can keep the damage to 5, but it will be tough.
william
so it is ppm
not 2pp
agreen voter today told me that the preference deal is done and dusted i wasnt sure is that correct
TSoP : QLD Labor pickups are possible in Herbert, Dickson, Bowman and Ryan. I suspect that QLD can hold its own in net seat terms if the next two weeks go well.
William or other Westerners: how do the Libs only manage 52% on a 48% primary vote?
It seems to imply Labor receiving 80% of Green preferences + almost 75% of the (rather small, for a poll) ‘Other’ vote of barely 3%.
just pretend that we where in co with the greens it would look good then
[I think QLD’s importance may be overstated. I fear we may lose a couple just as a normal adjustment because their favourite son is no longer at the top. (Remember QLD is normally a bit more Coalition friendly) However, if we can play this right, those losses can be offset by gains made in Vic/SA.]
You may be very right Peb – who knows!
I’ve got Labor losing 5 or 6 in QLD… After that Sturt poll today, its now looking a bit ou of reach. Boothby is a chance, but won’t be counting on SA gains 🙁
Greg Hunt? Give me a break…….
Speaking of saturation of Libs v Lab. in WA. In my electorate of Fremantle I have received a flier from lib candidate. Nothing from Melissa Parke. I was in Fremantle today and there were a lot of Liberal signs…or should I say “Matt Taylor” signs with a barely visible “Liberal Party” in the top right corner…or should I say “far right” top corner. Waste of cardboard of course. I haven’t seen an ALP sign.
my say
The Nielsen poll hasn’t been published yet. It will appear in tomorrow’s papers. It is thought that it will show a 2PP to the LNP 51-49 🙁
It can only get better for Labor from here – in fact this is an improvement.
[63 In the Know
Posted ]
all u p f r o m h e r e
nite all
Anyone got any grassroots news on Vic marginals McEwen and La Trobe….could be vital in winning this election?
Thanks tom i love you all
hope your still not crabby with me re the long post
Well … Greg Hunt just made a goose of himself in my eyes … parroting all the ‘soundbite lines’.
Something really gets me about all these interviews and mini debates.
The Coalition people just parrot the lines.
The ALP guys might parrot some lines too — but they also present reasoned, sensible argument. I just don’t get why the reasoned, sensible argument is ignored by the MSM. Is it because they actually don’t listen to what is said as they read their lists of questions in front of them?
I see this happening on SKY a lot — they have longshots where the interviewer and interviewee are both seen, and as the interviewee is answering, Gilbert especially, but alos that dill Gilbert, are reading their notes and not listening at all.
Beaglie
No inside info, but both will be absolutely line ball on the night I think.
[I do have one relative, it appears, from little comments made that only he would know! ]
Hi Allan, the three monsters and work and other stuff keep me busy, from what I see on this board we get quite a wide cross section though at times different people seem to be driven off or put off by the views they express. But most who post here are decent people only expressing their own views, dreams and fears.
That dill — was Speers.
[Greg Hunt? Give me a break……]
well some one said he was nice young man better than his present boss
so i just thought we should let him have ago.
Graeme, split the “other” vote 50-50 and Labor gets to 47.7 – round it and you get to 48.
I think the ALP need to find 9 more out of the following: Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Dobell, Forde, Dawson, Page, Flynn, Longman, Bennelong, Bass Hasluck, Dickson, Mcarthur, Gilmore, Swan, Macquarie, Soloman, Robertson and Hebert and the LIB held marginals of Sturt, Bonython, McEwen, La Trobe, Bowman, Hughes and Paterson.
[Thanks tom i love you all
hope your still not crabby with me re the long post]
my say
I sometimes get a little stressed with life generally plus the campaign. I love your contributions here which lift my spirits when they need lifting. Stay true.
[I think the ALP need to find 9 more out of the following: Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Dobell, Forde, Dawson, Page, Flynn, Longman, Bennelong, Bass Hasluck, Dickson, Mcarthur, Gilmore, Swan, Macquarie, Soloman, Robertson and Hebert and the LIB held marginals of Sturt, Bonython, McEwen, La Trobe, Bowman, Hughes and Paterson.]
Ya think!
[After that Sturt poll today, its now looking a bit ou of reach. Boothby is a chance, but won’t be counting on SA gains]
It upset me but I am still gonna try my hardest to flip those seats. Much to the annoyance of my fellow citizens in the People’s Republic of Adelaide, I am going to count SA and Vic as the same state for this exercise. I feel so dirty saying it.
The thing about QLD is, as soon as Rudd was dumped, I knew we’d take a hit in QLD. Not because of the “knifing” itself but because there is no parochialism anymore. QLD is a slightly more conservative state. However, if we can keep the losses to a minimum (ie. keep them outside of Brissie) it will all depend on NSW’s performance.
As for Solomon… bloody hell, I always forget about Solomon. Any Territorians here who can give a report on the situation there?
In the know @63
No way will ALP lose more than 5 in NSW.
Probable losses including notionally held: Robertson, Gilmore, Macquarie
Possible losses: Macarthur, Dobell?
Cant see any other seat in danger.
Forgot to add, Hughes is a possible gain
[Cant see any other seat in danger.]
Bennelong and/or Lindsay may be at risk.
In the know @63
[No way will ALP lose more than 5 in NSW.
Probable losses including notionally held: Robertson, Gilmore, Macquarie
Possible losses: Macarthur, Dobell?
Cant see any other seat in danger]
What about Wentworth, (just kidding!)
benj
dobell
no way
true believers here mate
“Ya think!”
A discussion starter…..and it appears to be working….people are talking about there knowledge and opinions about seats…..so yeah….I think.
its the vibe @88
No Maxine is safe. Lindsay should be Ok (would like a poll though!!)
Sorry Benji, you meant possbile losses to Labor of course, didn’t read it properly the first time.
William it rather sounds like necromancy to me.
Does Westpoll take an 80% Green->ALP flow from 2007, or from its survey/s? If the latter, the number of Greens they encountered must have been under under 60. If the former, are things in WA particularly polarised on an environmentalism vs economy scale? And how reliable would 2007 flows be if the Greens WA are really on track to record a 5% swing? And why am I asking so many rhetorical questions?
gusface,
hope so. i have seen Craig in his office at Tuggerah, impressive bloke.
in the unlikely event,and I stress unlikely event of it being real close
WA may save the day
even 2 will do
three will lead to glee
JUst had to laugh.
Hunt said during the mini debate on Lateline that it was ‘bunkum’ that stimulus had any effect on our survival of the GFC. He said it was purely the financial state that the ALP inherited.
The regukar Friday night economist came on after and said, and am paraphrasing, that what Hunt said was “Bunkum” (he did use that word).
Shame Hunt wasn’t debating him and Leigh just asked questions of esteemed Sustainable Population minister.
Tony Burke’s performance on Lateline just now is the reason why Labor is losing this election. The only way they win this thing is by beating the Liberals at their own game. Every Liberal lie has to be countered, every con-job exposed. Labor needs to start showing some mongrel. They’ve got a bloody election to win! There is no way we can go back to Howard, which, according to Hartcher, is what Tony is promising. Understand this, if the Libs win they’ll be in for another decade and this country will be ruined because of it. Tony Abbott is Australia’s George W Bush. He is the most belligerent, politically incompetent, disinterested, uncommitted, uninspired and uninspiring man to ever seek the high office of Prime Minister. It’s obvious to anyone with two working eyes and a functioning brain that he doesn’t want the job and God help us all if he actually gets. To paraphrase Bushfire Bill, fight you Labor bastards, fight!
Ok, just catching up on the posts after having a sleep for most of the day (Went to bed after Julia’s BER Presser)
Nielsen moving to Labor, as is Westpoll – Kev & Julia doing a jopint appearance on Sunday which will suck out all of the oxygen of the LIbs Campaign Launch will be the ultimate game changer.
I’m confident.
Lib’s being shrill here indicates multiple changes of brown stained underwear 🙂
Beaglie,
The slim hopes which Labor’s Reilly has of pulling a roughie out of Gilmore are based on a redistribution favorable to ALP and on the Greens candidate strongly advocating that his preferences go directly to Reilly rather than incumbent Joanna Gash.
A major obstacle is that Gash is the beneficiary of so much adulation from ” The Illawarra Mercury” that she won’t need to cough up much for her advertising.