Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in Lindsay; 50-50 in Dawson

The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.

For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.

UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.

UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,110 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in Lindsay; 50-50 in Dawson”

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  2. William @ 2851

    [Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but a superb Labor ad was aired on Channel Nine in Perth just now highlighting that John Hewson and Peter Costello had mocked Tony Abbott’s understanding of economics. Most effective ad of the campaign so far, in my opinion.]

    Indeed, yes. This ad got a good run on some of the commercials in Sydney and multiple times on SkyNews tonight.

    Very effective, and we need more of this to point out the obvious flaws and contradictions in Abbott’s resume, as the idiots in the media apparently will not, consumed as they are with trivia and gossip.

  3. [Psephos,

    You have a references for this?]

    He comes from good Ballarat Irish Catholic DLP stock, he opposed WorkChoices, he’s a republican, and he went to school with Paul Bongiorno. He takes the official conservative church line on sexual matters, but on economic and social policy he follows Rerum Novarum, which Labor policy embodies.

  5. [Cardinal Pell votes Labor.]

    Sure thing Pseph, whatever you say. You forgot the smiley face.

    If that were the case he wouldn’t be so pally the Abbott’s of this world.

  6. He comes from good Ballarat Irish Catholic DLP stock, he opposed WorkChoices, he’s a republican, and he went to school with Paul Bongiorno. He takes the official conservative church line on sexual matters, but on economic and social policy he follows Rerum Novarum, which Labor policy embodies.

    Yeah, yeah, and he’s Tony Abbott’s best mate, whom Abbott suggest takes his confession personally. Like we all get the Cardinal to confess to.

  7. [My understanding is that JG still wants a debate but TAbbott resisting hence Town Hall style forum. #ausvotes 3 minutes ago via Echofon from here Retweeted by teenman]
    As soon as she starts she should shape up to him and call him out for being an out and out coward and ask the audience what they want.

  9. [He said under the Coalition spending would always be less and tax would always be lower than under Labor.]

    This one sounded an awful lot like Interest Rates would always be lower under a coalition government. Funny that we haven’t heard much of that one this campaign. Has the cat got the Rabbott’s tongue?

  10. [If that were the case he wouldn’t be so pally the Abbott’s of this world.]

    He is but a mere shepherd looking out for one of his flock.

  11. “Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but a superb Labor ad was aired on Channel Nine in Perth just now highlighting that John Hewson and Peter Costello had mocked Tony Abbott’s understanding of economics. Most effective ad of the campaign so far, in my opinion.”

    Sounds good – does anyone have a link to it online?

  12. HC1

    [so they move to cover that group. however, not only does the labor party risk splitting itself, it may cause ‘left’ supporters in the party to find solace with the greens!]

    I agree totally, although Greens are also attracting young, otherwise conservative, voters who know little about politics.

    Which is precisely why I think Andrew Bartlett in the seat of Brisbane will simply cannibalise progressive votes from the ALP. I still think Gambaro might just win that one. This is a rare moment of electoral risk for me, because the odds are worse than Labor winning the election.

  14. “We’re getting 30 second “Old Julia-new Julia didn’t-won’t stop the boats” in Adelaide.

    I’m really hating this election.”

    Great. Then you just keep concern-trolling every single thing Labor says or does. You’ve been doing it for years. Before much longer, there is a pretty good chance you will be living under an Abbott regime. You know, the one he didn’t mention in this campaign or at any other time. By the sound of things, you will fit right in.

    Personally, I was sickened by the ABC’s efforts with todays 1100 news. I actually rang them and spoke to a person – one with a name for a change- Peter Hughes – who said it was perfectly acceptable that the ABC have someone like Scott Morrison regurgitate Liberal slogans as part of the first news item. He was actually prepared (at 1110, saying that Morrison only spoke for 12 seconds, so they know they are being watched, or listened to). I hung up in the coke-suckers ear so I don’t know what else he had to say in justifying Coalition bias. But he did a massive job doing while he was talking to me.

  15. yes that Labor Add seems to gone National tonite quoting Hewson and Costello (visually)
    ridiculing Tony Abbots finance skills It will bite

    Also like to US econamist lauriet advisor to both Clinton and Obama Prof Stiglker’s words about oz best in world re GFC Stimili in an Add

    (because he ALSO says some ‘waste’ is inevitable , but less ‘waste’ (in employ , growth) capital wasted etc) than occurs if ineffective GFC action was taken

    i think this is NEEDED as a rebut to Abbotts BER and Insulaton waste/rorts Adds

  16. [Perahelion, Latham’s on next week. This Sunday wouldn’t get him enough attention]

    Thanks Itep, you helped me out again, but I didn’t watch it, just recorded, a friend came over. Now I can delete it.

  17. cuppa
    I totally agree. I put it in the context of Bushisms because the media reported it as a joke. Well if they report it as a joke. What can we say? Personally, I think he is downright dangerous.

    [The Bushisms were simply head-over-heels verbal incompetence. But can the same be said for Rabbottisms?

    Who’s to say the “guided democracy” thing was a foot-in-mouth moment or a joke? Remember, a lot of serious things are said in jest.

    And the “I thought no meant no” remarks. That wasn’t an accident; it was premeditated, rehearsed and deliberate. We know this because he said it FOUR TIMES against a FEMALE opponent.]

  19. Via the Tony Abbott will never be Prime Minister Facebook page – Contact details for the various media outlets.

    Tony Abbott will never be prime minister
    The Australian

     http://www.theaustralian.com.au/help/contactus 

    Courier Mail
    ……
     http://www.couriermail.com.au/help/contactus 

    Daily Telegraph

     http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/help/contactus 

    Adelaide Now

     http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/help/contactus 

    Perth Now

     http://www.perthnow.com.au/help/contactus 

    Herald Sun

     http://www.heraldsun.com.au/help/contactus 

    News.com.au

     http://www.news.com.au/help/contactus 

    Media Watch

     http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/contactus.htm 

    Channel 9

     http://help.ninemsn.com.au/support/channel9.asp 

    60 minutes

     http://sixtyminutes.ninemsn.com.au/feedback.aspx?sectionid=5562&sectionname=contactus&formid=2363 

    Channel 7

     http://help.yahoo.com/l/au/yahoo7/tv/basics/tvcontactchan7.html 

    Channel 10

     http://ten.com.au/contact-us.htm 

    ABC – Sydney

     http://whitepages.com.au/wp/busCrossRef.do?bookID=N00W&subscriberName=Australian+Broadcasting+Corporation&state=AU&crossReferenceHash=132480731&page=1&refinement=true&refinementType=crossReference&crossReferenceReferrer=N00W%23710025285N00W%23ABC 

    ABC – Brisbane

     http://whitepages.com.au/wp/busCrossRef.do?street=Gold+Coast&subscriberName=Australian+Broadcasting+Corporation&state=QLD&crossReferenceHash=132480731&suburb=Mermaid+Beach&page=1&refinement=true&refinementType=crossReference&crossReferenceReferrer=Q05W%23710528100Q05W%23ABC 

    ABC – Melbourne

     http://whitepages.com.au/wp/busCrossRef.do?bookID=V00W&subscriberName=Australian+Broadcasting+Corporation&state=AU&crossReferenceHash=132480731&page=1&refinement=true&refinementType=crossReference&crossReferenceReferrer=V00W%23653693519V00W%23ABC 

    ABC – Perth
     http://whitepages.com.au/wp/busCrossRef.do?bookID=W00W&subscriberName=Australian+Broadcasting+Corporation&state=AU&crossReferenceHash=132480731&page=1&refinement=true&refinementType=crossReference&crossReferenceReferrer=W00W%23352728730W00W%23ABCSee  more
    31 minutes ago · Like

  20. Cheers Mick!

    Kevin Andrews – didn’t know much about him. That’s all I need to know about him. I went on an Outward Bound hike for 3 weeks near abergowrie. It was a great experience. Yeah, we talked all day about abortion….not. Actually, not at all. We were too busy pulling leeches and ticks!

  22. Ron
    [Also like to US econamist lauriet advisor to both Clinton and Obama Prof Stiglker’s words about oz best in world re GFC Stimili in an Add ]
    Were his comments in the ad or do you mean you would like to see them in an ad?

  24. [Maybe if you got over your bigotry, they might be influenced by your views too.]
    Established religions receive many privileges and concessions in our society because they are supposedly seen as providing a public good. If high office bearers in organised religions want to take political positions and try to persuade their followers to follow such pronouncements then they should be recognised as political players and be subject to criticism just like any other political player.

    Suffer in your rosary.

  25. latikambourke

    Daily Tele hosting forum and Sky broadcasting with @David_Speers moderating. Voters selected by Galaxy attending. #ausvotes #notadebate 5 minutes ago via Echofon Retweeted by teenman

    Basically a liberal love in:-)

  27. Sheesh:

    Paul Murray Paul_MurrayMMM

    Former Labor Leader Mark Latham will be my guest on Sky News Monday night 9:15 – 10pm to discuss the events of the weekend & #ausvotes wk3. less than 10 seconds ago via Echofon

  29. The majority, probably 70%, of Victorian Irish Catholic DLP voters went back to Labor when Hawke got the DLP unions reaffiliated with Labor in about 1982, and I’m certain Pell did too.

  30. I have never understood the American extremist behaviour of bombing, threatening, causing potential harm to staff in Abortion Clinics. I would have thought that was not very pro-life?

    Here in Australia, we have nothing like that. Barely even a picket.

    I hate abortion and can’t stand the fact that we kill 90 000 babies a year. I still don’t think that staff at these clinics should be threatened or at risk of personal harm. I just wish mothers in crisis could be given more options, adoption is far better than abortion surely.

    What they don’t tell you at those clinics is the pain of waking up every day knowing that you killed your own child.

  33. 2917
    Dee

    [cuppa
    I totally agree. I put it in the context of Bushisms because the media reported it as a joke. Well if they report it as a joke. What can we say? Personally, I think he is downright dangerous]

    It would be more appropriate to report it as a joke in the same fashion they reported Garrets joke at the last election.

    I seriously wonder what they think the public thinks about their integrity of their job/profession when the Norm Gunston has just exploded in their face.

    They are charlatans the lot of them.
    That is my thoughts anyway.

  35. Mick
    [Here in Australia, we have nothing like that. Barely even a picket.]
    We used to.
    Dr.Bertram Wainer(deceased) who had a clinic in Melbourne was constantly harrassed and picketted. Pro-Life protesters used to surround the ingoing & outcoming patients & terrorise them.
    I believe he had windows smashed, staffed had malicious damage to cars. Truly awful crap.

  37. What I don’t understand now is that I had a friend who had her baby delivered at 25 weeks, due to a very rare condition with a twin baby who died in the womb. That baby is healthy now and well.

    Some babies are aborted at this age. If that friend of mine killed her baby once delivered, she could go to jail. The women that abort children of the same age are hailed as champions of women’s health. I thought bull-fighting was barbaric. At least the bull gets to fight back…

    I also can’t believe the women that hide behind the word: Foetus. A latin word which means very little. This stage is an arbitrary label given by the medical community.

    I know vegetarians who won’t eat meat because the animals are killed barbarically. Some of these have had abortions. How hypocritical.

  40. Mick,

    You’d be wrong.

    The anti abortion lobby are loud and most virulent here in Victoria. They mounted a shock attack a couple of years ago which involved the distribution of pamphlets with pictures of aborted foetus. Did their cause no end of harm.

    I’m anti abortion, but I respect the law and certainly condemn harrassment and violence targetted at doctors, nurses and patients.

  41. I didn’t know that Rabbott was a fan of Henry Tax Reform too. It is the money- go-round that traps people in poverty according to Rabbott.

    [Some of Henry’s recommendations are impractical and a few wrong-headed. Some, though, such as his recommendations for lower, simpler, fairer personal income taxes and an end to the money-go-round that traps people in poverty should be the foundation of Australia’s next round of tax reform.]

  42. [What is your gut feel about the election result as of right now?]

    I think Labor is ahead in enough seats to win. We will lose some in NSW and Qld, pick up one or two in Vic and/or SA, finish net down a few.

  43. [They are charlatans the lot of them.
    That is my thoughts anyway.]
    Gaffhook, I believe that 99.9% of bloggers on here don’t ‘think’ they are charlatans. We know they are.

  45. [Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but a superb Labor ad was aired on Channel Nine in Perth just now highlighting that John Hewson and Peter Costello had mocked Tony Abbott’s understanding of economics. Most effective ad of the campaign so far, in my opinion.]
    It was shown her in Brisbane as well. With friends like that…

  46. Dee

    [We used to.
    Dr.Bertram Wainer(deceased) who had a clinic in Melbourne was constantly harrassed and picketted. Pro-Life protesters used to surround the ingoing & outcoming patients & terrorise them.
    I believe he had windows smashed, staffed had malicious damage to cars. Truly awful crap.]

    I understand Dee. You said ‘we used to’. I remember pickets too, in the 1980s/1990s up in Greenslopes. Never heard of any damage. I’ve seen worse with student demonstrations on campus. Not really a strong point.

    One of the main ways they kill babies is to inject it with KCl (Potassium Chloride). I am a chemist and know exactly what lethal doses do. That baby has a fully functioning nervous system and will writhe in pain until dead as the overdose of Potassium Ions sends the CNS into overdrive to stop the heart. I wouldn’t wish that on my worst enemy. In the US, even states with the death penalty do this more humanely.

    I believe babies simply shouldn’t be killed.

    I’m sorry about the clinic windows and the Doc’s car, I’m sure they were replaced.

  47. Well, looks like Julia G has had some sucess smoking Abbooott out of his hole.

    I think that after she agreed to do QANDA this monday, Tones had to do SOMETHING. Complete avoidance was no longer an option or the press pack would be calling for him to grow a pair on a daily basis.

    He has had a bit of a win in that being a “Town Hall” format the discussion wont be limited to his weak point (the Economy) and Julia G will face some hostile questions on AS, Batts, poor Kevie.

    However, she gets a pretty good work up on Monday night facing the audience on QANDA. Live, unscripted?? Good practice for the Wednesday event, and the ALP machine can do some examination of her responses and the audience reaction to help fine tune for Wednesday. Dangerous, but Julia’s element, and Tony’s known weakness.

    Abboot and his rabble are going to be looking at a very uncomfortable last 2 weeks of the campaign.

  49. Dee
    Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

    Ron

    ‘ Also like to US econamist lauriet advisor to both Clinton and Obama Prof Stiglker’s words about oz best in world re GFC Stimili in an Add ‘

    “Were his comments in the ad or do you mean you would like to see them in an ad? ”

    Dee , no that is an additional oz wide TV add I’d like run

    Prof stigler was interviewed on 7.30 Report by Red Ted about 10 days ago for 20 minutes he quoted stats and econamic reasons WHY oz was bet Stimili in world

    and he thn explained as I recall that keynesian pump priming specif as oz unlike most Countrys did) directed to labor intensive building type sectors (read Insulaton and BER) were best bests as oz did achieve

    BUT that scale size of no of projects it had to intail and quick speed needed to implament means some waste is pre known and inevitable …BUT Country benefit is no recession with all its adverse negs and that these benefits well exceed ‘inevitable waste’

    Dee so ie he said bluntly you MUST get ‘waste either way , a recession (with great ‘waste’ or a non recession like oz with little releitive waste)

    (And also said that Minign boom ws only a bonus but oz’s excellent stimili was key to us avoiding GFC)

    Prof Stigler’s words not only show Labor govt as best at econamics re GFC , but exposes ‘waste’/ BER & Insulation Abbott claims

  50. [I think Labor is ahead in enough seats to win.]

    Newspoll notwithstanding, I think Labor should be feeling very upbeat following the coalition launch. No new policy announcements, no articulation of a vision for the country, let alone in their first term, and the plea to Australians to vote them into office and then they’ll outline their economic platform.

    Abbott has outlined a plan for the next 3 months, not an agenda for his first term in office. I expect Labor will make merry hay with that.

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