Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in Lindsay; 50-50 in Dawson

The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.

For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.

UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.

UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,110 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in Lindsay; 50-50 in Dawson”

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  1. Frank C. what the F., Of course Kevin Rudd is a part of Government. The Labor party is in government and last I looked KR is not running as an independent. He holds labor values and does not want to see Australia go backwards. You can not secure a ministerial posting (Other then opposition minister) if your team does not win the election. As much as Rudd may have helped the Liberal Party escape critical review and has distracted the government from getting its message out I do not see the Liberal Coalition if it creeps across the line a ministerial portfolio of any note. (Maybe an overseas posting) Should labor lose I guess KR will not remain in office for long. No matter which side wins or loses I suspect we will also see a number of resignations to follow.

    The Greens are set to double their representation in the Senate. Many people will vote Green in the Senate and will not vote Green in the lower house and risk stability of government. (Generally those that vote below the line will vote more strategically in the lower house. Its one thing to give the Greens representation in the Senate another to allow allow them a house of reps seat.

    What is interesting in this campaign is the now being won or lost on of what is essentially State based issues. The division of Federal to State is being blurred. This is most likely due to Labour holding office in all but one state. In the end the economy and the threat of a double dip global recession will way heavy on the minds of the voters.

    If the balance of power is close Australia will not be in a good position to provide good governance. Better the devil you know then the one you do not. Incumbency at this time is a strong ally. Abbott strategy is to regain incumbency at all cost and then hope to win a second election (With a double dissolution) which will then see a return of work choices and other extreme policies implemented. We MUST never forget the Liberal NO GST policy. What was it that Abbott said about core and non core policies?

  2. Reported in hard Copy of Age on Neilson

    Qld 42-58 Coalition

    However Vic, SA, and NSW Labor ahead on TPP (but no figures).

    While Qld is bad, NSW is a bit of a suprise.

  3. The 7% swing in Lindsay seems more like a return to normality given the backlash against the Lindsay pamphlet scandal in 2007, giving Bradbury a bigger win than he otherwise may have gotten.

  4. [ I really should be down at South Terrace throwing bottles at cop cars with the other kids my age. ]

    They throw bottles at cop cars these days? Jeez, I’m lucky these days that ‘going down to Freo’ means one of Mojo’s, the Railway or the Swan, all in North Freo on the other side of the river. (With a very occasional option on the Norfolk.) I lived in Freo and Beaconsfield for a while, and I have been to all three nightclubs in Freo (yep, even the Zanzi, which hasn’t been around for a while)… that’ll do me. People a bit older than me bitterly remember the west end having something other than a small uni.

  5. As for political comment, which maybe I oughta make…

    Last weekend, we had the western derby, so the front page of Monday’s West was reserved for whoever won (carn the Dockers 😀 ). This week, the home game is the battle between 15th and 16th on the ladder, so that front page will be a lot more open for whatever Stephen Smith, Colin Barnett or whoever wants to say about stuff. Not sure how much it matters, but at least they have a chance of a front page.

  6. Joffaboy said:

    [Reported in hard Copy of Age on Neilson

    Qld 42-58 Coalition

    However Vic, SA, and NSW Labor ahead on TPP (but no figures).

    While Qld is bad, NSW is a bit of a suprise.]

    Welcome to the world of small sub samples. Basically the amount of people sampled in each state allows for huge margins of error. Hence why you see NSW with a huge ALP TPP in one Nielsen followed by a huge lead to the Coalition in the next Nielsen.
    Thus you shouldn’t take these state TPP numbers too seriously when looking at just one poll. What you could do is add up the state samples from multiple polls to give you a better idea of what is going on.

    I was wondering if anyone bothered polling Lindsay this election. Last election I was polled two or three times but since the campaing has started there has been not a single call. Personally, if Bradbury loses I wouldn’t feel that sad because I think he just reinforced the boat people paranoia. Then again there are lots of uneducated (usually Labor voters) that have this irrational fear and no amount of arguing is going to stop that fear. So maybe I’m too harsh in my opinion of him.

    Also I haven’t seen a single Lib or Labor poster up anywhere in my area. Strange. Usually there would be half a dozen Lib posters up by now.

  7. re Julia going on QuandA. When this was first announced I heard someone on our ABC saying that MRabbot had declined to appear but that they were hoping to change his mind.

  8. Thanks for the excellent summary post leads William.

    A few thoughts:

    At this point it is pooling so close that Labro shoudl seriously start considering how to woo the independents. I have two suggestions: first point out that coalition CC policy does nothing for farmers, because there is no source of $ to bankroll soil carbon schemes without an ETS. Second Labor is committed to taking broadband to country areas that will be scrapped by the coalition. third the Melbourne Brisbane rail link would greatly benefit rural NSW, and the Liberals in office consistently underfunded transport infrastructure, with the sole exception of the NT rail white elephant. Plus Labor will work on health, and rural health is a huge issue. Tony Abbott’s cuts to health hurt rural patients even more than urban ones.

    Next, from the previous thread, does nayone have an opinion on what are Alannah McTiernan’s chances in Canning? She was an excellent transport minister, and Labor should make the most of her ability.

    Third, I agree with ruawake: keep attacking Abbott on unfunded promises and fake cost estimates. He has lots of embarrassing quotes on the record about him not understanding economics, and cutting health. So if he has guessed wrong with his promises, he either doesn’t deliver, or cuts health again.

  9. I had a nightmare last night. We were back in the past with PM Abbott residing in Kirribilli and the rodent and Hyacinth living it up in Yarralumla. The only good thing to come out of this horror scene was seeing the “masses” out in the streets in their millions yelling for the blood of the country’s media journalists who’d led them up the garden path by promoting a turd.

  10. On the Highlights of week 2 thread at post 3 I said:
    “I think we would need a very big swing to the ALP to hold Leichardt. I can’t see us winning this seat for a lot or reasons. I think Herbert will be won by the ALP even if we don’t do that well at a national level. I still think Moscow Brunker’s chances are very underated in Dawson and it is a likely win”.

    Most things haven’t changed. Leichhardt is still gooooone as the ALP has a very very ordinary sitting member. The Lib candidate is very different and larger than life which plays out well in Nth QLD (see Bob Katter advertisement). He has a great deal of credibility in indigenous community’s which is a big issue in that seat.

    Herbert will still be won by the ALP with a very good margin and that will be confirmed by any future Newspoll. There are a lot of reasons for this, but I won’t bore you. As an aside I reckon this will be the first seat outside Brisbane that the Ruddster will support. He chose the candidate personally and with Kevin’s ego he will want to be right. Plus he likes Mooney.

    Dawson is close but Moscow Brunker will probably win. The newspoll was conducted before the Kevin comeback which will have played out really well in Dawson.

    The current margin for Dawson on the pendulum was set with a dill of a candidate. What has really happened in Dawson is the change from the sugar town of De-Anne Kelly to a mining town. When you are there the change is unbelievable as mining is just exploding and getting bigger and bigger all the time.

    Some posters have said the mining tax will play out in this town. That is dead set wrong. Moscow Brunker is a former miner and the local CFMEU organiser’s name is Brunker. Every second person in Collinsville is named Brunker and miners’ vote for miners. Plus Moscow is a very successful long term Mayor of Bowen. He turned the finances of this community completely around.

    Finally he is big, boofy, approachable and funny. Bit like your nice pissed uncle at Christmas. Oh and he is larger than life and a little different (see Bob Katter advertisement).

  11. Howard said interest rates will always be lower under a Liberal government or wtte. He knew that was a lie but said it anyway.

    JG should remind people of Howard’s lie. She should then say that interest rates will be lower under her government than under Abbott. A much more realistic statement which might resonate.

  12. [She should then say that interest rates will be lower under her government than under Abbott.]

    and she should say this 5 times per day every day for 2 weeks solid

  13. PvO:

    [Abbott’s unwillingness to debate Gillard on the economy is the crucial link Labor needs to give its claims about economic management deficiencies in the Coalition more credibility. It allows them to highlight Abbott’s traditional disinterest in economics, raised by none other than Peter Costello (and Abbott himself), as the reason he won’t do the debate.]

    Personally I think they should just keep doing what they are doing: focusing on the rubberyness of the coalition figures, hammering on Abbott’s lack of economic experience (and that of Hockey and Robb), his lack of interest in the subject, and pointing to his running away from voter scrutiny on the economy. They’ve been doing this all week, and it would appear have arrested the poll slide. All that remains to be seen is if they can turn the polls around.

  14. [They’ve been doing this all week, and it would appear have arrested the poll slide.]

    At the end of the day the punters will vote with their hip pocket and the economy is all the matters. If they keep focused on this message relentlessly they will be returned.

  15. Has anyone posted the Wespoll results?

    [Westpoll found that while the coalition (48 per cent) and Labor (35 per cent) both lost one point in primary support, the expected preference flow from the Greens has tightened the contest significantly.

    On a two-party preferred basis, the coalition is ahead of the ALP 52-48. If replicated on polling day, Labor would retain all four of its WA Federal seats and pick up the Liberal-held seat of Swan.]

    Teh Greens came in at 14%.

  16. AlanShore @ 98 previous thread

    [Labor needs to start showing some mongrel. They’ve got a bloody election to win! There is no way we can go back to Howard, which, according to Hartcher, is what Tony is promising. Understand this, if the Libs win they’ll be in for another decade and this country will be ruined because of it. Tony Abbott is Australia’s George W Bush. He is the most belligerent, politically incompetent, disinterested, uncommitted, uninspired and uninspiring man to ever seek the high office of Prime Minister.]
    I agree with most of this – except the “politically incompetent”. He, like Geo. W, has to have some considerable political talent to get ~50% support. His continuous repitition of the 4 point action plan has clearly been effective; it cant all be a weak Labor campaign

  17. #32 William Bowe

    Pleased to see you are quoting from websites as authority for your point of view. I am sure that use of such quotes to support a proposition would go down a treat in an academic thesis.

    True it may be that colloquially members of the majority party are called the “government”, and indeed Speakers refer to the “government”, as a short hand way of referring to the benches occupied by the majority party BUT it is only the Ministers who are the Government.

    My point ? Rudd is a backbencher in the parliament who sits on the government benches. Technically, he has no more authority than any other backbencher. Suggestions he has some other status are flawed. Whether he exercises some greater “moral authority” in the political sense, than other backbenchers, is yet to be seen. Clearly Gillard believes he does. An argument could be mounted he holds greater “moral authority” in a political sense, than Gillard does.

  18. I was astounded at the coverage the very good BER report received. If there was any doubt about the media running an agenda, it has to have evaporated by now.

    2.7% complaints out of 10,586 schools and over 24,000 projects. Only half of them, 1.35%, were concerned with VFM (Value For Money). Tens of thousands of jobs saved directly, hundreds of thousands indirectly. More education infrastructure built in two years than in the previous 10, or perhaps 20 years. 97.3% of recipients perfectly happy. 5% premium in costs due to the great speed with which the program was implemented. Orgill, in his presser, pointed out that this program was a major contributor to saving the economy. He cited evidence from contributing contractors that a significant amount regard it as saving their businesses. Most were proud to be part of it.

    And all the media, including the ABC could talk about was the tiny proportion of disgruntled schools, 1.35%, that thought they got a raw deal.

    This is negativism writ large. The glass isn’t half full, it’s 97.3% full, and still the media are whingeing about the dregs in the bottom of the cup. Abbott is let go to do what he wants. Pyne gets away with just making up an “$8 billion dollar” figure out of thin air as the “waste” amount.

    The caravan has moved on already. For the centrepiece of the Coalition’s attack on the government – month after month after month of carping and whining about the BER has disappeared in a puff of smoke. The verdict is in and there will not be any more information or coverage of it to let the punters make up their own minds. Just let it lie safe, as a huge negative for the government, against all the evidence, unreported, just a sound bite, long forgotten.

    Last night on Lateline the reporter said this was the “first report” on the BER. No it wasn’t. It was the second. The other report, from the Auditor-General, was positive too, but the ABC seems to have forgotten about that. No matter, whatever the media says is the only truth. One report it is, a positive one, hugely positive, but now officially classed as a “disaster” for the government. For those who like their news in bite-sized chunks, that’s all they need to know.

    Like the tradie who came to my house yesterday. He works in roofing. Made a fortune from putting insulation in peoples’ roofs. Worked on the BER insulating schools. Employed 8 people in the process. 2,000 houses. Yet all he could do was whinge that some money was wasted. That we avoided the GFC, never went into recession hardly registed on his consciousness. It didn’t matter that a 97.3% successful government program is a miracle, especially given the urgency of its implementation, and the money he personally made. The media have done their job. All he’s worried about are the dregs in the bottom of the glass, not the rich liquor of success, not that our country is the envy of the world, not that every economist of any note, from everywhere in the world, believes the response was brilliant and decisive. This man is a paradigm of the notion that, if everywhere you look you see only lies, then you’ll believe black is white. You’ll vote against your own interests, You’ll take us back to the dark ages over… nothing.

    It’s not a matter of Julia cutting through. They just won’t show her in her best light. The media won’t print even a shadow of the truth. Their favourite word is, “but…”. Everything is twisted and warped, a caricature of reportage, pack behaviour gone mad.

    If Labor wins (and now sadly it’s a big “if”) I don’t want any mercy shown. No more appointing Liberals as ambassadors, or to cosy board positions, or easy UN missions that feed their lazy arses while they snipe and lie back at the hand that succors them in their mediocrity. I want them gone out of the public limelight forever. I want the ABC purged, from the top down. That’s what the Libs would do, and have done. Labor needs to get tough, vicious. They need to stop squabbling among themselves and start inflicting pain and genuine damage on the real enemy. Wipe them out. Send them back to the Stone Age where they’re happiest. Gut them. Make them squeal and beg for mercy. Give sad sack Andrew Robb something to get genuinely depressed about.

    And then rebuild.

  19. From Kochie:

    david koch kochie_online

    All these polls are doing my head in. They’re getting way out of hand. So I just go back to the most reliable. Labor $1.54 Coalition $2.46 2 minutes ago via Twitter for iPhone

  20. [My point ? Rudd is a backbencher in the parliament who sits on the government benches. Technically, he has no more authority than any other backbencher. ]
    I bet he has more chance of deciding the Prime Minister and government policies than Peter slipper has. A government is formed by a collection of a majority of the members of the lower house who will vote together to support the executive. You really are clutching at straws to denigrate Rudd for some reason.

  21. I lived in Lindsay through most of Jackie Kelly’s reign. Notwithstanding Kelly’s being a complete phony, she was adored by all and sundry but especially by the “aspirationals” as they were termed then.

    Bradbury was easy meat for Kelly in two elections before ’07, and despite being Mayor of Penrith he is seriously charisma-challenged. I attended a Citizenship ceremony at which he mumbled through an excruciatingly boring speech delivered in such a low monotone that few of the new Aussies could hear, and even fewer comprehend, it.

    Unless the Lib candidate’s rels go fake pampleteering again, Lindsay was always going to be tough for Labor to hold, especially when the aspirationals would be far more comfortable voting for a “Macho Man” (not the Village People version I hasten to add)like Abbott than a “toff” like Turnbull.

  22. [Shadow finance minister Andrew Robb said yesterday the Coalition had ”submitted a large body of work to our independent accounting group” a week ago, and was still waiting to hear back.

    ”As they work through programs, we are then submitting them to Treasury,” Robb said. ”We will demonstrate that on the savings side and on the spending side, that we can produce a stronger surplus.”]

    That is code for;
    ‘We are looking at independant accountant groups in search of some creative cost analysis’. ‘What we need is a creative financial smokescreen to bury the issue during the election’

  23. #71
    [ You really are clutching at straws to denigrate Rudd for some reason. ]


    I am merely pointing out that Rudd is a backbencher and is not part of the “Government” (correctly used and not in its technical sense). I have not denigrated him at all. I have suggested he has greater “authority” in a political sense than Gillard does. If that amounts to denigration of Rudd in your mind, so be it.

  24. What will Abbott do for the first year or so if he gets in?

    PPL isn’t due to start until 2012 (if ever)
    Health takeover is planned for 2014
    Workchoices comes back in 2013
    No timeframe on any broadband.

    And the papers are still pushing the story Abbott would have to face a senate in which greens hold balance of power.

    This only applies from July 2011, until then Abbott can count on Fielding and Xenophon to a certain extent to pass his legislation.

    An enticement to Fielding as head of the film classification and to Xenophon of funds to the Murray and anti-pokie legislation would secure their votes.

  25. #74
    [ (correctly used and not in its technical sense) ]

    OOOPs. Should read:
    correctly used and not in its colloquial sense

  26. [“In the ’70s the Labor campaign director was well-liked, a fair dinkum Aussie larrikin, not a member of the detested caste of ruthless robotic machine men that run Labor’s campaigns today.”
    John Della Bosca’s blast on ALP officials ]

    Now I know why Labor were in Govt. for only 3 years in the 70s. The campaign directors were too boozed up to run anything properly.

    Now we have another vitriolic bloke who’s been cossetted by his Party for years is now bagging them just before an election. What is it with these guys – they’ve certainly got no class.

  27. BB, another cogent and lucid post.

    [It didn’t matter that a 97.3% successful government program is a miracle, especially given the urgency of its implementation, and the money he personally made.]

    All the more miraculous given that the NSW government was involved and responsible for the lion’s share of cost blow-outs and dissatisfaction.

    As for your installation bloke, I doubt he’d ever be voting Labor even if he’d become a multi-millionaire via the BER. I work closely with a range of small business people in one of Labor’s safest electorates—yet, listening to them incessantly bitch and moan about the Labor Party, one would think this was St. Ives in Sydney’s northern burbs.

  28. [Now we have another vitriolic bloke who’s been cossetted by his Party for years is now bagging them just before an election. What is it with these guys – they’ve certainly got no class.]
    Maybe the financial incentive from the Mr.Bigs is too hard for some ministers to resist. Let’s face it. Far cheaper, less muddier publicly to actually reward a few ministers or ministerial staff to ruin the election. A pay off for negative comment.

  29. [Socrates
    Posted Saturday, August 7, 2010 at 8:29 am | Permalink
    Looks like home loan rates are now trending down despite Labor’s “reckless spending”:

    Please explain, Mr Abbott and Mr Hockey.]

    Probable too early to say “deflation will aways be less under labor”, but that is stating to look like the problem that is going to have to be fixed.

  30. cudchewer – when you’re around. Thanks for 300 last night. Great news. We start prepolling up here on Monday so may get better idea of the northern end then.

  31. This bit is apt from Hugh Mackay – re polling:

    Media coverage of the opinion polls is also puzzling. Journalists work themselves into a lather over weekly bounces in the polls, apparently oblivious to history. Polls taken just before campaigns begin usually point to the result; mid-campaign fluctuations track little more than day-to-day responses to the torrent of media coverage.

    Polls published during campaigns contribute nothing to this democracy. They distract us and fuel the unedifying idea that an election is like a boxing match. “Who won the week?” must stand as the most pointless question the media pose. 

  32. [Things are unbearably close but that means there’s still a good chance Labor can squeak by]

    When you say that ltep it probably means they’ll win with a leg in the air (to use horse racing parlance)

  33. Labor needs many – and simple – TV ads. Like:

    Labor’s School Report.


    Can improve remaining 2.7% by attention to small details.

  34. #75

    If Abbott wins this election, it might be convenient to blame the press. However, surely the big guns should be aimed at the Right-Wing-Nutters who assassinated a PM (who in 2007 became PM because a majority of people supported candidates who had pledged their intention to support him for PM) just 2 months out from an election.

  35. And a Before & After home insulation table using Possum’s figure.

    Not to mention more graphs of Australia’s economy cf. comparable countries.

  36. Young Peter

    What part of:
    [An exclusive Newspoll for The Weekend Australian reveals the Coalition is still ahead on primary votes in the crucial western Sydney seat of Lindsay and the Queensland regional marginal seat of Dawson, but support for Labor and Ms Gillard has leapt since Kevin Rudd was dumped.]

    Do you fail to comprehend?

  37. [Reported in hard Copy of Age on Neilson

    Qld 42-58 Coalition

    However Vic, SA, and NSW Labor ahead on TPP (but no figures).

    While Qld is bad, NSW is a bit of a suprise]

    I suspect these figures will need to ne added to possum’s combined state totals before they will have any worth?

  38. [Sunday night’s Newspoll is going to determine a lot.]
    Not necessarily.
    I think a bombshell regarding the Rabbott is only days away. 😉
    The Coalition know that the ALP know ‘Something’ aside from the already known ridiculous comments of the Rabbott.
    Hence, the Rabbott’s pre-emptive strike on ‘smear’ campaign message.
    Could be wrong. Gut says otherwise. Hope it’s not a bad case of wishful thinking. 😉

  39. [Shadow finance minister Andrew Robb said yesterday the Coalition had ”submitted a large body of work to our independent accounting group” a week ago, and was still waiting to hear back.]

    Labor need to do the same: submit coalition’s spending commitments, and idenfitied ‘savings’ for independent analysis. Media commentators and blogs are already identifying aspects which don’t add up, especially in the area of health, and their commitment to extend cheap pharmaceuticals to seniors. I’d anticipate that further expert analysis would reinforce this, giving Labor more ammunition to attack Tone on his economic credentials.

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