Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in Lindsay; 50-50 in Dawson

The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.

For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.

UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.

UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,110 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in Lindsay; 50-50 in Dawson”

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  1. [I am merely pointing out that Rudd is a backbencher and is not part of the “Government” ]
    Peter, you are wrong. The entirety of the Labor party members in parliament form the government. The executive is a subgroup of that group.

  2. So Abbott has set the mark.

    if he gets into govt every single project he undertakes has to be better than 97.3% successful.

    Write that to the letters page and see if it gets a run.

  3. @BB 69 …

    Absolutely agree. Nobody expects much from the commercial media, but the behaviour of the ABC (e.g. in relation to the BER) is beyond simple bias – it is corrupt and possibly even criminal.

    What I can’t understand is that the ABC still has a few decent journalists. Even if the editorial staff is completely under the thumb (or in the pocket) of outside interests, surely the journalists themselves could sneak the truth into some of their reports occasionally?

    Otherwise, I agree with you completely – purge the lot and let’s start afresh.

    @castle 75 …

    Please! I was feeling a little more optimistic when I woke up this morning. Now I’m depressed all over again.

    That nutter Abbott with control of both houses? NOOOOO!!!!!

    I imagine the scenario you describe is exactly how WorkChoices will be revived (under another name, of course). Why isn’t the Labor party putting this very plausible scenario out there? It would sober up a few swinging voters faster than anything else they could possibly say.

    I think I’ll go back to bed.

  4. [TONY Abbott will meet the president of Nauru today to demonstrate the Coalition’s resolve to reinstate the ”Pacific solution”.

    The Opposition Leader will have talks with President Marcus Stephen in Brisbane, where he will be joined by his deputy, Julie Bishop, and immigration spokesman Scott Morrison.]

    Another stunt. Nauru have already said they would re-open the facility if Australia asked it to. Bishop and Morrison have already met with Nauru government reps to discuss and confirm this. This is simply a photo opportunity to show Abbott looking ‘prime ministerial’.

    Abbott has no long term plan for this country, other than to simply return to Howardia. Has a federal government ever been elected to office from opposition having expressed no vision for the nation?

  5. There are some states here the publication of opinon Polls are banned in the two weeks leading up to the election. There is some merit in this idea.

  6. [Sunday night’s Newspoll is going to determine a lot]

    glorysequence – you may have missed my comment on the previous thread.

    I was asking where you think Labour mat win five or six seats in states other than NSW and QLD, as you suggested could happen.

  7. A ray of light from Hugh Mackay:

    Media coverage of the opinion polls is also puzzling. Journalists work themselves into a lather over weekly bounces in the polls, apparently oblivious to history. Polls taken just before campaigns begin usually point to the result; mid-campaign fluctuations track little more than day-to-day responses to the torrent of media coverage.

    Mackay is very low key, but I can’t remember an election he didn’t call right, ever. If he says Labor’s still in with a chance, based on the pre-campaign polls, then that’s good news.

    The rest of the article is a good read, too, discussing his despair that focus group polling (of which he was a local pioneer) has run off the rails and is now subject to great inaccuracy.

  8. Confessions at 66:

    [ Teh Greens came in at 14%. ]

    Yeah, that was the last thread.

    I came across that at the servo just now, on the front page. Apparently, this now means the Greens are the ‘kingmakers’. C’mon, I know reporting on the aftermath of the state election was fun and all, but the Greens aren’t going to do anything more fun than come third and have their voters mostly favour Labor. It’s not like they’re going to win Fremantle (the federal version) or anything.

  9. [The Coalition know that the ALP know ‘Something’ aside from the already known ridiculous comments of the Rabbott]

    Dee – do you have anything at all other than a gut feeling?

  10. Darn at 100:

    These pairs of characters, without the space in between:

    [ : )
    ; )
    : D
    : P ]

    give the following:

    [ 🙂 😉 😀 😛 ]

    So there you go.

  11. [fredn
    Posted Saturday, August 7, 2010 at 9:40 am | Permalink
    I know I know, it’s the Australian,but it is worth a read.]
    No thanks.

  12. Another stunt. Nauru have already said they would re-open the facility if Australia asked it to. Bishop and Morrison have already met with Nauru government reps to discuss and confirm this. This is simply a photo opportunity to show Abbott looking ‘prime ministerial’.

    I always get an “icky” feeling when I read about this. There’s something vaguely disloyal about an Opposition meeting with foreign governments, especially tinpot governments, to carve up the post-election political scene. With a population of 11,000 and being smaller than Homebush Bay in Sydney, it’s roughly the equivalent of an Australian suburb, except 80% of it is decrepit guano pits, useless for anything except starting at and saying to yourself, “How in the hell did we do this to ourselves?”

  13. Ron @ 45
    So who has said child p0rn smut should be legal? of course it is not and it should be illegal. The money wasted on this useless filter should be given to the Fed Police so they can catch these blights on humanity. I want them caught, their b@lls cut off and then lock them up until they die.

    I take great offense at you alleging people who oppose the filter are into such stuff. It is a low scumbag way of defending your argument. It is just what the coalition is doing to labor. I don’t came here to be called what you did. (i cant even type it, it is so offensive) I think you should be red-carded for that kind of behaviour. All I did was give information, I didn’t deserve to be maligned and insulted.

  14. Bushfire bill’s long post this morning: the best i’ve read in a long time. Bob Ellis would be proud of it. I totally agree, the opposition should be skewered, along with their media toadies.

  15. What I mean by the next national Newspoll being significant is that if it stays ate 50-50 or better than that’s solid news for Labor. If they slip behind, it gets very hard to claw back. a 51-49 lead would buoy the troops.

  16. [TONY Abbott will meet the president of Nauru today to demonstrate the Coalition’s resolve to reinstate the ”Pacific solution”.]

    That seems odd given the Coalition’s written down, gospel truth border protection policy. According to the Restoring Sovereignty and Control to our Borders Policy Directions Statement:

    [Any discussion of third country processing locations can only be held between Governments, as occurred when the Coalition last introduced these types of measures…

    The Coalition will therefore not identify potential locations for such facilities in Opposition, so as not to prejudice such discussions in government. Such discussions from Opposition would also compromise the integrity of other national governments who must rightly deal with the Government of the day.]

    It seems we can’t even believe Tony’s written down policy statements. If you can’t tell the truth about anything how can you run the country?

  17. [At the end of the day the punters will vote with their hip pocket and the economy is all the matters. If they keep focused on this message relentlessly they will be returned.]

    Agree with this to some extent, but the government lost their chance to spruik their economic achievements some time ago by letting the opposition saturate the airwaves with negative messages.

    People don’t seem to want to vote for the government and don’t really want to vote for Abbott either, but seem to be favouring him slightly because he’s different.

    My feeling is that the only chance of retaining government at this point is to go completely negative on Abbott and make people afraid to vote for him.

    There’s almost no chance of convincing people that the current government was good.

  18. AAP are reporting

    [The poll of 1369 people, taken between Tuesday and Thursday, shows the gender gap has reappeared with Labor leading 54-46 among women, but trailing 45-55 among men.]

    Wow men are stooopid.

  19. So the LNP spendathon will not all be costed.

    How will they pay for it then.

    Increase the GST from 10% to 15% of course without telling the public before the election.

    If Abbott can spread lies and not be held accountable then i see no reason why i can not walk round my electorate asking everyone if they are going to be happy for Tony Abbort to increase the GST to 15% to pay for his promises.

  20. Nobody seems to want to apply the blow torch to Abbort, even when the worlds best hammock dweller full on bags him out. Especially when he keeps screaming out GBNT on everything.

    [First to Abbott. He proposes a government payment to new mothers who leave the workforce of six months’ salary on full pay up to $75,000. It is billed as the most generous state scheme in the world after Sweden – which in itself should have set the alarm bells ringing. For Liberals, that alarm should have sounded like an air-raid siren once Bob Brown and the Greens lauded the scheme.

    Advertisement: Story continues belowCompanies that already operate maternity schemes will close them and encourage employees to go on the government entitlement. And why shouldn’t they? Otherwise they would pay twice – directly to their own employees and indirectly through increased taxes. So private benefits will be socialised, spending will rise and taxes will increase.

    I have been to a lot of Liberal Party meetings in my life and I can honestly say I have never heard a speech in favour of higher tax. Sure, I have heard speeches in favour of replacing inefficient taxes with simpler ones (and indeed given a few of those myself) and I have heard people argue for better tax compliance as a way of reducing taxes for honest and enterprising folk. But the idea of increasing tax would be as foreign to the Liberal Party as voluntary unionism at the local ALP branch.]

  21. This is quite funny but not a good look for Labor. It reinforces the perception that they are desperate.

    [A DISPUTE over a $500,000 union donation to the ALP is headed for the Federal Court next week in a blow to Labor’s efforts to place the election focus on Tony Abbott.

    The Communications, Electrical and Plumbing Union handed over the money yesterday after a personal plea from ALP secretary Karl Bitar for more cash to boost the party’s faltering election campaign.

    Mr Bitar urged the CEPU to hand over the money, saying Labor was behind in the polls while the Coalition was reaping last-minute cashflow from tobacco companies and the mining industry.

    But the donation is being challenged by renegade unionist Dean Mighell, who leads the union’s electrical sub-branch.]

  22. Gaffhook

    Abbott must have a secret tax increase up his sleeve to pay for his promises, how else can he return the budget to surplus?

  23. Peter Hartcher nails it.

    [In just six weeks, Labor has three times signalled to the electorate that it considers itself unworthy to govern. First it confessed it was unworthy to ask for a second term under the leadership of Rudd; then its new leader implicitly declared herself unworthy by declaring the advent of a “new Julia”; and now she has again admitted inadequacy by bringing Rudd back to the front and centre of the Labor campaign, his head still bleeding and tucked under his arm.

    And every major policy move in between has been immediately exposed as a fake fix – a mining tax solution that bought off only three companies out of hundreds, a regional boat-people processing centre in East Timor that was news to East Timor, and a climate change non-policy that is to be written by 150 random citizens. If Rudd had been a problem, Gillard was evidently not the solution.]

  24. ru

    I seem to remember (not sure though) that it was you who was quite confident that Leichhardt would be retained.

    An earlier poster this morning said wtte the Labour candidate wasn’t up to it and the seat would almost certainly fall.

    Can you shed any light please?

  25. @Dio/126,

    People are fools, to think that Abbott will last more than 1 term, if they think Rudd/Gillard is boring/fake.

    If Abbott is elected, then he be the same thing.

  26. [I doubt Mighell has any say in CEPU funding decisions.]

    I think his argument is that the CEPU national body can’t send funds his sub-branch has contributed to without the sub-branch agreeing. The legal merits aren’t interesting; the plea for money from a union by Bitar is the problem.

  27. GG

    No I’m still supporting Labor but that doesn’t mean I don’t agree with everything Hartcher said. Remember Dumb and Dumber. I’m backing Dumb.

  28. I don’t think talk of a GST rise is going to cut any ice with the voters. A better approach is to hammer the point that Abbott has not demonstrated how he can pay for his promises – especially without the $10.5 billion from mining – and that this will push up interest rates.

    That has a much better chance of cutting through.

  29. Poor Diddums meeja ddon’t like vision pooling:


    @latikambourke I’d like to see media refuse to run any photos or footage of JG-KR.This is bordering on censorship. #ausvotes #democracyfail 1 minute ago via web in reply to latikambourke Retweeted by MichaelByrnes

  30. Diogs,

    Hartcher missed the point that this election is regionalised to extremes. So, making broad brush statements like he does is nonsense.

    Gillard is clearly very popular in Vic, Tas and SA. She’s staunched the blood flow in WA and to a lesser degree in NSW. Qld and NT remain a problem but we’ve got new Kev Degalled doing his “Apres moi, la deluge” act to keep us warm at night.

  31. Diogs,

    And, you bitch about the quality of pollies. Insanity is doing the same thingt and expecting the result too be different.

  32. [Agree with this to some extent, but the government lost their chance to spruik their economic achievements some time ago by letting the opposition saturate the airwaves with negative messages.]

    PVO and the Libs keep spruking this line – it is a bad govt which is complete bunkum. The major event which dominated Rudds term was the GFC on that he achieved an A+ – that does not make a bad govt in any way shape of form. At every opportunity over the next two weeks Rudd will be hammering home this message that Labor saved Aust from the GFC and will do so in the future. people are fearful of losing their jobs. Abbott will not save their jobs and he will cut their benefits. It is that fear that will be reinforced. Tony is bored by economics. It is not the Economy stupid It is the economy Tony.

  33. Nice catch, Alan Shore @ 115

    And great post BB @ 69

    One thing I have always despaired and despised about Labor is how incompetent and gutless they usually are at confronting the lies told about them by the opposition and media, when Labor have very solid evidence to beat them to death with, the BER just being one example. Labor just let them set the agenda and frame the argument. Again and again and again… Pathetic.

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