The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.
For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.
UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.
UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.
Mick is fine except he can’t count. Just like Andrew Robb. 😛
maybe the voters in Cook can send Mr Morrison on a holiday to Naru
my say@2787
Forget the Friends of the ABC– They are more worried about having smug Afternoon teas and worrying about funding than to addrerss the systemic bias.
I am not going to renew my mmembership of the WA Branch over this very issue.
BrizOz
[Church Leaders shouldn’t be able to say or do anything, especially since they have no control over pedos and groups like ACL.]
I know, you’d really be happier with a Boshevik state, so much easier to simply ‘send ’em off to Siberia’ when you can’t stop the Church criticising government… Still with the Greens, there is a slim chance you could have your wish mate!
Unfortunately, this is Australia, we have a democracy and George Pell has as much right to talk about this as Peter Singer does to get on Q&A and suggest a new meaning for ‘puppy love’. Whatever makes you puke mate, whatever makes you puke!
I’d ship the Union bastards off to Siberia if I could but have to listen to their bull butter about saving jobs & protecting the rights of workers. Still they have a right to use union member’s money on expensive TV ads to tell us so, it is a democracy.
Despite the fact the I completely disagree with you Mick.
To Speak of Pebbles
[Church leaders should be able to comment on issues but should stay away from endorsing/condemning political parties]
Next Sundays Masses throughout the length and breadth of this fair land, will tell a story. If Pell sends out a letter to every Parish priest to be read at every Mass Sat night/Sun giving support to the Coalition, he will be throwing the considerable weight of the Catholic Church behind Abbott. He is the supreme commander and if he says read it, then it will be read. Given the Abbott/Pell friendship (yuk) I am expecting something. He has done it before. I well recall having an animated discussion with my parish priest over Pells dictatorial decrees, falling outside his brief as pastoral adviser to the flock. my guy is a good bloke, was I should say he was transferred, and while sort of agreeing with me, said he had to obey the ‘BOSS”. While such a supportive nod will fall on a percentage of deaf ears, there will be an impact. While Pell is not generally liked by the rank and file catholic he is still a Cardinal, a senior one in the eyes of Rome and a mate of the German pontiff. A person of authority.
Be interested to get other catholics angle on this, personally I regard Pell as a prik, a very useless one. I also believe in karma.
ruawake 2775
Confirms what I’m saying – the media are shifting. Gyngall has spoken.
Friends of The ABC will get a nasty shock if PM Abbott slashes funding by 20% and won’t those conservative loving journalists be up in arms. That’s when they might look at themselves in the mirror and say “What the f$%k have we done?”
RU
[Mick is fine except he can’t count. Just like Andrew Robb.]
Ha ha .. funny :).. that is three, no four…no hang on, five times, you’ve said that to me (if my arithmetic is correct!)
Friends of the ABC? I’d be surprised if the ABC had any friends left, apart from Ltep, Diog, ShowsOn and the Coalition.
[Unfortunately, this is Australia, we have a democracy and George Pell has as much right to talk about this as Peter Singer does to get on Q&A]
ok given Mr Pell has decided to subject himself to our democracy and therefore the laws of the land I take it his institution will now agree to obey by those same laws when investigating cases of abuse?
RU
BTW, what is this ‘Mick is fine’ crap????!
I am a troll dammit! ..and don’t you forget that!!! 😉
And this re Oakes:
[Ha ha .. funny .. that is three, no four…no hang on, five times, you’ve said that to me (if my arithmetic is correct!)]
Its not my fault you cannot count. 😛
David,
Pell has said nothing about the coalition or Labor. So you’re jumping at shadows and getting one and 1 to equal a pineapple.
Chill out, there are plenty of Catholics influential within the ALP.
[ They all asked about policy ]
All to late, the media like to claim this has been the most vacuous campaign in memory when they have behaved like they were writing one long copy of woman’s day.
And the greens, well they can be content in the knowledge that it’s the end of *any* climate change action for a long time, and more likely an expansion of emission intensive activities.
I wondered who paid for the Nauru foreign minister and prime minister to come here?
Latham IS full of bile, he probably has enough bitterness in his black heart to undermine his former allies, he would see nothing better than Abbott crowned as PM after the ALP were seeminginly invincible all term.
Which is fine by me and fine by the rest of mainstream Australia… can’t complain about the end result!
Off to bed.
Newspoll 52-48 when I wake up from pleasant dreams. 🙂
Geoff Hutchison ABC Mornings:
My reply:
[ pm | Permalink
Pell has every right to comment on policy but he has overstepped the mark when he attacks a political party.
Mr Abbott do you agree with Cardinal Pell’s comments about the Greens? Bet the question is never asked.
(I can dish it out on the Greens better than most, but this is crap).
2718]
what was it and have u emailed it to Christine Milne she is the best one to send it to
M Wilkinson @ 2793,
when you try to be all things to all people, which means trying to cover the centre, this is what happens! but without trying to cover the centre, you risk alienating at least 68% of the population (look at the bell surve, which would probably be skewed towards the right anyway).
so they move to cover that group. however, not only does the labor party risk splitting itself, it may cause ‘left’ supporters in the party to find solace with the greens!
Frank,
I suppose if someone shot him, it would only make him ornery.
Grog:
http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com/2010/08/election-2010-day-22-or-yes-this-is.html
TODAY is mary mckillops birthday if she was still here that is
so forgive me if i leave a pray over on her site for the polls
night all
Also where is the Abbott quote re the term “guided democracy” from? Thanks
@Mick Wilkinson/2804,
criticizing the Government is one thing, criticizing a party is entirely different, especially if there lack of of criticism on the Opposition side 🙂
Pebbles
[I wonder if the Gen Yers will have an effect on this election. Normally they seem not to give a rat’s ass but this time I have seen so many comments from people who normally are completely apathetic about politics along the lines of “I hope Tony Abbott doesn’t win! He’s scary!”]
Most definitely. It was the Gen Y vote that lifted Kevvie easily. Actually the Xers have very little influence on politics in general in Australia.
73% of voters are either Gen Y or Boomer at present and also tend to have more variability about how they vote (many boomers were lefter when young and can be swayed back that way..). Gen Y understand colour. They like Green, it is also easier to spell than Labor (with that tricky intentional spelling mistake) or Liberal, which just has too many letters.
Yep, we get the government that these demographics choose for us… The Gen Xers do their part and finance all the promises with our tax, so it all works out well! 🙂
Oh, and Oscar, just to let you know (others will be sick of hearing this).. I have no team, I have no party, I am just that pain in the arse to everyone 😉
David
[If Pell sends out a letter to every Parish priest to be read at every Mass Sat night/Sun giving support to the Coalition, he will be throwing the considerable weight of the Catholic Church behind Abbott…I well recall having an animated discussion with my parish priest over Pells dictatorial decrees, falling outside his brief as pastoral adviser to the flock. my guy is a good bloke, was I should say he was transferred]
I would be incredbly amazed if Pell did that. Your parish priest…it wasn’t Brian was it?
[ I wondered who paid for the Nauru foreign minister and prime minister to come here?
]
Coca-Cola.
Perahelion
Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 5:33 pm | Permalink
[I see someone said earlier that Rudd was mobbed today by people wanting photos. Maybe they wanted pictures of a dinosaur.
But seriously one thing I remember vividly from the election when Keating was heavily dumped was seeing him being mobbed by schoolgirls on TV and in the paper, an omen to be wary of I would have thought.]
Me thinks you got the wrong election – Keating was mobbed during the election campaign which ended in ‘the sweetest victory of all’.
[Also where is the Abbott quote re the term “guided democracy” from? Thanks]
When I last checked they were here:
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/the-leaders/abbott-leans-to-guided-democracy-20100807-11p6y.html
http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=496079&articleID=
None on their ABC that I can see.
Pebble
[I wonder if the Gen Yers will have an effect on this election. Normally they seem not to give a rat’s ass but this time I have seen so many comments from people who normally are completely apathetic about politics along the lines of “I hope Tony Abbott doesn’t win! He’s scary!”]
My 20-something nephew said “Abbott gave him the heebie-jeebies”.
Not sure if he used that in deference to my antiquity or whether it is now fashionable amongst the young 😉
my say @ 2796,
ah, the ever elusive 18 – 30 demographic! so difficult to pin down.
questions re the economy aren’t the important ones, and they’re more or less filler questions!
market researchers can usually tell from the the voice as to how old the respondent is.
Question some journo won’t ask:
[at national press club – in a grave voice – with a serious face]
MR Abbott, former prime minister Bob Hawke famously said that if he became prime minister he would give up drinking. Can you give the Australian public an assurance that you will give up drinking should you become prime minister on august 21.
2783
Mick quinvalin
[no….. it was a comment………. the connatation is these elections are not needed I know best………]
It certainly reads more like if we could have a guided democracy i would sure put these photographers in line.
[Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has told Nauru’s President Marcus Stephen that Australia could use a more “guided democracy”.
Mr Abbott was overheard making the comment when a pack of media photographers disrupted their meeting in Brisbane on Saturday afternoon.
“Sometimes I think we need a guided democracy,” Mr Abbott joked as they wrapped up discussions, noting that the media in some other countries were “much less disruptive than they are here”.]
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbott-leans-to-guided-democracy-20100807-11oyh.html
At the same time talking to a foreign government in direct contrast to the LNP policy.
@hairy nose 2826,
Re: “guided democracy”
http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=496079&articleID=
I truly hope someone can find some actual audio. Anyone?
In relation to Pakistan:
[Ahmed: Well, there is no such thing as a guided democracy, or a tailor-made democracy. You either have democracy or you don’t.]
http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/stories/s697487.htm
Again in relation to Pakistan:
[… It’s a world which seems happy to at least begrudgingly accept President Musharraf’s brand of guided democracy.]
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/stories/s698608.htm
Grog’s writings during the campaign have been of outstanding depth and quality.
Is guided democracy when you close the voter lists too quickly so as to prevent people voting.
Greensborough Growler
[David,
Pell has said nothing about the coalition or Labor. So you’re jumping at shadows and getting one and 1 to equal a pineapple.]
I was talking about next weekend the one before the election, remember? it is well known Pell and Abbott are very close and as I indicated, Pell has form in these matters.remember Abbott telling porkies about his meeting with Pell. Why? Not keen to have it known just how friendly they are perhaps?. I do not share your cosy acceptance of Pells non interest in having Abbott as PM. I take it you are in a position to know Pells inner thoughts, well lucky you.
I prefer to judge him as he is, not what I want him to be. I will front up next Sunday, listen and let you know.
@Mick Wilkinson 2828
[Oh, and Oscar, just to let you know (others will be sick of hearing this).. I have no team, I have no party, I am just that pain in the arse to everyone ;)]
Aha! I knew we’d find something to agree on eventually 🙂
IF there is a climate change amongst the MSM as a result of Latham’s bullying, Julia will wipe the floor with Abbott. The newspoll is too early to pick up on this but it will happen. She is looking like a battle hardened fighter. Abbott is looking like a coward. The tough guy image is a sham. He is a sham. The Liberals campaign is a mirage – and the MSM know it. Thus far they have acted under the delusion that policy doesn’t matter – any policy will do, the substance is immaterial. Michelle Grattan has been shockingly bad on this front. Now is the time for these so-called Senior Journalists to show that they earn their money. We need insight, scrutiny and fairness. Both sides should be examined equally. Julia has shown that she has the goods – Abbott, so far, has just run away.
That’s nobbled democracy.
BB,
Quibbling. Words mean what they want them to.
Nice ads for labor during “talikin about my generation”
Abbott:
[“It means that this is no longer a Liberal Chinese community dinner, this is a dinner which is going to storm the country.”]
Interesting choice of words. Storm the country? WTF?
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/howard-joins-abbott-on-trail-20100805-11knx.html
and if howies was the dessicated coconut is abbott the overcooked lamington?
[Michelle Grattan has been shockingly bad on this front.]
Absolutely. these people write as if in the third person ie the campaign has become a cricus with no scrutiny of the candidates. Well guess what Michelle it is you who should be doing the scrutiny, that is your role. The appointment of Latham as a journalist actually sums up the quality of the journalists ie any old monkey can do their jobs because all they are is d grade entertainers.
BK @ 2839
Grog’s writing.
Its been comprehensive, witty, compulsive reading. He sounded a mite angry tonight. Can’t say I blame him.