The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.
For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.
UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.
UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.
Church Leaders shouldn’t be able to say or do anything, especially since they have no control over pedos and groups like ACL.
Well, first off, it’s not them who are doing the wrong thing. It’s always the other guy, like the tabloid Channel 9, who seem to have produced a revival of The Norman Gunston show (no wonder Oakes is mad).
I’d like to think that they’re suffering buyer’s remorse over backing Abbott over Julia’s phoney Reality TV “ordeals”. But they’re too dumb to experience that rather sophisticated emotion.
My guess is there’ll be a plethora of “senior” media garment rending and gnashing of teeth at the dumbing down of the campaign, and then the next question will be about Julia wearing pearls, or whether she waxes her legs. Maybe even whether Kevin has a pierced nipple. Who knows what profundities they’ll come up with next?
This is the first Reality TV election. Where all the ordeals are phoney and completely safe, where the suspense is confected, where the audience is swindled into voting for the guy with the nice voice or the best suit, or the girl who tells the judges off when they tell her she’ll never be Maria, and where the winner never intends to actually live in the Simpson Desert forever, after taking away the first prize.
I have no problem with Pell making those comments. The separation of church and state doesn’t mean the church can’t make comments about politics.
I do however think Pell is a revolting human being.
Frank, Apart from people here I don’t know anyone who has actually watched that station.
Diog
Yes! Perfect summary.
[You’ll be fine Pebbles. It seriously will not be that bad and will give Labor some time to really focus on a new direction and sense of purpose. They could and should block any piece of legislation that is against what they believe is in the country’s best interests and put this to the people.]
That’s what they said about Bush in 2000. That it would serve the Democrats well to sit in the wilderness, that Bush can’t do that much harm because he’s an idiot, that he would only last one term blah blah. Eight years later, the US is in a horrible situation. Finally the Democrats get back into power but because Obama isn’t following the laundry list of the sock sniffers over there. There’s already sentiment that the Democrats need to sit in the corner again.
I don’t want to see that BS here.
[You’ll be fine Pebbles. It seriously will not be that bad and will give Labor some time to really focus on a new direction and sense of purpose. They could and should block any piece of legislation that is against what they believe is in the country’s best interests and put this to the people]
Hey come on Pebbles, now you’ve got the resident pessimist giving you advice.
I haven’t heard the fat lady sing yet. Perhaps some of you have better hearing than me…
At least take a look at the Newspoll and give Rudd and Gillard a chance to fight a rear guard action before you slit your wrists.
@Mick Wilkinson 2707
Ok, so you admit defeat on one argument, and now want to start another one?
*sigh*
Tampa. Children Overboard. Pacific Solution. “We’ll turn back the boats (if we ever find a situation where it is safe to do so)”. etc, etc.
Tell you what – when Nauru signs the UN refugee convention, I’ll accept that we might consider talking to them. Until then, take your divisive, illegal, racist and fear-mongering claptrap and shove it where the sun don’t shine.
Oh, and isn’t it in contravention of your own party policies to negotiate with a foriegn government while in opposition?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/no-obstacles-to-reopening-nauru-says-coalition-after-meeting-nations-foreign-minister/story-fn59niix-1225897375853
In case you can’t find that policy (was it removed from your website?) – here is the relevant part:
[The Coalition will therefore not identify potential locations for such facilities in Opposition, so as not to prejudice such discussions in government. Such discussions from Opposition would also compromise the integrity of other national governments who must rightly deal with the Government of the day.]
SNIP: Abuse deleted – The Management.
jenauthor @ 2745,
not to mention that the most difficult demographic group to poll is the 18-30 cohort.
furthermore, being election time, there is a particular bias due to the fact that some people actually more inclined to elucidate their voting intentions, when they wouldn’t do so under normal circumstances. and this would be the 50+ demographic.
I was talking about my physical reaction to seeing Abbott on TV and the fact that if he wins he’ll be on tv gloating all the time with a smug smirk. My veins will burst!
[The Rabbott’s refusal to answer questions at pressers with the power to walk away unchallenged should ring alarm bells when you think about his unguarded remark about a ‘Guided Democracy’.]
He’s just conforming to the maxim “when the going gets tough, the tough get going” Dee. In his case scurrying out the back of the press conference
Required reading. The Drum. Bob Ellis. ‘Rudd’s return, the final countdown.’
[Mmmmm…..Wonder what is prompting a few journos to question the quality of coverage of the election????]
It has become too blatant and people are noticing.
Bruce Hawker from Hawker-Britton cam close to accusing the press of just being interested in soap operas and not scrutinising the policies of wither side. David Speers asked “Are you saying the press isn’t doing it’s job” or wtte.
After Latham being made ‘a journalist’ without the cred, I reckon the press might just be getting a bit defensive. Straws and camel’s backs, so to speak. Latham discredited them by default.
[that he would only last one term]
No I definitely wouldn’t say this. Abbott will have 2 terms minimum bar any major stuff ups. It might end up a Whitlam-Fraser-Hawke type deal though where a bad defeat puts in a Liberal Government who ends up disappointing and puts in a Labor Government with a real since of purpose and drive for a substantial period of time.
I wonder if the Gen Yers will have an effect on this election. Normally they seem not to give a rat’s ass but this time I have seen so many comments from people who normally are completely apathetic about politics along the lines of “I hope Tony Abbott doesn’t win! He’s scary!”
TSOP
[I was talking about my physical reaction to seeing Abbott on TV and the fact that if he wins he’ll be on tv gloating all the time with a smug smirk. My veins will burst!]
Speaking from bitter experience through the Howard years, esp the last 8, I found that screaming in the bathroom for an hour or two a day really helped. Either that or sell your TV, pull the plug on the radio, cancel the papers and chuck the computer. There are plenty of good CDs and books to fill the void.
Guided democracy????
darn @ 2757,
I haven’t heard the fat lady sing yet. Perhaps some of you have better hearing than me…
isn’t amanda vanstone in italy? no wonder you can’t hear her!
[Speaking from bitter experience through the Howard years, esp the last 8, I found that screaming in the bathroom for an hour or two a day really helped. Either that or sell your TV, pull the plug on the radio, cancel the papers and chuck the computer.]
Strewth Diog, I thought I had it bad!
“[Guided democracy”. Conjures up images of Marcos, Lee and Suharto.]
didi any one put this on face book and would the young ones understand what it means
You missed that Abbott brain snap Mick Quinlivan?
hairy nose@2761
Someone should grab all the footage of Abbott leaving pressers and putting it to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kx2Y_a_yGyY
has anyone considered this scenario…… Either side wins by say one seat….. then there is a byelection for a marginal seat
ruawake #2687
[What!!!! Pell should be condemned for this act of bastardry. Hey Pell at least the Greens don’t fiddle with other peoples bits.]
Wow, are you somehow suggesting that NO Greens voters/members interfere with children! Quick, ring Argos! What a simple solution! Just make sure pedophiles are voting Green!! 😉
I noticed a very different media today at Julia’s presser in Darwin. They all asked about policy (except the dill who asked if it was good to be asked about policy not Rudd).
What will Abbott do tomorrow when he is asked about policy?
Anyone noticed Abbott’s resemblance to Putin? In a sort of yuk surely that won’t get any votes way. Mind you with talk of “guided democracy” maybe its not that farfetched.
TSOP @ 2756
I made a similar comparison during an interchange with Michael Wilbur-Ham yesterday, after he decreed that Labor was now an “evil” party and no different than Coalition.
I pointed out that Ralph Nader’s campaign declared a curse on both Dems and Repubs, so Nader was instrumental in the election of a warmongering environmental vandal rather than a future Nobel-winning crusader for urgent action against climate change.
No reply to this from MWH was forthcoming.
[So becasue essential is done in a different way does that make it less reliable
Not necessarily – the Essential Media results from the YourSource online panel seem to show an apparent difference ]
well why are we not cheered by their poll
Mick
You are a wonderful addition to this blog. Thankyou for your constructive contributions.
TSOP
[What am I going to do if he wins? It is going to kill me.]
Take a deep breath & do something else other than watch politics for awhile.
If it is meant to be then so be it. We won’t like it but hey, we have been here before.
Radguy
So you is upset i do door knocking over W/C where i got an actual family neg effect of it you empty vessel Obvious you got no young children working under w/c
You is like Greens , happy to sit in th grandstand (of Senate) and whinge about everyone else , and doing it so self rightously
Not evryone anyone is comfortable doing it and/or got time can do it , but criticising those that do is a sad sod
diogenes @ 2766,
upon howard coming to power in ’96, then finding an $8 billion dollar deficit, and then slashing anything and everything that was associated with labor and it’s traditional constituency, there was a lot of shouting, but it didn’t amount to much because he remained in power for 11 LONG years!!!
no….. it was a comment………. the connatation is these elections are not needed I know best………
I would have thought “giuided democracy” would be open to interpretation along the lines that Abbott wants to takeaway your right to vote.
I thought only anti religious zealots on PB believed that.
Well it’s off to watch 60 minutes, I want to see and hear that great new journalist they’ve got.
[Speaking from bitter experience through the Howard years, esp the last 8, I found that screaming in the bathroom for an hour or two a day really helped. Either that or sell your TV, pull the plug on the radio, cancel the papers and chuck the computer. There are plenty of good CDs and books to fill the void.]
Maybe I’ll live in my own bubble and, like you said, just entertain myself with books and CDs and other non-journalist media.
Unfortunately my curiousity is too strong. I will just die a little on the inside, watch the country go to crap and try and fail to get Wayne Swan (or whoever the OL is) elected PM…
Of course, that’s only IF he wins. I still think Gillard will win.
[Dee
Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 6:41 pm | Permalink
Independently Thinking
Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 6:08 pm | Permalink
Dedalus
I would like to complain in the strongest possible terms..]
freinds of the abc when julias elected should get up a petition some one could help with a site is it possible to have on line petions.
“Dear Mr Dedalus
Thank you for
Mick are you talking a rerun of when Goss lost the Queensland election by one seat? The Tories have never sniffed ministerial leather since.
[What will Abbott do tomorrow when he is asked about policy?]
Talk about Rudd?
Yeah Mick, we are going to keep the country safe from the likes of you!
Sorry wrong Ron
Perahelion, Latham’s on next week. This Sunday wouldn’t get him enough attention 😉
Holy Cow
I very much respect your reply, thanks:
[it’s a calculated risk that demonstrates expediency. but she’s a politician seeking re-election so such actions shouldn’t be viewed as surprising, just disappointing.]
Thanks for being honest. As stated elsewhere, I think both of them lack compassion on this front, there are much better solutions that would work, but the easiest mantra is ‘stop the boats’.
Unfortunately, there is too much of the Greens policy that simply makes me sick to swing it on that issue. It is disappointing, though understandable of Julia to do this. her ambition for the top job justifies her pragmatism in this case.
According to Wikipedia:
And re Scott Morrison:
To which I responded:
[2706 holycow1
Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 6:59 pm | Permalink
ruawake @ 2683,
a lot of the research companies do conduct online research. however, whether a lot of them conduct online polling pertaining to voting intentions is another matter entirely!]
i had a research company phone yesterday wanting opinions on the Tasmania economy what ever thats suppose to mean how would we know.
any way it had to be some in the house whose birthday was the last one held
thats me i said in to the conversation some how she worked out that i was not 18
I said well now one that age lives here now. O well then I said thats strange i doubt and 18 year old would or know what the state of tas economy is.
Mick is thoughtful.
@Perahelion 2731
[Just had dinner and I’ve come back to watch the two links mentioned on Gafhook 2593.]
Maybe this is the video you should look at (probably just as well you’ve had dinner):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjklT59clE4
It’s about Bernie Banton.
The more I see of Tony Abbott (and to be honest I try not to watch too much of him) the more disgusted I am.
Okay – I accept I’m biased – but honestly, this man should never even have been a minister, let alone Prime Minister. He’s simpy a disgrace.
Hebe, why not join my board? The Monk.
[I pointed out that Ralph Nader’s campaign declared a curse on both Dems and Repubs, so Nader was instrumental in the election of a warmongering environmental vandal rather than a future Nobel-winning crusader for urgent action against climate change. ]
Atticus, I sent this notion in an email to Milne during the ETS debate almost begging her to make this connection as I saw the possibility of an Abbott government given the media attacks on Labor. I”d like to think that she has sleepless nights now. I know I do.