The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.
For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.
UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.
UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.
Spend up the Liberal resources in Petrie or just flush them down the toilet. Same result will be gained. Petrie is in so much danger that Gambaro toddled off to try her luck in Brisbane. A case of Liberal exuberance.
I just saw on tv (as I was passing by) an Anti climate Change denier add, saying to get out side more.
Just heard Uhlmann on ABC 702 asked by the host James O’Loghlin (aka New Inventors host) whether the media were to blame for the navel gazing about Ltham, Rudd, leaks, Julia’s ear lobes etc. etc.
His answer was “Yes, they are, and it’s a becoming a big worry.” He went on to inform listeners that Oakes had given his own network a spray over it as reported here earlier on.
Then he went on to say, however, that the parties had forced them be like this because there are no detailed policies being put out by them. Then rabbited on about how Labor gutlessed out with CC as an example of wimpery. No Liberal examples given by the time I switched off.
Couldn’t stomach it any more so turned off the car radio.
Interestingly, tonight’s phone in talkback topic is the same (wtte): “Have the media wrecked the campaign with their obsession about trivia?”
Could be an interesting discussion, but given the general nihilism of nighttime ABC radio audiences (seemingly addicted to stupid quizzes called “Norman”) I wouldn’t expect a high degree of sophistication above “They’re all as bad as each other.”.
[… who has said nothing about what he will do with the power]
“Guided democracy”. Conjures up images of Marcos, Lee and Suharto.
Steve 2691
It is you who do not understand. Australia’s total government foreign debt, not just this year’s deficit, is 6% of GDP. Each stimulus was only about 2% and they have already been wound back. The total debt may not be paid back in 2012, but it will be within three years, assuming Treasury figures and trend economic growth.
This is NOT true for Abbott, who still has not explained where he will find $24 billion of “savings” which were the pure fiction of saying he will slash Labor programs, while not allowing for the corresponding reduction of government income from abolishing the mining tax. In fact, as I just said above, we don’t even know if Abbott woudl get Australia back into surplus by 2012, let alone start paying off any debt, because he hasn’t put out any figures, and hasn’t given his promises to Treasury to cost. For all we know, the deficit coudl climb under Abbott.
ruawake @ 2683,
a lot of the research companies do conduct online research. however, whether a lot of them conduct online polling pertaining to voting intentions is another matter entirely!
i recall bernard K indicating a few days ago that ‘joe public’ were just fed up with being called or being approached face-to-face to be polled. due to the sheer saturation of polling recently, i suspect that polling over the last few weeks, and certainly in the next few weeks, will be skewed to the extent that those who are answering polling questions are those who are definitely motivated to do so; that is, they are either definite liberal and or supporters! so, i think a particular demographic are answering polling questions, just not a representative sample of the ‘general sample’.
another fact that the market research company doesn’t tell you about is that the demographic most difficult to poll are the age groups 18-30, in particularly, the male demographic. they are HORRENDOUSLY difficult to poll. whereas, the older people, namely, the 55+ demographic , are by comparison, far easier to poll.
as to whether online polling methods are ‘valid’ and ‘reliable’, i’m reasonably certain that they are because it’s simply an online version of a traditional survey. however, it would still run into the same problems with the other forms of polling; namely, young people are notoriously difficult to pin down!
ps. i’m certain that pollsters either ‘extrapolate’ the results for the younger demographic or they leave them out.
Oscar
#2610
[My point is that Abbott is gettting himself all confused over a PPL that he doesn’t believe in, and never did. Trying to pretend that “conservative instincts” = “conservative values” is just blatantly silly.]
Polish your monocle, buddy. You have just changed your tune, that’s fine, Julia does that all the time.
No one on PB has adequately explained an even greater U-turn of policy with Julia supporting off-shore detention for IIs. After years of vein-popping in parliament she has the political audacity to arrive at a Howard solution, that many on this site absolutely derided.
I know why she did. A long shallow tide of marginals in outer suburbs of Sydney and Brisbane that will bite on this one.
This audience is strangely silent, but I suggest it is because you too realise that she is just as ‘mean and tricky’ as you accused JWH of being when he dog-whistled his battlers.
I have oversized tweezers if anyone needs them for the timber in your eye….
[we were having a conversation today at lunch as to whether or not it was unconstitutional for the Opposition to be trying a broker a deal with another government]
Against diplomatic protocol? Yes. Unconstitutional? No. Well if they purported to actually enter into a deal, the deal would have no effect.
[The Greens have retaliated after the head of the Catholic Church in Australia launched a scathing attack on their party.
In an opinion piece in the Sunday Telegraph, Cardinal George Pell labelled the Greens “anti-Christian” and “sweet-camouflaged poison”.
Cardinal Pell also claims the Greens policies are expensive and will not help poor people.]
Pell, do us all a favour and SHUT UP!!
BK
Well said. How many peadophile priests have the Greens hidden in their ranks for two decades?
Re. Uhlmann, I did forget a criticism of something Liberal coming from Uhlmann. Socrates reminded me of it while I was writing my post above:
Uhlmann pointed out the Charter Of Budget Honesty mandated that by law the nation’s books be opened honestly before the election, a Howard innovation.
Uhlmann’s comment was, “So why have a Debt Reduction Taskforce to look into the state of the Budget. We already know that 100%!” Went on to say it was a stunt and that no-one in the media had pointed it out (except him, on an obscure ABC radio interview at 6.55 pm on a Sunday night… where was this criticism when he gave his policy speech wrap?)
[BK
Well said. How many peadophile priests have the Greens hidden in their ranks for two decades?]
Ask Pell, He knows!
Actually, the more I think about the Pell piece on the Greens, it might actually help them WIN votes. When you consider who votes Green, I can’t see too many conservative church goers among them. Pell’s “popularity” with youth might well help the Greens among one of their core demographics.
Pell seems to be batting for the other side.
BK and Socrates,
You guys auditioning for a totalitarian regime. This is supposed to be a democracy. Your telling people to shut up is pathetic.
[Pell seems to be batting for the other side.]
BB
Droll. Very droll.
Pell has every right to comment on policy but he has overstepped the mark when he attacks a political party.
Mr Abbott do you agree with Cardinal Pell’s comments about the Greens? Bet the question is never asked.
(I can dish it out on the Greens better than most, but this is crap).
Is Newspoll tonight or tomorrow night?
Well, perhaps not actually batting, but playing ball-boy at least.
Go play dress ups in Rome, George. You miserable piece of shit.
BB
Precisely – the debt reduction task force is a stunt. We already have sucha task force – it is called the Treasury, and it has been doing an excellent job. That is why our debt is so LOW. And we know that growth forecasts are already ahead of budget estimates, so tax revenue will be greater, and teh debt even less, than forecast.
Meanwhile, Abbott completely avoids saying what his promises will cost, or what services he will junk to pay for them. On past form, health is the no.1 candidate.
mick wilkinson @ 2707,
i suspect that you are correct in your inference, as i suspect the ‘general australia population is skewed to the right of centre, rather than to the left. and yes, that phenomena is no more apparent than the string of marginals that’s the policy was directed at.
it’s a calculated risk that demonstrates expediency. but she’s a politician seeking re-election so such actions shouldn’t be viewed as surprising, just disappointing.
[Well, perhaps not actually batting, but playing ball-boy at least.]
Even more so BB.
[Yesterday I think. It had 3000 people when I joined.]
My daughter has been on it for quite a while — couple of days ago it was 50,000 people so iy has grown 20,000 in 2 days
Which commentator said this about Abbott’s launch?
[There’s a vague promise to take up some of the neglected recommendations of the Henry tax review – lower taxes and an end to the money-go-round that traps people in poverty. No specifics though, just as there are no new promises so far at all, and nothing more uplifting than a promise to restore good, prudent government. Nothing of that “vision thing”. It’s just more of the small target strategy, inviting people to vote against Labor rather than vote for the Liberals.]
[Cuppa
Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 6:58 pm | Permalink
… who has said nothing about what he will do with the power
“Guided democracy”. Conjures up images of Marcos, Lee and Suharto.]
The Rabbott’s refusal to answer questions at pressers with the power to walk away unchallenged should ring alarm bells when you think about his unguarded remark about a ‘Guided Democracy’.
steve 2691,
debt or deficit – my point is that the figure in people’s minds is ‘6% of gdp’
That’s about 75 billion using gdp of 1.25 trillion.
That’s SMALL! if you look at it in per household terms (8 mill households)
It’s why we can be back in the black in 3 yrs and it’s NOT A PROBLEM.
Plus, gdp is on an uptrend.
This is basic stuff and is why the libs are using DOLLAR FIGURES to scare my Macarthur voters and why its NECESSARY to bring it back to % figures.
GG
[BK and Socrates,
You guys auditioning for a totalitarian regime. This is supposed to be a democracy. Your telling people to shut up is pathetic.]
I didn’t tell Pell to shut up; I jsut congratulated BK who did.
Nevertheless, this is supposed to be a Constitutional Democracy, where church and state are separate. So unless Pell wants to also start debating issues like removing tax exemptions from churches, or having persons who hid peadophiles charged with obstruction of justice, or having church exemptions from discrimination laws repealed, then yes, he can indeed shut up.
[Which commentator said this about Abbott’s launch?]
Bluey
BB
Mmmmm…..Wonder what is prompting a few journos to question the quality of coverage of the election????
Just had dinner and I’ve come back to watch the two links mentioned on Gafhook 2593.
I was hoping one of them was something to do with the Abbott-George Pell issue, I was looking forward to it, but they were trite nonsense, why was I asked to look at them?
The other thing I told the tradies was that the money “wasted” on the BER was the equivalent to a single dole payment for each of the 200,000 who would have been unemployed had it not been implemented.
The point is: better to waste a week’s dole money per person or have 200,000 unemployed for years?
Beautiful:
steve
[ Which commentator said this about Abbott’s launch?
Bluey]
Actually it was Andrew Bolt. Abbott must have been really lame (I couldn’t bring myself to watch it. I’m impressed with the dedication of those here who took one for the team and tuned in).
Socrates,
That is puerile rubbish!
Just because you don’t like what is being said or who says it doesn’t mean they have no right to an opinion.
Two thirds of Australians are allegedly religious according to the latest Census. I’m sure there are plenty of people who are interested in what a Church leader has to say. Maybe if you got over your bigotry, they might be influenced by your views too.
[I’m impressed with the dedication of those here who took one for the team and tuned in)]
Alas, I was not that brave and just deferred to the play by play commentary here. My chest hurts when I see that bastard on the TV.
What am I going to do if he wins? It is going to kill me.
Diogenes, I watched it and was amazed that he never came up with any reason to vote Liberal. It was all just a backward looking yearning for the good old days of the Rodent.
[I’m sure there are plenty of people who are interested in what a Church leader has to say.]
Agreed, but he attacked a political party with factless waffle. That is my beef with him.
Pell is a creep
dedalus @ 2727,
not to mention the invoking the fear of another land-locked electorate being invaded by more asylum seekers!
Church leaders should be able to comment on issues but should stay away from endorsing/condemning political parties.
Tom H
Concise
ru,
I had no problem with this description of the Greens. Quite mild IMHO.
You’ll be fine Pebbles. It seriously will not be that bad and will give Labor some time to really focus on a new direction and sense of purpose. They could and should block any piece of legislation that is against what they believe is in the country’s best interests and put this to the people.
[I must add that there is zero evidence that phone polls are not accurate, just a feeling that eventually they will need to be replaced by a different method.]
Actually, this might be why Possums phone poll numbers are so pro coalition — older voters tend to be more conservative, and they’re the ones more likely to still have landlines.
I don’t know many people under 25 who own a landline (unless it is to carry internet and then not many).
Possums quarterly might be more ‘likely’ to be accurate in terms of a balanced demographic spread.
My theory anyhow.
Pebbles,
Why?
GG
I admit to being biased as an atheist, nevertheless, I think it woudl be more accurate to say 2/3 of Australians are nominally religeous. When you look at how the censud form is constructed, there are a lot of people who just put down what religeon they were taught when growing up. This is not the USA; the number of religeous practitioners are much less; definitely under 50% of the population.
That being said, Pell is a Cardinal representing a particular church, not even all christians. He is supposed to speak to catholics on spiritual matters. He has no more standing on politics than he has on footy tipping. he also ahs no right to speak on behalf of all christians on anything, only catholics. So he can express his personal political bias like you or me, but if so he should sign it plain old Geoge Pell, not Cardinal.
Economic Downturn +Liberals + WorkChoices + No Economic Stimulus = Mass poverty and social upheaval.
GG
Pell is pinching my gig. 😆
And Their ABC24 are repeating Abbott’s Polcy Launch again as I type – what’s the bet the ALP‘s will be shown AFTER a 3 month old program and only cherry-picked highlights later so the various Talking Liberal Muppets to criticise it.