The opinion poll bonanza rolls on, with a Newspoll survey in The Australian focusing on the key seats of Lindsay in western Sydney and Dawson in northern Queensland, both presumed trouble spots for Labor. The Lindsay poll is everything Labor might have feared, showing the Liberals with a 51-49 lead after a 7 per cent swing. However, the Dawson result is much better news for Labor, showing an even two-party split and a swing to the Liberal National Party of 2.4 per cent. The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, before the Kevin Rudd intervention. Primary votes are 45 per cent Liberal to 41 per cent Labor in Lindsay, and 44 per cent LNP to 42 per cent Labor in Dawson. It seems we’ll have to wait for the hard copy to find out the sample size.
For those of you who have just joined us, note the previous two posts covering poll results which have emerged over the past evening.
UPDATE: Full results here. The samples turn out to be 600 per electorate, producing margins of error of 4 per cent. Both leaders’ approval ratings are evenly split between approve and disapprove in both electorates – in a poll conducted in Lindsay in the final days of Kevin Rudd’s leadership, the result was 33 per cent approve, 61 per cent disapprove. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49-34 in Dawson and 46-41 in Lindsay. Labor’s support is softer than the Coalition’s in Lindsay, but basically the same in Dawson.
UPDATE 2: Courtesy of Possum, full results from Nielsen, who are helpfully maintaining their three-poll state-by-state averages.
[BK the same here.
have you sorted out your dinner problem yet i say dont go but what does mrs bk think]
Mrs BK always gives me a lecture about not getting into potitical arguments driving there. It doesn’t seem to work though.
Channel 9 showed their true colours when having Abbott as a “guest” on Hey Hey. Even if he did get booed by the audience.
I thought they were only told the night before they are published?
I’m pretty sure they know a day in advance, I don’t know if newspoll oficially informs them or they just manage to get the results leaked somehow.
We find out here the night before they are published, you can bet the parties know the result before we do.
Will this be the election where phone pollsters change their methodology? I just asked my neice who works for Fairfax Digital how many people she knows with a “normal” phone.
She said “you, mum, dad and grandpa”. Thats it. 😯
Lynden Dunn 4 PM 🙂
BTW not sure why the Libs are running AS issue ads in Melbourne. Not going to win em many votes among us Victorians. If the Libs were smart they’d play em in Western Sydney, QLD and WA.
Bluey,
Great report. Very entertaining. Get Boerwar to pour you a fine Amontillado
[Channel 9 showed their true colours when having Abbott as a “guest” on Hey Hey. Even if he did get booed by the audience.]
Do you think 9 would have said No if JG offered to appear on that show?
[Channel 9 showed their true colours when having Abbott as a “guest” on Hey Hey. Even if he did get booed by the audience.]
That decision was taken by Darryl Somers – not Channel 9 per se.
It would have been nice for Red to have gonged the MM before he opened his gob but Red is a strong Liberal supporter.
[Mrs BK always gives me a lecture about not getting into potitical arguments driving there. It doesn’t seem to work though.]
boots on the other foot here, i try and some times i succeed so i just think we go out less these days anyway dont seem to have the need we use to what with children and grandchildren oh was mixed up for years in olyimpic atlethic judging but gave that away now seems we are home more dont mind at all really
Can’t tell either way what the Newspoll will be based on the Libs’ behaviour today. It could be good for them and therefore they’re coming out on the attack to keep the momentum, or it could be not so good so they’re coming out on the attack anyway.
There hasn’t been a shift in the Libs’ approach today, they’ve been saying the same things, so wouldn’t expect a great Labor poll.
The Magical Liopleurodon
Newspoll actually informs them formally (I’m not sure why, or if the other polls do the same).
[I’m pretty sure they know a day in advance…]
Bit tricky when newspoll are still polling on Sunday to get the hard bits of the demographics.
[ruawake
Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 6:19 pm | Permalink
Will this be the election where phone pollsters change their methodology? I just asked my neice who works for Fairfax Digital]
i found an article this week that said in 2005 telstra lost 100th land lines and since then its been 3 percent peryear
[Do you think 9 would have said No if JG offered to appear on that show?]
That’s supposing Abbott offered to appear, as opposed to was invited to appear.
Which scenario took place? I don’t know.
Whatever, guesting a major party leader weeks before an election seems not the right thing to do, even for a light comedy program. IMO.
[Whatever, guesting a major party leader weeks before an election seems not the right thing to do, even for a light comedy program. IMO.]
Utter nonsense.
[tell either way what the Newspoll will be based on the Libs’ behaviour today. It could be good for them and therefore they’re coming out on the attack to keep the momentum, or ]
does any one but us know any ones behaviour the grandchildren had the dvd on the onther one out side playing in his room the tv in the kitchen off came home oh watching the deemons now hes is a sleep in the chair so know know one may know nothing
better go now the put the tassie scallops in the curried sauce
now i have made you all jealous
boerwar’s 2600 goes into my top 10 blog list.
O AND IF ITS A GOOD NEWS POLL GIVE ME YELL I dont want to know anything tonight well ill try
[Whatever, guesting a major party leader weeks before an election seems not the right thing to do, even for a light comedy program. IMO.]
Rove last election? Women’s Weekly?
Hey Diog. How are you going to avoid seeing the rodent during the campaign?
Curried sauce is a terrible thing to inflict on a tas scallop. Like dropping a Greens candidate into O’Connor.
[Utter nonsense.]
Convincing argument there.
my say
[I meant when did that face book about tone start]
In April this year.
Suggest we log into some swinger blogs like daily tele etc and calmly and politely point out that the ‘big debt’ equates to 6% of an average persons $60k per year salary = about $2400. That’s why both parties can say they’ll pay it off in three years – because its actually a pittance. But be polite. Don’t troll, it’ll never convince anyone.
Surely Joe Hockey will cop a hiding tomorrow in his debate?
Rove: 18-24 Demographic, Hey Hey – Their Parents who were that age in the 80’s.
[
Hey Diog. How are you going to avoid seeing the rodent during the campaign?]
So far so good. I saw Abbott hug him for about 0.5 sec tonight (Ch 7 referred to Abbott as “Action Man”) but that was it.
[Rove last election? Women’s Weekly?]
Pro-Labor bias is fine.
If the tele is a swinger blog then Labor is f__ked.
my say @ 2650
[So becasue essential is done in a different way does that make it less reliable]
Not necessarily – the Essential Media results from the YourSource online panel seem to show an apparent difference of about 2% towards the ALP when compared to, for example Newspoll, or Nielsen in any one week, more in line with the Morgan F2F results, but their numbers are robust enough.
I would not say that they are ‘less reliable’ just because their results differ slightly from other pollsters.
Good to see you again Roxanna. Your thoughts on the Tasmanian seats (House and Senate)?
[Another attention seeker … pretending to be a journalist.]
This seems to describe a lot of journalists ans most commentators.
I must add that there is zero evidence that phone polls are not accurate, just a feeling that eventually they will need to be replaced by a different method.
[Red is a strong Liberal supporter.]
His miserable, tight-arsed on-screen act seems to fit the Liberal mould to a tee.
[Independently Thinking
Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 6:08 pm | Permalink
Dedalus
I would like to complain in the strongest possible terms…
“Dear Mr Dedalus
Thank you for your comments to our website.
The ABC as you know is an unbiased National broadcaster and though we receive allegations of bias from time to time, we pride ourselves on our independence from government and editorial interference.
We respect your ]
Exactly! That is why I sent my complaint to the minister.
My reply was 3 pages long.
Thankyou for your email dated 19 June 2010 to the former Prime Minister, the Hon Kevin Rudd MP, concerning the reporting of news & current affairs. Your email has been referred to the Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy as he has responsibility for broadcasting matters. The minister has asked the Department to review your email and respond on his behalf.
When I complained to the ABC they gave me this gobblygook about their charter but no real answer. I think changes to the media can only happen by weight of numbers such as a petition.
ruawake @ 2675,
do you mean ‘being out of sight’ or do you mean ‘copping a whacking’?
[The Greens have retaliated after the head of the Catholic Church in Australia launched a scathing attack on their party.
In an opinion piece in the Sunday Telegraph, Cardinal George Pell labelled the Greens “anti-Christian” and “sweet-camouflaged poison”.
Cardinal Pell also claims the Greens policies are expensive and will not help poor people.]
What!!!! Pell should be condemned for this act of bastardry. Hey Pell at least the Greens don’t fiddle with other peoples bits. 🙁
Look, just calm down everyone, Labor will win with a reduced majority, maybe 4-5 seats, but that’s it.
You’re all being fairly hysterical.
Next paragraph important.
The Media Alliance Code of Ethics (the Media Code) requires journalists to report and interpret news and current affairs honestly, not suppress relevant available facts or give distorting emphasis to facts, and do their utmost to correct errors. If the journalist of the article or news story in question is a member of the Media Alliance they are bound by the Media Code. You can find more information and a copy of the Media Code at the Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance website at http://www.alliance.org.au.
Complaints about matters covered by the Media Code may be directed to the Federal Secretary of the Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance for referral to the National Ethics Panel by email to mail@alliance.org.au
Problem is if they are not members you can’t do dicky.
Incidentally, if the internal polling IS correct it’ll be an awful result for the Senate because the LNP will likely get their 4 senators re-elected.
Dedalus at 2674
“Suggest we log into some swinger blogs like daily tele etc and calmly and politely point out that the ‘big debt’ equates to 6% of an average persons $60k per year salary = about $2400. That’s why both parties can say they’ll pay it off in three years”
This must be why you are a Labor supporter. You do not appear to understand the difference between a deficit and a debt. Neither party is promising the debt will be repayed within 3 years, they are merely promising that the budget will move from deficit to surplus. Labor’s debt will take substantially more time than 3 years to pay off.
Oh, and post the election of a Gilliard government, I reckon one of the first tasks will be cleaning out the Augian Stables, aka, the ABC. Bastards.
Dee@2689
But the Camera Crew and the producers ARE members of the MEAA.
Steve Annabelle
Shame Labor don’t have $90 billion worth of assets to sell because Costello sold them all.
Evan 14
#2589
[I’m willing to bet on Labor holding the following in QLD:
Griffith
Oxley
Capricornia
Lilley
Rankin
Blair
Moreton
Bonner
Petrie
The Liberals seriously are deluded if they think that they’ve got a chance of taking out Rudd, Swan and Emerson all in one hit.]
Evan 14, I can’t remember a time we have both largely agreed but I will in this case. The only maybe I think is Petrie.
It’s Yvette isn’t it? Yeah, I think if there is a swing on in QLD (in all the surrounding seats) then Petrie will fall.
I wish Emerson was in Wright. He is a tool and I rarely say that of MPs. Bevis is a Buffoon, Pyne is a smarmy whiner, and Bob Brown is like your serious, Eeyore-like uncle who is still suffering issues from Nam.
D’Ath is a likeable Rudd Shoulder-Vulture but won’t hold back a tide. Swannie could, Tanner could, McKew could but not D’Ath. I predict a D’Ath Maul 😉
Apology if others have already discused this, but having just seen reporting of Abbott’s campaign launch, I am stunned by the lack of detail. He is not explaining anything, so that he will then argue he has a mandate for everything once in office. These were the key points on the ABC:
[ * Tougher penalties for people smugglers
* A debt reduction taskforce to be established
* An economic statement to be released within the first month
* Murray Darling Basin plan to be released
* A tax reform plan to be released within 12 months and Henry Tax review modelling to be released within a month
* Mr Abbott would visit Afghanistan and countries within the region
* Plans for “Green Army” environmental volunteers to be finalised]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/08/2976719.htm
No explanation of how anything will be delivered, how the debt is reduced from its “dangerous” levels, what is cut… pathetic. Labor must not allow itself to be distracted from this hollow speech by anything else. Focus: what will Abbott do? how will he pay for it? why should voters risk this complete unknown, who has said nothing about what he will do with the power?
[Shame Labor don’t have $90 billion worth of assets to sell because Costello sold them all.]
Even then he managed to leave office with a gross debt of $58 billion, the budget in structural deficit, and little to show for the most massive influx of government revenues ever seen.
Mick
The Libs will win Longman before Petrie, and that just will not happen.
William or Adam (Psephos), we were having a conversation today at lunch as to whether or not it was unconstitutional for the Opposition to be trying a broker a deal with another government, i.e., the Oz Oppo and the stalemated Nauran Government?
I just emailed this to Nick Bleasdale’s Macarthur office. Why doesn’t everyone send this good idea, or another one, to their local member. Some of these local members aren’t too bright and might need some ideas.
Hi Nick,
As an alp voter I wish you success.
Here’s a simple way of explaining the ‘great big debt’ issue.
Divide the gdp ($aus1.25 trillion) and again by the number of households (8 million) and you have a ‘gdp’ of approx $150k per household.
Now, 6% of this is $9k. That’s the ‘debt’ in easy to understand, per household terms.
It’s basically a very small debt that most people would understand if expressed in those terms.
To confirm this hypothesis, contact Ross Gittins or abc’s Stephen Long, who are both alp supporters and knowledgable economists.
The punters at Penrith will understand this argument, Nick.
Best of luck, and keep the faith.