Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57.5-42.5, up from 56.5-43.5 last time. Labor are up a point to 47 per cent on the primary vote, while the Coalition are down one to 37 per cent.

It’s all happening in New South Wales:

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports David Clarke is believed likely to survive tonight’s preselection challenge from David Elliott with moderate support. (UPDATE: Clarke wins 50-36) Some interesting background detail from Keane: “The Campbell-Hawke assault on Clarke had its origins in a swift and cleverly executed turnover of delegates in Clarke’s preselection in late 2008 by Hawke, with most of the targets under the belief that Hawke was operating with Clarke’s imprimatur. Instead, Hawke removed or displaced nine preselectors and installed his own nominees, delivering an 18-vote turnaround that transformed Clarke’s preselection from comfortable to very challenging.” Deborah Snow of the Sydney Morning Herald reports former Opposition Leader Peter Collins has come out swinging at Clarke in support of David Elliott, saying Clarke was paying the price for blocking Elliott in federal Mitchell and state Riverstone.

• The quid pro quo for moderates supporting David Clarke is said to include the dropping of a preselection challenge against moderate incumbent Greg Pearce by Richard Quinn, and a smoothing of the way for Robyn Parker in the marginal seat of Maitland in lieu of her failure to retain her upper house position. Whoever gets the nod in Maitland will have things made easier by the announcement this week that Labor member Frank Terenzini will not seek another term.

Bevan Shields of the Lithgow Mercury reports Orange councillor Sam Romano will challenge Nationals MP John Cobb for preselection in Calare.

Caryn Metcalfe of the Penrith Press reports Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has been preselected as state Liberal candidate for Londonderry.

Macarthur preselection victim Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament. According to Matthew Ward of the Macarthur Chronicle, his main rivals for Liberal preselection would be Camden councillor Michael Cottrell and former Camden councillor Rob Elliott, with “possible candidates” including Camden mayor Chris Patterson or, if Patterson, won’t run, Citi Cycle Classic organiser Paul Hillbrick. Reports suggests it is Patterson’s for the taking if he wants it.

Hamish Coffee in comments advises Brent Thomas has defeated Right faction colleague Greg Holland for Labor preselection in Hughes.

• Not sure how much it was in doubt, but the ABC reports Damian Hale will seek another term in Solomon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,800 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. Hello! It looks like there is still at least one “Journalist” who is willing to get off his backside and not only investigate an issue, but tell it like it is. He doesn’t let Labor off the hook either which is how it should be.

    Kudos to Kenneth Davidson at The Age! This is a damn good read!

    [The Coalition is frustrating the government in its attempts to claw back some of the $3 billion a year subsidy to private insurers. To add a farcical touch, shadow treasurer Joe Hockey said last week that, in government, he would sell Medibank Private.

    Hello? Medibank Private is the biggest private health insurer because it is public. Hockey said it could be worth $3.5 to $4.5 billion, based on its revenue. This may be why the Coalition is obstructing means testing the $3 billion health insurance rebate – to maximise the sale price.

    Don’t laugh. The first thing the Kennett government did in Victoria was to boost electricity prices by 10 per cent to fatten up the sale price of the State Electricity Commission.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/private-health-its-enough-to-make-you-sick-20100221-oo03.html

  2. I really want to know: did Ms Kruk apologise? I really can’t imagine a senior public servant doing that – it would be a really ungood career move, not to mention dropping her minister in it.

  3. [His date stamp is five mins after I posted my comment]

    Gus, did you post as ‘welshboy’ as there is a relevant comment up there now?

  4. BH,

    [Unless she qualified her comments by outlining the other things Kruk & Co. said about procedures put in place where there were none previously Maiden needs pulling up.]

    One thing that “did” stand out in that piece of tripe was that she ommitted to say “who” the Senators were that had asked the questions she highlighted or who were the ones interupting and trying to twist the answers!

  5. My say,

    [and they dont even have a spell check and thats standard
    as others will testify i need it.]

    Are you using Firefox? It has a built-in spell-check and highlights blatant miss-spellings.

    It’s not perfect though as it doesn’t correct grammar or words that are incorrect for the meaning but correct in spelling, such as its/it’s; their/there; here/hear etc!

  6. [Maybe you’re in moderation; their comments are out of sequence.]

    Notice the message by ‘Tax Me’ went straight on. He’s a regular Liberal spammer, on there every day with his Liberal bull.

  7. [ne thing that “did” stand out in that piece of tripe was that she ommitted to say “who” the Senators were that had asked the questions she highlighted or who were the ones interupting and trying to twist the answers!]

    Scorpio – we all know who they were. I didn’t catch the name of the Labor Senator who asked some really pertinent questions. Maiden and the ABC were obviously deaf to the answers to those.

  8. I’d say Peter Garrett has some pretty good points to make in today’s QT (in 20 minutes). There might be some ancient history dug up too.

  9. [Ms Kruk apologised to the families of four installers whose deaths have been linked to the program.

    “I do it with all sincerity,” she said.]

    What did Ms Kruk sincerely apologise for?

  10. BH,

    [Scorpio – we all know who they were. I didn’t catch the name of the Labor Senator who asked some really pertinent questions. Maiden and the ABC were obviously deaf to the answers to those.]

    Yeah, we might, but the punters out there in readerville don’t watch Senate Estimates and wouldn’t be aware that it was Coalition or Green Senators asking the type of question hoping to damage the Government and rudely interrupting hoping to provoke a mistake in the response!

  11. I wasn’t paying attention the whole time. I heard Robin Kruk say that she regretted the deaths and extended her condolences, or something like that. She certainly didn’t apologise. The difference between “regretting” something and “apologising” for it was well established during the Howard years.

  12. scorpio i now feel dreadful do i do that. No no FireFox.
    My typing speed is 68 words a minute so i think i should concentrate more.
    but i love typing i also work from home so i must get on with things.
    i wish i did not even look here but i just cannot stand the liberals
    as i said it started when my husband was sent away with the aid of a marble in a barrel.

  13. [The Labor Senator was Anne McEwen (SA)]

    Thanks Psephos – she was so polite and pertinent that it made the other mob look a bit juvenile. They don’t listen, do they.

  14. [The Coalition is frustrating the government in its attempts to claw back some of the $3 billion a year subsidy to private insurers.]
    WOW! G.P. won’t be happy when he hears that the Liberals want the private health insurance market DISTORTED by $3 billion a year!

    I’m sure G.P. will be arguing that we need to get the government out of the private health insurance market so it operates more freely.

  15. [are we brave enough to watch qt]

    It will be fun, Hunt going red in the face, Pyne’s pointless points, Bronny’s latest fashion statement, Julie in latex and Tone slouching in the big chair.

    Won’t miss it for quids. 😉

  16. Yes – mysay. Be brave. Let’s count how many times Bronnie gets out of her chair. I think she’s trying to take over Pyne’s possie.

  17. I’m getting a bit jack with Senators who, when interviewed, tut tut about the Medicare rebate proposal representing a broken promise on behalf of Labor and implying that one of their reasons for voting against it is that they are holding the government to their promises…

    …how do these Senators justify not voting for the CPRS, then?

  18. A wonderful, hypocritical piece by Scott Morrison in the Punch. I hope the Union movement really goes in hard with this drone.

    Why should “any” Union expend resources representing the people working for the shonky operators engaged in the insulation program.

    I bet you could count the number of Union Members in the program on one hand and not use up all the fingers doing so!

    What a creep, wanting to deflect blame onto Unions Boo!

    Typical low-life Liberal~!
    http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-unions-were-complicit-in-garretts-insulation-failure/

    [Four young Australians have been killed and the union movement seems content to absolve the Government they paid $30 million to install at the last election. They are clearly happy with the Government’s excuse from Lindsay Tanner that they just didn’t have the time to dot the i’s and cross the t’s.

    Australian workers deserved better from their unions on Mr Garrett’s bungling of the home insulation programme. Their intoxication as political operatives and mindless pursuit of power for its own sake, has swamped the nobles purposes for which they were formed.]
    http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-unions-were-complicit-in-garretts-insulation-failure/

  19. [Labor and implying that one of their reasons for voting against it is that they are holding the government to their promises…]
    Whenever this is mentioned, Labor Senators just need to reply that the Liberals were all elected to support an Emissions Trading Scheme, so they are in no position to talk about promises.

  20. [A wonderful, hypocritical piece by Scott Morrison in the Punch. I hope the Union movement really goes in hard with this drone.]
    The more hypocritical part is his post in the comments where he says that White Australia was “Labor’s” policy!

  21. [Whenever this is mentioned, Labor Senators just need to reply that the Liberals were all elected to support an Emissions Trading Scheme, so they are in no position to talk about promises.]

    Excellent ShowsOn – I’ll use that around here, too, if you don’t mind.

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