Advertiser: 50.5-49.5 to Maywald in Chaffey

The Advertiser has published a poll of 571 respondents from the South Australian state seat of Chaffey, held by the state’s sole Nationals MP Karlene Maywald. It finds an effective dead heat in two-party terms between Maywald and Liberal candidate Tim Whetstone, with the former on 50.5 per cent. Primary vote figures after distribution of the undecided are 40 per cent for Whetstone, 30 per cent for Maywald, 14 per cent for Labor, 11 per cent for Family First and 3 per cent for the Greens. The result at the election was 53.2 per cent for Maywald and 28.2 per cent for the Liberal candidate, resulting in a 17.2 per cent Nationals-versus-Liberals margin after preferences. The margin of error on the poll is around 4 per cent. The paper appears not to have repeated the mistake of its poll of the electorate in August 2008, when it merely asked respondents which party they would vote for without naming Maywald as an option. When asked who Maywald should support in the event of a minority government, 53 per cent said Liberal and 33 per cent Labor. Maywald has served as a minister in Mike Rann’s government since 2004, currently in the water security and River Murray portfolios. She has nonetheless maintained she would support a “conservative” government in office.

Please feel free to use this thread for general discussion of the South Australian election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

619 comments on “Advertiser: 50.5-49.5 to Maywald in Chaffey”

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  1. [All the Mary-Lou posters I’ve seen here in Finniss are in colour.]

    Ok, so a rural electorate’s Labor posters has the candidate in colour. I stand corrected…

  2. [Re 593: Mainly eastern suburbs]

    Which ones? You’d think if any eastern suburbs Labor candidates should get colour, it’s those in marginal seats. Morialta and Hartley Labor candidates weren’t in colour…

  3. The Heysen Molotov,

    I have to admire some of your 570 simply because you’ve lifted much of it from my earlier posts. So, you get some points for good taste and copy and paste talents, but absolutely zero for originality and intellectual prowess.

    As for the rest, left wing dogma and foaming at the mouth burbling just proves the adage that you should never blog while under the influence of hallucinogens. Accusing people of being fascists is a corollary of Godwins Law, which means you lose the argument for no other reason than the shallowness of your abusive thinking processes.

    I’m more than pleased with the outcome of my little exercise in satire. Diogs picked up the clues in my jottings, as would anyone of reasonable intelligence. Sadly, both you and bob are exposed for the shallow dribblers you are.

  4. SO

    AFL under cover, soccer, the odd bit of rugby and the really big concerts. Sounds great to me. That $450M revamp of Adelaide Oval is a joke. I’d prefer they did nothing to wasting that kind of money to spruce up a stadium that won’t even be fully surrounded let alone have a roof.

  5. [AFL under cover, soccer, the odd bit of rugby and the really big concerts. Sounds great to me. ]
    Oh, sounds fantastic. If you and the various sporting associations are willing to pay for it, I have absolutely no problem with it.

  6. I think that the posters are the most interesting thing about the election. Who has colour? – who can’t even be bothered (Michael Atkinson)? The number of posters for Family First are amazing – what a cashed up organisation they must be – and all those supporters at the Assembly of God. Similarly the number of posters for Tom Grace, who I believe last ran for Family First. The first signs of rebellion however are showing as his posters are the first to be defaced by such grafitti wisecracks such as Abort T……

    Dignity for Disability have put up a few in Norwood too although they are far less cashed up judging by the size of the posters. Makes sense really as the disabled are not known for wealth. Save the RAH is up in Norwood too. David Winderlich posters seem to be fairly widely spread too and a few Democrat posters are going up to join the Greens.

    The black and white posters for Labor look like reruns from four years ago with a few new ones added. The MP for Hartley has taken over the huge space on the Glynde corner Fighting for You and has a lot of colour. The problem of course is that the member has been fighting councils instead of making sure that the Attorney-General isn’t running amok. The Labor colour posters seem to be in Liberal held seats such as Bragg and Unley. Meantime we have top posters falling over posters underneath, other posters are on the footpath and others have just bent in the middle with the wind. When they loook sloppy it is not a good look.

  7. [The first signs of rebellion however are showing as his posters are the first to be defaced by such grafitti wisecracks such as Abort T……]
    Heaps of Labor posters have been cut down in my area. I’ve seen at least a half dozen on the ground.

  8. [Heaps of Labor posters have been cut down in my area. I’ve seen at least a half dozen on the ground]

    And I thought PB was tough

    Have the police charged these thugs

    ps why didnt you help those poster’s back up?
    😉

  9. J Lo is definitely reusing her corflutes from 4 years ago. A few of the others look like last times as well.

    I’m amazed at the number of posters the minors have, especially AbortSA. FF and W have heaps too. I still haven’t seen any SaveRAH ones but I gather they are out there. I live in a “doctors wives” area (unsurprisingly) so I’m wondering why they aren’t in this part of town.

    The worst quality ones are the nutbag Climate Sceptics Party ones. He must have got his kids a stencil and crayons. I’m surprised he couldn’t get any funding from the carbon lobby.

    I’d love to know who’s coughing up for all of AbortSA’s stuff.

  10. SO

    Brokenshire actually seems like a decent guy. I can’t see him using AbortSA as a front for stuff he won’t say himself.

    Perhaps I’m not cynical enough…

  11. 1000 posters @ $10 each = a $10,000 campaign. A fair bit of money for one guy but if there are 25 people who share his cause then it’s $400 each to give their mate a chance in the leg co. It’s not as if he seems to be spending money on anything else.

    I’ve got to say also – most posters on the ground are there because whoever put them up didn’t tighten the wire enough. If they were the victims of poster assault they wouldn’t still be on the pole!

  12. Ill try not to bight but…

    GG
    Not some, but everything I said was cut-and-paste from you. I just changed the odd word to get my point across. This includes the faschist line, which was identicle to when you accused Diogs of being a communist with one word change. It was more an exercise in pointing out the absudity of your contribution, so you see how poor it is coming from the other direction. The so called “left wing dogma and foaming at the mouth” (which it was) was no different to what you were doing but in reverse: right wing dogma and foaming at the mouth.

    Nevertheless I see this:
    “I’m more than pleased with the outcome of my little exercise in satire. ”
    If you didnt mean that crud, and I dont know why you’d write it if you didn’t, then you should have put an emoticon. Otherwise, accusing people of being communists is a corollary of Bla-bla’s Law, which means you lose the argument for no other reason than the shallowness of your abusive thinking processes.

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