Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57.5-42.5, up from 56.5-43.5 last time. Labor are up a point to 47 per cent on the primary vote, while the Coalition are down one to 37 per cent.

It’s all happening in New South Wales:

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports David Clarke is believed likely to survive tonight’s preselection challenge from David Elliott with moderate support. (UPDATE: Clarke wins 50-36) Some interesting background detail from Keane: “The Campbell-Hawke assault on Clarke had its origins in a swift and cleverly executed turnover of delegates in Clarke’s preselection in late 2008 by Hawke, with most of the targets under the belief that Hawke was operating with Clarke’s imprimatur. Instead, Hawke removed or displaced nine preselectors and installed his own nominees, delivering an 18-vote turnaround that transformed Clarke’s preselection from comfortable to very challenging.” Deborah Snow of the Sydney Morning Herald reports former Opposition Leader Peter Collins has come out swinging at Clarke in support of David Elliott, saying Clarke was paying the price for blocking Elliott in federal Mitchell and state Riverstone.

• The quid pro quo for moderates supporting David Clarke is said to include the dropping of a preselection challenge against moderate incumbent Greg Pearce by Richard Quinn, and a smoothing of the way for Robyn Parker in the marginal seat of Maitland in lieu of her failure to retain her upper house position. Whoever gets the nod in Maitland will have things made easier by the announcement this week that Labor member Frank Terenzini will not seek another term.

Bevan Shields of the Lithgow Mercury reports Orange councillor Sam Romano will challenge Nationals MP John Cobb for preselection in Calare.

Caryn Metcalfe of the Penrith Press reports Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has been preselected as state Liberal candidate for Londonderry.

Macarthur preselection victim Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament. According to Matthew Ward of the Macarthur Chronicle, his main rivals for Liberal preselection would be Camden councillor Michael Cottrell and former Camden councillor Rob Elliott, with “possible candidates” including Camden mayor Chris Patterson or, if Patterson, won’t run, Citi Cycle Classic organiser Paul Hillbrick. Reports suggests it is Patterson’s for the taking if he wants it.

Hamish Coffee in comments advises Brent Thomas has defeated Right faction colleague Greg Holland for Labor preselection in Hughes.

• Not sure how much it was in doubt, but the ABC reports Damian Hale will seek another term in Solomon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,800 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. [Do they get to debate the amendment?]
    No. It just means there will be two divisions, one on the amendment and one on the motion.

  2. From our favourite Marsupial – I call it selective Socialism:-)


    I love it how the Lib lesser hacks are now running with the line that the government didnt intervene *enough* in business practices! less than 20 seconds ago from TweetDeck

  3. Frank C

    I do not think it is a good idea to compare the amount of companies failed during the “recession we had to have” and the Rudd watch compare with the few during the Liberal watch

    ABC Learning, Babcocks, Alco, Rams …….

  4. The Government was well prepared for this Censure Motion.

    Are the Libs becoming too predictable for their own good?

    Nah, I love them just the way they are! 😉

    Looks like Albo has been reading PB!

  5. [ABC Learning, Babcocks, Alco, Rams ……]
    The Howard government could’ve saved Australian Airlines if it let Air New Zealand buy it.

  6. [I don’t care what Turnbull thinks to be honest.]

    What Turnbull thinks to be honest most Liberals would never recognise in a month of Sundays.

  7. Ahh Hissy Flight Centre Pilot:


    #qt Pyne moves 11-minute extension of time for Albanese to actually defend the minister…. oh dear, it’s going to be a long year. less than a minute ago from TweetDeck

  8. [# As I said last week, you’d think Press Gallery journalists would have a grasp of how the Public Service works, but clearly not. about 1 hours ago from TweetDeck ]

    Bernard Keane – great that someone acknowledges it.

  9. No 1772

    Why is this surprising? The Government will always win divisions in the house, and the Opposition will always lose them.

  10. Poor Heffalump can’t take an more:


    Turning the live stream of parliament off. That’s quite enough babble from Rudd & Co. #qt half a minute ago from TweetDeck

  11. Ahh, Their ABC:

    * Garrett: I only saw insulation report last week
    * Peter Garrett on Radio National
    * Garrett failed to read damning report
    * Risk assessment takes 10 months to get to minister
    * Department head says sorry for insulation deaths
    * Garrett under siege over insulation fiasco

  12. So now is Abbott going to vote against this law to stop states from ever reintroducing the death penalty.

    Or, is he a gigantic hypocrite?

  13. [BOB McMULLAN [?]: I second the motion, Mr Speaker. This Minister is a disgrace and the government’s support for him is a disgrace when the Prime Minister should be ashamed of himself for supporting this scumbag.]

    Ah the good old days. 🙂

  14. Haven’t caugh up with the goings on here at PB for a couple of days so apologies if this allready mentioned.

    Kev will be on Good News Week tonight

    Hope he doesn’t do a Sharron Stone like Julie Bishop did 😉
    Or tell stories about chasing family members with axes 😀

  15. [Oh and the Poss vs Heffalump stoush on Twitter is just as entertaining.]
    Debating markets with G.P. is pointless because he supports government hand outs to private schools and private health insurance companies. He is a socialist when he wants to be, exactly like Tony Abbott.

  16. [You do wonder sometimes if the Gallery write their QT stories before QT actually happens.]
    Latika Bourke admitted on Twitter last week that she leaves the House at 2:30 to go to the Senate.

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