Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57.5-42.5, up from 56.5-43.5 last time. Labor are up a point to 47 per cent on the primary vote, while the Coalition are down one to 37 per cent.

It’s all happening in New South Wales:

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports David Clarke is believed likely to survive tonight’s preselection challenge from David Elliott with moderate support. (UPDATE: Clarke wins 50-36) Some interesting background detail from Keane: “The Campbell-Hawke assault on Clarke had its origins in a swift and cleverly executed turnover of delegates in Clarke’s preselection in late 2008 by Hawke, with most of the targets under the belief that Hawke was operating with Clarke’s imprimatur. Instead, Hawke removed or displaced nine preselectors and installed his own nominees, delivering an 18-vote turnaround that transformed Clarke’s preselection from comfortable to very challenging.” Deborah Snow of the Sydney Morning Herald reports former Opposition Leader Peter Collins has come out swinging at Clarke in support of David Elliott, saying Clarke was paying the price for blocking Elliott in federal Mitchell and state Riverstone.

• The quid pro quo for moderates supporting David Clarke is said to include the dropping of a preselection challenge against moderate incumbent Greg Pearce by Richard Quinn, and a smoothing of the way for Robyn Parker in the marginal seat of Maitland in lieu of her failure to retain her upper house position. Whoever gets the nod in Maitland will have things made easier by the announcement this week that Labor member Frank Terenzini will not seek another term.

• Bevan Shields of the Lithgow Mercury reports Orange councillor Sam Romano will challenge Nationals MP John Cobb for preselection in Calare.

• Caryn Metcalfe of the Penrith Press reports Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has been preselected as state Liberal candidate for Londonderry.

• Macarthur preselection victim Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament. According to Matthew Ward of the Macarthur Chronicle, his main rivals for Liberal preselection would be Camden councillor Michael Cottrell and former Camden councillor Rob Elliott, with “possible candidates” including Camden mayor Chris Patterson or, if Patterson, won’t run, Citi Cycle Classic organiser Paul Hillbrick. Reports suggests it is Patterson’s for the taking if he wants it.

• Hamish Coffee in comments advises Brent Thomas has defeated Right faction colleague Greg Holland for Labor preselection in Hughes.

• Not sure how much it was in doubt, but the ABC reports Damian Hale will seek another term in Solomon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,800 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  3. my say

    Click on this link

    http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/mediaplayer.aspx?mediaURL=http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/asx1/hms12v_100K.asx&CaptionFile=&CaptionTitle=Senate%20Standing%20References%20Committee:%20Environment,%20Communications%20and%20the%20Arts%20%28Inquiry%20into%20Energy%20Efficient%20Homes%20Package%20%28Ceiling%20Insulation%29%29%20%28HMS%2012%29%20//n//r%20Monday,%2022%20February%202010%2010:00%20AM%20-%2012:00%20PM&type=1

  4. Truthy

    I think the Greens have more to protest about from the Libs than Labor, esp with Abbott as leader. With Turnbull you might have done better than the 20% Green prefs you normally get, but under Abbott you might get even less.

  12. So the Feds are currently debating a bill that will make it impossible for the states to ever reintroduce the death penalty.

    If Tony Abbott has any credibility, he will have to vote against this bill.

  14. [Greens should vote Liberal as a protest vote]

    No, we vote Green then Labor instead of Labor then Green as a protest vote. Voting Liberal is for loonies like you.

  15. the Feds are currently debating a bill that will make it impossible for the states to ever reintroduce the death penalty.

    is this true or are you joking

  17. now is that because of the tasmanian and the s,a, elelction because a lot of people here have been worried about abbott and tas i smell a reason

  23. Dario

    On cue the Australian reportd

    [KEVIN Rudd’s bungled insulation program carried “inherent risks” and it was “not achievable” for such a program to be delivered without dangers, a senior public servant told a Senate inquiry today. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/top-bureaucrat-robyn-kruk-defends-insulation-scheme/story-e6frgczf-1225832957132

    Sorry Sam Maiden that is not what Ms Kruk said – it was the industry that carried the risks not the program.

  24. [Sorry Sam Maiden that is not what Ms Kruk said – it was the industry that carried the risks not the program.]
    It’s just a series of stupid statements. I mean seriously, if we want to minimise risk to zero in our lives then nobody would do anything.

  25. Interesting that Maiden has written exactly what OH and I surmised the OO would at the end of the hearing. Now let’s see what Christine Milne will say. I bet it is similar to Maiden even tho Milne was made to look a bit silly at times.

    And 3 cheers for Ms Kruk who was not browbeaten by the Libs and Milne.

    Liked the way she said that the industry had NEVER had any real regulation or training scheme in place before Garrett, e.g. the former fed. govt. Would be interesting to get a stat on how many house fires or shoddy jobs were done under Howard’s scheme. Has that been given anywhere?

  27. Rudd’s bungled insulation program carried “inherent risks” and it was “not achievable” for such a program to be delivered without dangers, a senior public servant told a Senate inquiry today.

    NOW ISNT THAT FUNNY WE WHERE TOLD THE SAME THING WHEN WE BUILT OUR NEW
    HOUSE LAST YEAR that is why we paid insurance re the building of the property.
    perhaps some one would tell them that. o dear

  30. Whenever you do work in a rough cavity you are in a dangerous place. There are power lines, it is cramped / confined and can be very hot. Of course there are inherent risks, the bureaucrats were stating the bleeding obvious that idiot journalists seem to think are astonishing revelations.

  35. vp i have noticed that a lot in the australian they dont you like you to comment on some things.
    Except for issues re the death penalty i dont think the one re how he missed sex etc sickening should not even write it was there either the Q.A. thing re the liberal woman
    they are very selective but then the abc never hd that one either.
    . as you can see i am a very conservative lady with high values. O dear.
    ,
    Did you read the account of that in the lauceston examiner, i think the reporter was not happy she even wrote how abbott putt back his head and laughed after he commented on the sex thing yuk yuk
    and he thinks he is p.m. material

  37. WOULD YOU TELL HER the hydro here gave all house holders a plug in
    warning device in case we have a problem in our homes of any kind.

    you may like to let them know that.
    So the hydro must think there can be problems.
    Do reporters have lives outside i wonder dont they know anything about out here
    if they new that one problem solved

  39. “Victorian Liberal Senator Helen Kroger is recovering in hospital after she was attacked by a dog last week.”

    David Clarke?

    No….? Too soon??

  42. Come on Frank – tweet Maiden for those of us who are not up with doing it.

    Unless she qualified her comments by outlining the other things Kruk & Co. said about procedures put in place where there were none previously Maiden needs pulling up.

    Who was it who said last week that the quality of Australian journalism is awful. I heard it on the radio and can’t roll the name off my tongue at the moment – but I will eventually.

  43. LOL! Scott Morrison says that the White Australia Policy was instituted by Labor!
    [BTW, while we’re talking about facts, the Liberal Party abolished Labor’s White Australia Policy. ]
    http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-unions-were-complicit-in-garretts-insulation-failure/
    It was actually part of the Australian settlement, a bipartisan consensus, that also included industry protection, wage fixing, state paternalism, and imperial benevolence.

  48. [This one is open for comments.]

    Good luck with getting a comment published. What with the possibility of encountering a biased moderator (depending on the roster), and the predictable avalanche of Liberal boosters who ‘work’ the ABC blogs daily, you’ll be needing it!

  49. Gusface,

    No comment after 35 minutes. Moderator slightly out to lunch? Makes William look really, really good (which, of course, he is :lol:)

Comments are closed.

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