Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57.5-42.5, up from 56.5-43.5 last time. Labor are up a point to 47 per cent on the primary vote, while the Coalition are down one to 37 per cent.

It’s all happening in New South Wales:

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports David Clarke is believed likely to survive tonight’s preselection challenge from David Elliott with moderate support. (UPDATE: Clarke wins 50-36) Some interesting background detail from Keane: “The Campbell-Hawke assault on Clarke had its origins in a swift and cleverly executed turnover of delegates in Clarke’s preselection in late 2008 by Hawke, with most of the targets under the belief that Hawke was operating with Clarke’s imprimatur. Instead, Hawke removed or displaced nine preselectors and installed his own nominees, delivering an 18-vote turnaround that transformed Clarke’s preselection from comfortable to very challenging.” Deborah Snow of the Sydney Morning Herald reports former Opposition Leader Peter Collins has come out swinging at Clarke in support of David Elliott, saying Clarke was paying the price for blocking Elliott in federal Mitchell and state Riverstone.

• The quid pro quo for moderates supporting David Clarke is said to include the dropping of a preselection challenge against moderate incumbent Greg Pearce by Richard Quinn, and a smoothing of the way for Robyn Parker in the marginal seat of Maitland in lieu of her failure to retain her upper house position. Whoever gets the nod in Maitland will have things made easier by the announcement this week that Labor member Frank Terenzini will not seek another term.

Bevan Shields of the Lithgow Mercury reports Orange councillor Sam Romano will challenge Nationals MP John Cobb for preselection in Calare.

Caryn Metcalfe of the Penrith Press reports Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has been preselected as state Liberal candidate for Londonderry.

Macarthur preselection victim Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament. According to Matthew Ward of the Macarthur Chronicle, his main rivals for Liberal preselection would be Camden councillor Michael Cottrell and former Camden councillor Rob Elliott, with “possible candidates” including Camden mayor Chris Patterson or, if Patterson, won’t run, Citi Cycle Classic organiser Paul Hillbrick. Reports suggests it is Patterson’s for the taking if he wants it.

Hamish Coffee in comments advises Brent Thomas has defeated Right faction colleague Greg Holland for Labor preselection in Hughes.

• Not sure how much it was in doubt, but the ABC reports Damian Hale will seek another term in Solomon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,800 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. Why does Rudd keep banging on about Mary MacKillop and the mediaval hocus pocus of the Catholic church. He does not speak for all of us on this matter when he said last week that all Australians would be thrilled, Catholic or not. I am not thrilled – I am embarrassed!
    Now stand by for the drivel from Abbott on the matter.

  2. What? Abbott says “finally a Vatican decision I can support”. What about his absurd, yet Vatican approved, position on stem cell research including likening human embryos to tadpoles?

  3. Abbott was caught totally off guard by Kevvie. The look on his face was priceless.

    Watch out Tony, Kevvie is angling for your Catholic voting block! 😉

  4. ShowsOn now now she is my favourite and i pray to her every day to help Mr. Rudd
    what is more important than that. I can tell you about a couple of people who had cancer that was not good at all both recovered.
    coincidence who knows .
    I love my saints and guardian angels they help me every day and i am not ashamed to say so But abbotts catholicism is NOT mine.

  5. [I can tell you about a couple of people who had cancer that was not good at all both recovered.]
    This happens sometimes. It isn’t evidence of divine intervention.

    In fact, McKilliop’s supposed 2nd miracle concerns one of the hardest types of cancer to diagnose, even doctors NOW, in the 21st Century find it hard to determine if the person actually has the cancer or if it isn’t a different illness.

    So there is no conclusive evidence this person actually had cancer in the first place, let alone any evidence that they were magically cured by someone who had long since died.

  6. My say,

    [i pray to her every day to help Mr. Rudd]

    She might be a bit more favourable to Kevvie! As far as we know, Kevvie hasn’t broken all the Ten Commandments except one.

    Abbott is still working on the remaining one that he hasn’t broken yet! 😉

    He would probably like Kevvie to be the victim! lol

  7. [She might be a bit more favourable to Kevvie! As far as we know, Kevvie hasn’t broken all the Ten Commandments except one.]
    This isn’t a year for praying. Anyone who wants Rudd to win should letterbox, and hand out how to vote cards, it is the easiest way to get the message out. It just requires a lot more energy than praying.

  8. abbott does it because he hides behind his religion and i have written to him many times and told him that he not most catholics kind of catholic i cannot stand him
    he makes me ashamed to be catholic. We are on a different page i think
    he just likes to hear him self talk.
    I have chatted to the nuns there many times and they do not make a big deal about Mary they just respect her life and the fact that she started most of catholic school s in australia around the 1800’s
    she would ride on horse back from s.a. to qld on her own
    she also had rheumatoid arthritis she was excommunicated from the church because she would not toe the line.

    You should read her life story, she all so went to the jails and looked after prostitutes and the like took in starving people and all with out any money of her own
    she relied on the people of good faith to help her out, and they did .
    There was very little money for food etc and the joys of life.
    If she was not a saint to some she truly was a remarkable woman
    and i say her heart must of touched a lot of our ancestors over the years
    .I just wish abbott would not turn up to any of the functions but or course he will.

  9. Speaking as an atheist, I don’t have any problems with political leaders showing respect to the religious beliefs of the various communities, provided it is done in an even-handed and non-sectarian way. The majority of Australians have religious views of various kinds, and politicians can’t be expected to ignore that.

  10. 1559 vp they do, i suppose you are not used to peoplel like me blogging
    ‘here well to bad it takes all sorts . you know and with out faith of some kind
    we have nothing to fall back on in times of trouble and worry.

  11. [The majority of Australians have religious views of various kinds, and politicians can’t be expected to ignore that.]
    My guesstimate is that in the next census, adherents to “no religion” will be second only to Catholics as the biggest ‘community’.

  12. [Anyone who wants Rudd to win should letterbox, and hand out how to vote cards, it is the easiest way to get the message out.]

    We’ll be doing that too ShowsOn but mysay is very lucky to have that comfort.

    Looks like a censure motion coming up for Pete shortly.

  13. [I’m grateful for the diversity here as, I’m sure, is everyone else.]

    Hear, hear. You say what you want to, mysay. We appreciate your views too.

  14. ShowsOn@1576

    My guesstimate is that in the next census, adherents to “no religion” will be second only to Catholics as the biggest ‘community’.

    I wonder who would win if it went to preferences?

  15. [The majority of Australians have religious views of various kinds, and politicians can’t be expected to ignore that.

    My guesstimate is that in the next census, adherents to “no religion” will be second only to Catholics as the biggest ‘community’.]

    Maybe so, but that won’t alter the point I made.

  16. The audit is now being extended to 160,000 homes.

    [Environment Minister Peter Garrett confirmed today the government had expanded the audit and inspection program to 15 per cent of homes with non-foil insulation.

    While serious concerns have been raised over the prospect of faulty foil insulation making roofs “live” and risking electrocution there are also concerns that the more traditional “pink batts” can spark fires if incorrectly installed, particularly around down lights.

    An estimated 160,000 homes that had non-foil insulation will be audited under the new safety measure.]

  17. my say @ 1570,

    Don’t worry about it. Us atheists often have the fervor of the new convert, even if we’ve been (not) at it for yonks!

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