Morgan’s second poll in consecutive weeks shows a big stimulus package bounce to Labor, albeit one following a dip in the earlier survey. Labor’s primary vote is up five points to 51.5 per cent, and its two-party lead has widened from 56-44 to 60-40. The Liberals are down 2.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent, and the Greens are steady on 8 per cent.
UPDATE (14/2): Today’s West Australian has a Westpoll survey of 403 respondents in WA showing federal Labor leading 55-45, after trailing 51-49 in October. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister has increased from 54-35 to 63-22. The result in WA at the 2007 election was about 53-47 in the Coalition’s favour.
• Today’s passage of the fiscal stimulus package through the Senate will probably take the heat out of early election speculation, but don’t let that stop you reading Antony Green‘s overview of the procedural and constitutional hurdles.
• This website has been dutifully reporting on Tasmania’s periodic upper house elections sice 2004, so it’s a great pleasure to report that this year’s will actually be interesting for a change. For this we can thank Harry Quick, formerly the maverick Labor member for the federal seat of Franklin, has announced he will nominate for Greens preselection to take on Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird in his Hobart seat of Derwent.
• Yesterday was the anniversary of the first sitting of the current parliament, which means the Electoral Commissioner has presumably conducted his determination of the number of House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to. As head counters will be aware, this will mean the initiation of redistribution processes in Queensland and New South Wales, which will respectively gain and lose a seat.
Wow – Christopher Pyne’s whiny voice will be worse than Joe’s blustering one.
Somebody should have been brave enough to tell Julie Bishop that she didn’t have the expertise to be Shadow Treasurer. It’s a hard job because everything you say has to be spot on to put a Treasurer off song – he/she has got the resources of the Treasury.
Turnbull has been feeding Bishop the wrong stuff – and as others have said, he is nothing more than a lawyer/salesman. He’s no economist with the drivel he spouts.
If you ever want to laugh, just listen to Pyne move a motion to suspend standing orders.
Boy oh boy. What was Howard not prepared to do or spend to shore up the military vote?
[Proposed cuts to senior officers’ perks have sparked what Defence insiders have dubbed “the battle of the butler”.
The Advertiser has been told many senior officers are angry about losing taxpayer-funded butlers, valets, batmen, housekeepers, cooks, drivers, first-class travel entitlements (reduced to business class), spouse travel and access to the RAAF’s luxury VIP aircraft.
Some senior officers have threatened to resign if the Government proceeds with the cuts.]
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25059123-5006301,00.html
Once upon a time, having a “Batman” was seen as a reasonable “perk” for senior officers. Howard took that to a higher level indeed.
[Mr Pyne has filled in for Mr Hockey during recent Parliamentary sitting periods and used his long parliamentary experience to good effect.]
The OO makes everything seem so positive concerning the Libs don’t they
On the other side of the coin the ABC radio news were still saying Labor is defending their $42 bil stimulus package yesterday. If it was a Lib package they would have said “promoting” instead of defending.
[Somebody should have been brave enough to tell Julie Bishop that she didn’t have the expertise to be Shadow Treasurer.]
I’m convinced that in the last Howard government, she was a token female cabinet minister. Was she actually good at Education? What did she do other than calling reviews?
“When our leader Malcolm Turnbull was elected last year, I chose the treasury portfolio because it had been something of a tradition in the Liberal Party for the deputy leader to hold that portfolio and because I believed that with Malcolm and others this would give the opposition a strong and effective team in the area of economic management,” she said.
Ms Bishop said the ongoing commentary about her role had been a distraction.
“While I believe I have carried out my duties as shadow treasurer diligently and competently, I have formed the opinion that the ongoing commentary on my role has been a distraction from the scrutiny that should have been applied to the government’s reckless economic performance,” she said.
———–
Just saw her on Sky Noos saying that. She’s saying it very slowly and smiling heaps. It’s definately scripted, she doesn’t really believe what she’s saying.
Pyne 09!
(I knew his time would come. Just think, he was hawking plastic combs only a few years ago …)
I have just read the Franklin “plagiarism” article and am dumbfounded. Rudd is accused of quoting and duly accrediting the words of a world leader as if there is something fundamentally inappropriate in doing so.
Is there something I don’t understand in all this?
On ABC in Perth today I heard two Liberal tools, ABC’s Geoff Hutchison and Peter Van Olsten, discussing this gleefully. I must admit however that Hutchison was the more enthusiastic of the two in promoting this non existent beatup.
Having realised that the story itself is contradictory, imbecilic, nonsense they tried to make the case that Rudd was in the wrong because he quoted somebody quoting the Chinese leader (accrediting both) and should have gone to the source document, namely the exact wording of the original speech in Chinese!
When oh when will Rudd take a broom through the ABC at all levels.This is far beyond partisanship, it is straight out malignity.
Thank God for you lot who read the OO and pass it on – I don’t get much time to read it online so appreciate what you lot provide by way of analysis.
I’ll be watching Sky Agenda this arvo to hear Hawker and Morris on today’s news. Graham Morris has been surprisingly fair about Labor since the election.
Does he work for some lobby group which needs to keep on the right side of Govt because it sure sounds like it. A huge difference from Nov. 07.
I suppose its quite hard to have a policy debate when your previous method was to hire Alan Jones or Andrew Bolt to repeat the same 8 word sentence over and over a thousand times (there, 8000 words!), all at taxpayers expense as part of a government “information” campaign for its policy launch.
[Top brass will keep generous household and travel allowances and other benefits such as free rent and health care as well as annual salary packages ranging from $344,000 to $428,000.]
The poor precious things. No wonder they covered Howard’s ar*e in Senate Hearings and through the media over Children Overboard, Iraq etc.
[Having realised that the story itself is contradictory, imbecilic, nonsense they tried to make the case that Rudd was in the wrong because he quoted somebody quoting the Chinese leader (accrediting both) and should have gone to the source document, namely the exact wording of the original speech in Chinese!]
Oh dear – using a secondary source! Hand in the keys to the Lodge please Mr Rudd.
Geez… straws let me clutch thee
[to repeat the same 8 word sentence over and over a thousand times
I think you’re right:]
[As she walked from the press conference back to her office, Ms Bishop repeated: “It’s my choice, it’s my judgment.”]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/julie-bishop-quits-opposition-treasury-role-20090216-88nq.html?page=2
Is Coonan experienced enough to be Finance Minister? She hasn’t been overly impressive in Senate hearings. Her contributions are usually ‘gotcha’ type questions and not information gathering.
When you boil it down they really don’t have a lot of talent on the Opp. benches in the old stock. Time for a lot of new bloods to come in.
Poor Abbott, left to hyperventilate again in the portfolio he really doesn’t want – did anyone else catch Geoffrey Robertson’s Hypothetical on A-Pac. Tony looked so glum throughout most of it but I didn’t shed a tear for him. He deserves everything he gets.
The world has certainly changed – when Bishop go the interest rate wrong on her second day as Shadow Treasurer all the way back in September(!) She said 7.25 instead of 7%. Now it’s 3.25%…
I love this piece
“I am very excited about foreign affairs. It is an important role.
“It has always been an important portfolio within the coalition and I hope that we will be able to ensure that the standing and importance of Australia’s role in international affairs is retained.” Julie Bishop as reported in the “The Age” 16/2/09
Still thinks they are the Government and she can have the say!! Poor, deluded gel!!
It’s hilarious to see all the hacks at the OO pretending they knew Bishop would go when they seem to have been the only news agency in Australia who didn’t know it was going to happen. The Libs, and JB esp, must be very unhappy with the OO to leak it to the SMH in preference.
Another nail in the OO coffin.
Gee I can hardly wait for the Coonan Tanner debates. 😮
BH, perhaps she is referring to hoping that if she ever makes it to government, she will be able to retain Australia’s international standing and importance that Labor has rebuilt since the coalition shattered it?
The ABC as we know is thoroughly corrupted with the ditched Howard Govt’s implant of spite into the organisation. They are truly desperate if this is all the can come up with. The neocon journalists are sinking with Turnbull and refuse to make themselves relevant or honest.
[The ABC as we know is thoroughly corrupted with the ditched Howard Govt’s implant of spite into the organisation.]
I don’t think the ABC is biased. Usually when it attacks the government it does so from the left.
Next election Mckewen and latrobe to go ALP, Mcmillan 50/50 but lib retain. ALP to hold every other current seat.
Showson:
[“It’s my choice, it’s my judgment.”]
No. it’s my Party, i cry if i want to, cry if i want:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRbsz1Ha7Zo
“Next election Mckewen and latrobe to go ALP, Mcmillan 50/50 but lib retain.”
Why?
“ALP to hold every other current seat.”
Big call.
1074 – lol
Finns,
Wasn’t the follow up “Julie’s turn to cry”?
[Next election Mckewen and latrobe to go ALP,]
Is that assuming Fran Bailey doesn’t run?
not that its a big event(for some) but another first for rudd and his green cred
[Sea turtle experts in Brisbane for world symposium]
‘It is the first time the annual Symposium on Sea Turtle Biology and Conservation is being held in the Southern Hemisphere.’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/16/2492177.htm?section=justin
1070 – you are right Bob.
Centaur – that is a huge call. Altho I don’t think Fran Bailey was much chop in her portfolio she seems to have been handling things well over the past 10 days. McEwen may well thank her if she stands again.
I’d like it to be otherwise. This tragedy may leave her feeling utterly depleted and wanting to retire. She is one who should step aside for younger fodder.
Other half and I stood next to her at baggage carousel in Adelaide last year and he, unfortunately said quite loudly, ‘there is that bloody woman who wasted our money on that rotten ad”. She gave him a very dirty look and I felt a bit sorry. She seemed such an old, tiny and worn-out lady”
It was JUDY’S turn to cry, but it could be adapted 🙂
[ALP to hold every other current seat]
Robertson?
“She seemed such an old, tiny and worn-out lady.”
A lot like the Liberal Party of Australia, really.
The occupation of journalism just gets easier and easier. This header could be used every day for the next 6 months. It will eventually prove to be right.
[QUEENSLAND could be heading for the polls as early as tomorrow, with Premier Anna Bligh and her party ready for an election]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25058646-5006786,00.html
The federal government has handled this crisis extremely well, and they will be repayed in the election. I am only talking about victoria mind you not the rest of Australia. both those seats are very marginal anyway
[The occupation of journalism just gets easier and easier. This header could be used every day for the next 6 months. It will eventually prove to be right.]
And the day after the election is eventually called, the headline will be “Govt calls Election as predicted”
[I am only talking about victoria mind you not the rest of Australia]
Ah, ok
Hehehe, I was right. Matthew “reliable sources” Franklin, the man who said Bishop was safe, is also listed as one of the writers on tha oz piece Scorpio linked to about the supposed Qld election. If he makes enough predictions he must believe that some will come true. Lets call him “Nostradamus”.
Socrates,
I won’t be relying on his football tips.
Libs are just shuffling deck chairs, it won’t help them one bit 😀 …….
Recall the Peter principle 😉 ….. {from Wikipedia} — The Peter Principle is the principle that “In a Hierarchy Every Employee Tends to Rise to His Level of Incompetence.”
Re 1090,
Read on for more on Peter’s Corollary 😉 ….
[
The Peter Principle is the principle that “In a Hierarchy Every Employee Tends to Rise to His Level of Incompetence.” While formulated by Dr. Laurence J. Peter and Raymond Hull in their 1968 book The Peter Principle, a humorous treatise which also introduced the “salutary science of Hierarchiology”, “inadvertently founded” by Peter, the principle has real validity. It holds that in a hierarchy, members are promoted so long as they work competently. Sooner or later they are promoted to a position at which they are no longer competent (their “level of incompetence”), and there they remain. Peter’s Corollary states that “in time, every post tends to be occupied by an employee who is incompetent to carry out his duties” and adds that “work is accomplished by those employees who have not yet reached their level of incompetence”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_principle
]
Is that a dig at the right wing nostradamus that use to write here?
The Peter Principle has been disproved by several studies since 1968. In well-run hierarchical organisations, an assessment is made of a person’s competence before they are promoted, and usually people are not promoted beyond their level of competence. If they are, their incompetence is soon detected and they are moved out of that position. Organisations which do not follow these practices fail to compete with those that do (in the private sector at any rate) and disappear. Peter assumes that hierarchies are static and not subject to competitive pressures, but this is rarely the case.
In regard to Bishop, the problem as I said last night is not that she was incompetent. The problem is that she was given an impossible job – selling a nonsensical policy. Unless that changes, Hockey will fail just as Bishop did.
“usually people are not promoted beyond their level of competence”
Ladies and gentleman, I present to you George Two-terms Bush …
Adam,
I get a sense about Bishop that she is a CV filler. She seems to have had a lot of positions both in Parliament and prior. What seems to be lacking is a definitive achievement or evidence that she can sell her ideas beyond the network of close personal friends that got her to where she was.
thanks for that “clarification”, Inner Westie 😀
AIC @ 1093: you said “well-run”. We are talking about the Parliamentary Liberal Party in Opposition.
It’s amazing the number of posters on this ABC blog that are pushing Costello’s barrow. The ABC comment articles appear to be popular with Young Libs & Staffers who tend to swarm onto anything that they feel will give them some leverage.
I thought these two were quite funny. The site picked up more than 100 comments in less than an hour.
[ Peter will be back, I’m sure of it. He’s an outstanding politician, and in my view the best chance for the coalition is with him in leadership. I think that he knows that, but also knew that 4 years is a long time in opposition. He’ll come in somewhere around 12 to 6 months closer to the next election.]
[The most likely timing of the next election is August-October 2010. It took Kev 12 months to turn the fortunes of the ALP around so I’m guessing St Peter will challenge about 3-6 months after the Budget.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/16/2492422.htm
Neither the US election system nor the Parliamentary Liberal Party are “hierarchical organisations” in the sense that Peter was discussing.