Morgan: 60-40

Morgan’s second poll in consecutive weeks shows a big stimulus package bounce to Labor, albeit one following a dip in the earlier survey. Labor’s primary vote is up five points to 51.5 per cent, and its two-party lead has widened from 56-44 to 60-40. The Liberals are down 2.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent, and the Greens are steady on 8 per cent.

UPDATE (14/2): Today’s West Australian has a Westpoll survey of 403 respondents in WA showing federal Labor leading 55-45, after trailing 51-49 in October. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister has increased from 54-35 to 63-22. The result in WA at the 2007 election was about 53-47 in the Coalition’s favour.

• Today’s passage of the fiscal stimulus package through the Senate will probably take the heat out of early election speculation, but don’t let that stop you reading Antony Green‘s overview of the procedural and constitutional hurdles.

• This website has been dutifully reporting on Tasmania’s periodic upper house elections sice 2004, so it’s a great pleasure to report that this year’s will actually be interesting for a change. For this we can thank Harry Quick, formerly the maverick Labor member for the federal seat of Franklin, has announced he will nominate for Greens preselection to take on Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird in his Hobart seat of Derwent.

• Yesterday was the anniversary of the first sitting of the current parliament, which means the Electoral Commissioner has presumably conducted his determination of the number of House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to. As head counters will be aware, this will mean the initiation of redistribution processes in Queensland and New South Wales, which will respectively gain and lose a seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,154 thoughts on “Morgan: 60-40”

Comments Page 21 of 24
1 … 20 21 22 … 24

  3. Musrum 🙂

    That approach certainly sounds like Turnbull all right. Unfortunately Bishop obvioulsy would up with a Portfolio Derivative Obligation, which combine shadow portfolios with incumbent Liberals. Her portfolio will now presumably be bundled with a marginal seat.

  5. Will Hockey still be The Oppositions Leader of the House?

    bob1234, beat me to it. Dutton was the apprentice MOB and will take over.

    QT should be fun. The poor old Speaker will have his hands full controlling QT now.

  9. Shanahan keeps hoping:

    Her problem has been an inability to cut through on the economic debate and take advantage of the perceived weakness of Wayne Swan as treasurer.

    “preceived”…

  13. That Matt Franklin who said Bishop was safe – is he the same one who keeps banging on about early elections in Qld? I thought he was ex Courier Mail. Apology if I have him mixed up; as I say I don’t read the Oz any more.

    Either way, it would be amusing to ask Franklin who his “source” was for that story.

  21. Ms Bishop said she felt she had fulfilled her obligations in the treasury role.

    “When our leader Malcolm Turnbull was elected last year, I chose the treasury portfolio because it had been something of a tradition in the Liberal Party for the deputy leader to hold that portfolio and because I believed that with Malcolm and others this would give the opposition a strong and effective team in the area of economic management,” she said.

    Ms Bishop said the ongoing commentary about her role had been a distraction.

    “While I believe I have carried out my duties as shadow treasurer diligently and competently, I have formed the opinion that the ongoing commentary on my role has been a distraction from the scrutiny that should have been applied to the government’s reckless economic performance,” she said.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25060636-601,00.html

  22. The Eyes Have It: self hypnosis and political delusion
    The Tragic Case of Madam Mesmer

    by Peter Van Onselen

    (available soon from Random House)

  23. How long before Rudd or Gillard come out and say that Julie Bishop took the fall for Turnbull’s terrible performance on economic issues? How long since Labor has had such a great run? I don’t think even Hawkie ever had it this good.

  25. I’m not sure about Uncle Joe, Dio.
    I thought he was an ‘alright bloke’ until he did John Howard’s dirty work after Rudd was elected Leader and started deningrating Rudd in a nasty way. He could have been more careful in his choice of words but he decided to be nasty.

    They were supposed to be friends prior to that – I don’t expect Joe to be complimentary to Rudd but friends don’t use venom as a means of opposing policy.

    Killen and Daly used to do it beautifully and remained good friends.

    Nah, I think Joe has a really nasty streak underneath and he is a beaut fibber. He is a spoilt little boy who has always got his own way. Swannie will do him nicely.

  26. Gotta laugh, the Libs said Swanny wouldn’t last, weakest link and all that, but he’s still standing and we’re now up to number 3 for their mob.

  27. When one is up themselves demanding 100% literacy , they sprout non-sense:

    ADAM in Canberra
    Posted SUNDAY, February 15, 2009 at 7:52 pm | Permalink

    #787
    “If I might go against the consensus here, I don’t think Bishop has done all that bad a job, apart from the plagiarism business…..The problem is not Bishop, …….Bishop would have to be Superwoman to sound credible when she talks the nonsense she finds herself forced to talk. It’s actually to her credit that she can’t sound convincing – it shows she has enough integrity to be embarrassed about it….”
    .
    just knew th above foolish statemetn would be exposed as high flutin pretty b.ull , but geez not so literacy-wise so quick……a mere 24 hours later

  32. Oh dear, Bishop for FA. A very pale imitation of the real deal. Just watch Hillary struts her stuff in Asia.

    US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has set off on her first overseas visit as top US diplomat days after pledging greater engagement with Asia. Her stops in Japan, Indonesia, South Korea and China are the first time the region has been the initial trip for a secretary of state since the 1960s.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7891511.stm

    Obama should get down to his knees and thank that he got Hillary as his SOS. The Asians always prefer to deal with a white face.

  34. Her stops in Japan, Indonesia, South Korea and China are the first time the region has been the initial trip for a secretary of state since the 1960s.

    This is so much more important to us rather than what goes on in the middle East.

    Keating made the point during APEC when he said the main game in international relations over the next 50 years is what happens in Asia.

  35. just knew th above foolish statemetn would be exposed as high flutin pretty b.ull , but geez not so literacy-wise so quick……a mere 24 hours later

    Amigo, please be gentle with Adam, he has not been in Canberra for long enough.

  38. Ah Vera – Julia G just grows and grows in my estimation. It is so good that the Fab 4 are proving themselves to be superior in every way. What a farce it makes of the rubbish thrown at them before and since the election.

    I reserve the ‘stupidest’ for Trioli, Adam.

    This morning she was beating up Rudd’s so called plaigarism story with a huge smirk on her face.

    We can always tell when there is a ‘down’ story about the Libs because Trioli wears a miserable face. A big, ubeaut smirk means a ‘downer’ about Labor.

  39. I wonder if Hockey is going to back flip on Bishop’s lack of policies? Or will Hockey continue the policy of having no policies?

    I think one of his policies will be TAX CUTS.

  40. from the Age

    Ms Bishop, the federal member for Curtin, has switched portfolios to foreign affairs, where she will take on fellow Perth MP Stephen Smith

    I don’t think so, she now takes on Downer, who doen’t seem to know he’s no longer Foreign Affairs Minister 🙂

  42. Pyne has Manager of Opposition business! How boring:

    As Mr Hockey is also the manager of Opposition Business in Parliament, Mr Turnbull is expected to appoint South Australian frontbencher Christopher Pyne, to the key parliamentary role.

    Mr Pyne has filled in for Mr Hockey during recent Parliamentary sitting periods and used his long parliamentary experience to good effect.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25060636-601,00.html

  43. Ms Bishop has become an object of ridicule from Labor backbenchers in the house. Each time she rises, the Labor MPs ask: “Who wrote that?”
    Mr Rudd could now find himself facing similar jibes.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25059462-601,00.html

    With the world financial system in meltdown and a multitude of domestic issues to deal with, the Opposition would just prove how shallow and inconsequential they really are to follow that line.

    If they could find it within themselves to divorce their policy strategy away from 3rd rate Newes Ltd hacks and Crosby-Textor, they might, just might, stand some chance of at least cutting through at least a little bit. Don’t hold your breath expecting anything to happen though. They can’t think for themselves after 12 years of Howard & C/T doing all their thinking for them.

  46. Scorpio
    Clearly the Libs don’t know the difference between acknowledged research and theft of other people’s ideas. I guess its all just part of the cut and paste of normal politics for them. Probably just like their uni days.

    The problem for them changing policies is that some of their most powerful and influential people will have to admit they were wrong. Quite hard to do I suspect.

  49. Exactly Socrates – its just a matter of referencing and declaring your sources – Julie Bishop’s error was not to cite her sources – thats academic plagiarism.

  50. To the question “who wrote that?”, Rudd would respond “Nicolas Sarkozy and Wang Qishan, as cited in my 8000 word essay injecting much-needed intellectual discipline and rigour into the national discussion about the merits or otherwise of free market capitalism”.

Comments Page 21 of 24
1 … 20 21 22 … 24

Comments are closed.