The latest Tasmanian state poll from EMRS has Labor at 42 per cent (up two from November), the Liberals at 36 per cent (up one) and the Greens at 19 per cent (down four). David Bartlett’s preferred premier rating is up four to 41 per cent, while Will Hodgman is steady on 29 per cent. Electorate breakdowns show Labor performing strongly in Lyons but struggling in Braddon, although these results are from samples of around 200. More from Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics.
14 comments on “EMRS: 42-36 to Labor in Tasmania”
Anything can happen in Tasmania. Howard smashed Latham their in 2004.
1 – A touch of desperation in that comment.
And in other Tassie news, Harry Quick (former federal Labor member for Franklin, but not Labor no more) is running for the Greens in the state upper house, against the treasurer.
Quite a bit more here, from the Hobart Mercury:
“Anything can happen in Tasmania. Howard smashed Latham their in 2004.”
Liberals held 2 of 5 seats in 2004, they held 0 of 5 in 2007.
Bree, when even GP tells you to shut up, you know you’re wrong 😛
Tas Labor will be looking very closely at how the ACT minority govt turns out. If that doesn’t fall apart, and Labor lose their majority in the next election, they’ll probably do the same thing (I can’t see them being keen for another Labor-Green Accord). The Greens would be looking at what their Canberra colleagues are doing, too.
Still looks to me like Tassie is headin towards a minority government. Especially if those results are from the new Braddon as oppossed to the old Braddon. That La trobe Mayor Gaffney is trying for the Legislative council instead of the Assembly looks like a real blow in Braddon. The 49.3 percent primary vote will be very hard to replicate after being in power as long as they have.
As a Greens voter I’m pretty disgusted at the prospect of Harry Quick running in my electorate. 🙁
I think a minority (Labor) government is what we’ll get. Will Hodgman just hasn’t cut it, nice bloke though he is. And there’s no depth to the Libs down here – so at least they’re consistent, hey Bree? 😉
Harry Quick is yet to win pre selection.
The seat by seat breakdowns are based on extremely small sample sizes – approx 200 voters surveyed per electorate with a high uncertainty rate. EMRS have not published these breakdowns for a long time for exactly that reason and I was surprised to see the return of this almost meaningless item.
What’s interesting about the Braddon sample (for those who even want to try reading anything into such statistically meaningless scatter) is that while Labor would lose their third seat on that sample, they would lose it to the Greens and not to the Liberals. But the Greens have never polled 16 in Braddon at a real election (however much they might poll around that in EMRS polls); they only polled 10.3 last time. People are talking about Braddon as a crucial seat, and perhaps it is in view of the state of disgrace of Greens and Kons, but Labor has a big cushion in Braddon. It would take a 4-7% swing to lose it (and the lower %age values in that range are if the swing goes mostly to the Greens, which won’t happen).
Hope to have something up on Tas Times on Monday if I get my act together.
Make that Tuesday.
Well, with Peg Putt (ex-Leader Greens) deciding she could make more money as a “Climate Change/ETS Consultant” (that’s without a Science degree btw) who can blame ordinary Tas folk?
The Greens, really full of wisdom. Forestry Tasmania burn-offs last year, they screamed “The sky looks like cigarette smoke (?)” and “the tourist don’t like it” too bad about home-owners though.
[“the tourist don’t like it”]
That is just poor marketing.