Newspoll: 58-42

Newspoll has come a day early – or six days late, depending on your perspective. Key findings of the survey, which was conducted over the past two days:

• Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 58-42 from 54-46 at the last Newspoll three weeks ago (although Peter Brent‘s “rough calculation” had it at 55-45).

• Fifty-seven per cent believe the stimulus package will be good for the economy, and 48 per cent believe it will make them personally better off. Support is inversely proportional to age.

• Labor is up five points on the primary vote to 48 per cent, with the Coalition’s down three to 36 per cent.

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is steady on 63 per cent, and his disapproval up one to 26 per cent.

• Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down one point to 44 per cent, and his disapproval is up seven to 38 per cent.

• Sixty-three per cent believe the government is doing a good job managing the economy, and only 33 per cent believe the Coalition would do better.

Other news:

• The Greens’ parliamentary leader in New South Wales, Lee Rhiannon, has quit her Legislative Council seat and declared her intention to run for the Senate (UPDATE: Not quite – she has “informed the party that when federal elections are called, I’ll resign to stand for Federal Parliament, if I win preselection”). Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald says Rhiannon “appears to be positioning herself to replace the party’s federal leader”. She may have her work cut out: the only time the Greens have won a seat in the state was when Kerry Nettle got in on One Nation preferences in 2001. Generally the problem has been that Labor are too strong in the state for the Greens to get ahead of their third candidate. Two scenarios for success suggest themselves: one involves the Greens gaining at least 5 per cent on the Coalition on the primary vote, which would raise the possibility of a result of three Labor, two Liberal, one Greens; the other is a double dissolution.

• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports the Coalition has been “desperate to find a high-profile candidate to take on Maxine McKew in the Sydney seat of Bennelong”, which it hopes “will be enough for Labor to consider transferring McKew to a safer seat”. It doesn’t sound like they’re having much luck: among those to have knocked back the offer are Kerry Chikarovski, former Opposition Leader and member for the locally situated state seat of Lane Cove, and Andrew Tink, former Shadow Police Minister and recent departee from state politics.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 61-39, recording no change from last week. Nothing on the stimulus package (Essential Research advises there will be a “truckload” of such data next week), but includes the usual leadership questions showing Rudd holding up and Turnbull going backwards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,047 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  6. [Speaker: “Sometimes people are out of loops”.]
    That was directed to Abbott and Madame Beehive.
    [I reckon bree could be alright looking Fins.]
    As good as Louise Pratt? 😀

  12. Mr X has got wonderful press in SA for his courageous stand. Incidentally, it is going to be a big help for Rudd and Wong in SA as well, who should be very grateful to X. Everyone’s very pleased with the outcome. And the Libs are totally irrelevant but their supporters already knew that.

  13. Finnigans, a question for you. What is the name of the MP who sits behind the honourable member for Bass, the guy who always looks like he’s got something in his mouth?

  16. [Headmistress Bishop is not in the House. Is she in the parliamentary library “writing” a speech?]
    Probably writing a new point of order.

  17. Evan14, dont ask me. i cant think straight with a pair of soulful eyes looking like that.

    Bree, not as low as a request for 3000 licks!!!!

  23. The member for Bass is sitting in the same spot where Kate Ellis used to sit!
    They always deliberately put a photogenic female MP where she can be seen on TV.

  27. The opposition are obviously in one big huff. If they’d just shut up for a bit and stop interrupting the PM would be able to finish and sit dow, Turnbull will probably go on for just as long in any case.

  30. Turnbull and his pals are stuck in a timewarp of the Howard years. As the erstwhile independent Member for Lyons said last night, “circumstances have changed”.

  31. Why are the Opposition so upset? They must have known this would be the end result. Admittedly it’s even worse for them now that the left (Green), right (FF) and centre (X) have all been accomodated by some smart Labor negotiating, which has made them look like obstructive extremists. They really need to grow up. They’ve got at least another fiour years to get the hang of being in Opposition and they look like they’re going to need every minute.

  36. The Great Coalition circus

    Ring leader- malcolm

    Barnaby the crazy clown

    Bronwyn the bearded lady

    Joe the fat man, how big can he get

  37. Link to Morgan here.

    http://www.roymorgan.com.au/

    [After a week of arguing in Parliament about a new stimulus bill ALP support is 51.5% (up 5%) compared to L-NP support 35.5% (down 2.5%). On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is 60% (up 4%), while support for the L-NP is 40% (down 4%).]

  41. You think Liberal MPs will be knocking back the money for new school infastructure?
    I doubt it! Although I presume no schools in the electorate of Wentworth need maintenance.

  45. This one will hurt Turnbull.

    [The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen slightly to 126 (up 6pts) with Australians more confident that Australia is “heading in the right direction” 54.5% (up 5%), compared to 28.5% (down 1%) that say Australia is “heading in the wrong direction.” This rebound is a strong sign for the Government.]

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4358/

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