Morgan: 60-40

Morgan’s second poll in consecutive weeks shows a big stimulus package bounce to Labor, albeit one following a dip in the earlier survey. Labor’s primary vote is up five points to 51.5 per cent, and its two-party lead has widened from 56-44 to 60-40. The Liberals are down 2.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent, and the Greens are steady on 8 per cent.

UPDATE (14/2): Today’s West Australian has a Westpoll survey of 403 respondents in WA showing federal Labor leading 55-45, after trailing 51-49 in October. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister has increased from 54-35 to 63-22. The result in WA at the 2007 election was about 53-47 in the Coalition’s favour.

• Today’s passage of the fiscal stimulus package through the Senate will probably take the heat out of early election speculation, but don’t let that stop you reading Antony Green‘s overview of the procedural and constitutional hurdles.

• This website has been dutifully reporting on Tasmania’s periodic upper house elections sice 2004, so it’s a great pleasure to report that this year’s will actually be interesting for a change. For this we can thank Harry Quick, formerly the maverick Labor member for the federal seat of Franklin, has announced he will nominate for Greens preselection to take on Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird in his Hobart seat of Derwent.

• Yesterday was the anniversary of the first sitting of the current parliament, which means the Electoral Commissioner has presumably conducted his determination of the number of House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to. As head counters will be aware, this will mean the initiation of redistribution processes in Queensland and New South Wales, which will respectively gain and lose a seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,154 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. [All taxes were paid. Media beat up.]

    But still, not a good look, and I can well imagine the outcry if it was a LABOR Finance person involved.

  2. “His 8000 word essay was not intellectually disciplined…”

    Gosh GP, I’ve seen five word sentences from you at Pollbludgers that aren’t intellectually disciplined. Give the man a break.

  3. GP 1150

    The really interesting question is whether all the taxes were paid before or after the “media beat up”. If it was after, it wasn’t a beat up 🙂

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