Morgan: 60-40

Morgan’s second poll in consecutive weeks shows a big stimulus package bounce to Labor, albeit one following a dip in the earlier survey. Labor’s primary vote is up five points to 51.5 per cent, and its two-party lead has widened from 56-44 to 60-40. The Liberals are down 2.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent, and the Greens are steady on 8 per cent.

UPDATE (14/2): Today’s West Australian has a Westpoll survey of 403 respondents in WA showing federal Labor leading 55-45, after trailing 51-49 in October. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister has increased from 54-35 to 63-22. The result in WA at the 2007 election was about 53-47 in the Coalition’s favour.

• Today’s passage of the fiscal stimulus package through the Senate will probably take the heat out of early election speculation, but don’t let that stop you reading Antony Green‘s overview of the procedural and constitutional hurdles.

• This website has been dutifully reporting on Tasmania’s periodic upper house elections sice 2004, so it’s a great pleasure to report that this year’s will actually be interesting for a change. For this we can thank Harry Quick, formerly the maverick Labor member for the federal seat of Franklin, has announced he will nominate for Greens preselection to take on Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird in his Hobart seat of Derwent.

• Yesterday was the anniversary of the first sitting of the current parliament, which means the Electoral Commissioner has presumably conducted his determination of the number of House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to. As head counters will be aware, this will mean the initiation of redistribution processes in Queensland and New South Wales, which will respectively gain and lose a seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,154 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. [ ABC comment articles appear to be popular with Young Libs & Staffers]

    How do you know that they are not just stirring the pot.

    *hides spoon behind back*

  2. [took Kev 12 months to turn the fortunes of the ALP around]

    Actually Labor was already in front in the polls when Rudd became Leader. As soon as he took over he surged to an even larger lead, which he has maintained ever since.

  3. [The most likely timing of the next election is August-October 2010. It took Kev 12 months to turn the fortunes of the ALP around so I’m guessing St Peter will challenge about 3-6 months after the Budget.]

    I thought this one particularly funny seeing “all” the polls bounced up to almost unprecedented levels immediately after Rudd took over the leadership.

    I can’t see any similar thing happening if Costello takes over. The Libs would have to be in a similar position to Labor in December 2006 for that to happen and that at present looks like nothing but a “pipe dream”.

  4. I recall that Joe “Hockey mom” Hockey was asked to ‘resell’ WorkChoices too. I wonder if he’ll do any better with trying to salvage the Libs’ economic reputation. He might introduce a fairness test here too – where the Libs’ will only take away some people’s $900.

  5. [How do you know that they are not just stirring the pot.]

    They are certainly doing that. The sad part is, is that they genuinely believe this stuff or are hopelessly deluded.

  6. [The most likely timing of the next election is August-October 2010. It took Kev 12 months to turn the fortunes of the ALP around so I’m guessing St Peter will challenge about 3-6 months after the Budget.]

    Yeah and as soon as the Costello ascension is through the Libs will be popular and cool again.

  7. This one “IS” totally deluded.

    [I think she did a good job as Opposition Treasurer and will have benefited from the experience. She showed loyalty and tenacity, and will be a better politician in future I have no doubt.

    I also think what is happening is that as Turnbull’s strategy is starting to show dividends both in the polls and in the governments reaction, the ambitions of others is starting to come to the fore. These are healthy signs for the opposition.

    The talent on the backbench is starting to get a small sniff and a taste for the inevitable.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/16/2492422.htm

  8. I wonder what they smoke?

    [Julie Bishop was a brilliant shadow treasurer who made Wayne Swan look clueless. If Bishop was managing our economy we’d have a balanced budget permanently. Australians know it is better to sit and wait and see than to rush in stimulating the economy just because of unemployment.]

  9. [Finns, Wasn’t the follow up “Julie’s turn to cry”?]

    GG, from Swanee with love:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsMONykezJM

    [The Peter Principle has been disproved by several studies since 1968. In well-run hierarchical organisations, an assessment is made of a person’s competence before they are promoted, and usually people are not promoted beyond their level of competence.]

    #1093 – and the GFC was caused by competence CEOs of Wall ST? You have been in Canberra for too long.

    Bree – yes, Peter is getting a bit cheesey for not being loved lately

  10. Bree, I’m interested… apart from Turnbull/Costello is there anyone else on the Opposition front bench you think should be removed or added?

  11. # 1108

    I am reminded of the ‘Infinite Improbability drive’ where something was so improbably as to be certain, which that person may have access to, finding a universe and reality where what they state is true.

    [The principle is that as its drive reaches infinite improbability, the ship passes simultaneously through every conceivable and non-conceivable point in every conceivable and non-conceivable universe (in other words, when one activates the Infinite Improbability Drive, the ship is literally everywhere at once). It is then possible to decide at which point you actually want to be when improbability levels decrease.]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nutrimatic_Drink_Dispenser#Ships_and_drives

  12. No 1050

    His 8000 word essay was not intellectually disciplined given that it wrongly accused the Liberal Party for creating the the global financial crisis. It is an exercise in intellectual fiction, not rigour.

  13. [Given the heavy responsibilities of the Shadow Finance Minister in the Senate, Senator Stephen Parry will take over responsibility as Manager of Opposition Business in the Senate in addition to his role as Opposition Whip.]

    Aaah… interesting. They couldn’t have found someone else?

  14. At least Hockey has some media status thanks to his time on Sunrise.

    If they chose Andrew Robb, he would’ve been as invisible as when Bob McMullan was shadow treasurer.

  15. Loose Lips Parry!

    “However, a number of reports emerged suggesting the intervention might cost as much support from voters concerned over maintenance of services at the Burnie hospital as it gained it in Devonport. Among those who thought so was the aforementioned Senator Stephen Parry; speaking off-the-record to The Australian’s Matt Price in a parliamentary elevator, Parry called the intervention a “disaster” and said the hospital “should have been closed”. Unfortunately for Parry, this was said within earshot of Kevin Rudd’s press secretary Lachlan Harris, providing the opposition with a pointed line of attack during that day’s question time”.

    http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/braddon.htm

  16. Another massive boo boo by the fantastic new LNP in Queensland.

    [

    Firstly, can I send out a warning to the whistleblower who dumped on the Queensland Police Service’s emergency call centre: stop reading now… head for the door… and run.

    The Opposition has just given you up to your bosses through some pretty woeful use of a Nikko pen.

    Lawrence Springborg’s staff issued a copy of a letter from a whistleblower who revealed that the emergency call centre phone went unanswered for eight minutes when a woman was being assaulted.

    The Borg read out the letter in Parliament, even the last sentence, which reads: “I do ask that my details not be released in any way to protect my employment.”

    A copy was given to the Police Minister who pledged: “I will take this document to give to the police service to examine.”

    Hopefully – for this particular whistleblower’s sake – the QPS investigators don’t discover what the entire parliamentary media gallery discovered. That if you hold the piece of paper up to the light you see straight through the blacked out sections to what’s underneath – the person’s full name, postal address, email address and mobile telephone number.

    Now that’s taking the hunt out of witch hunt.]

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/allpoints/2009/02/woops-oppositio.html

  17. Wait a minute… wasn’t Joe Hockey Shadow Finance Minister before? If so, how come he could be Manager of Opposition Business in the house, but Coonan will be too busy to be Senate manager?

  18. No 1126

    I agree. The question will be whether he will maintain a coherent and sustained attack on the government, rather than following in the imbecilic footsteps of his predecessor.

    He’ll also need to polish up his Lateline performances. He was a joke last week.

  19. [If so, how come he could be Manager of Opposition Business in the house, but Coonan will be too busy to be Senate manager?]
    Senate manager of opposition business is a much more demanding job.
    [I agree. The question will be whether he will maintain a coherent and sustained attack on the government, rather than following in the imbecilic footsteps of his predecessor.]
    I agree with Adam, the Liberal’s pro-unemployment policies are impossible to sell.

  20. The Finnigans
    #1035

    ‘1027 just knew th above foolish statemetn would be exposed as high flutin pretty b.ull , but geez not so literacy-wise so quick……a mere 24 hours later’

    “Amigo, please be gentle with Adam, he has not been in Canberra for long enough.”

    I was trying awful so hard to be

    NOW this:
    ‘Ms Bishop has become an object of ridicule from Labor backbenchers in the house. Each time she rises, the Labor MPs ask: “Who wrote that?” ‘

    who wrote that ? Amigo , I too ask mysef who just could write that…sure not Julie

  21. G’day Vera

    thought Joe & Ruddy got on reasonable well , think did Kokoda trail as twosome , but now with joe’s promoton it will be 100% completely no holds barred so I don’t actualy mind Joe , but perhaps this new job may test

  22. bloomin’ heck dogma you nearly made me fall offa my chair 🙂 i’d love for Joe to wear those Shrek horns/ears? in OT. His popularity would skyrocket, might even give Kev a run for his money.

  23. hiya Ron
    yes I remember seeing footage of Joe and Kev frollicking in a creek together when they did the Kokoda trek, I think Joe might even had picked Kev up at one stage. they seemed to be having a good time laughing like a pair of kids.

  24. Bree, as Maxwell Smart would say: “sorry about that”. your man was apparently offered a front bench job and said NO, as well as NO to the Leadership. Sadly, your man just aint got the balls

  25. Love that Peter Principal

    “If they are, their incompetence is soon detected and they are moved out of that position. Organisations which do not follow these practices fail to compete with those that do”

    Well th whole Banking system failed that test , thats theory of just theory
    In reality in oz in reel business world , management ar always concious of Peter for all promotions espec exec ones , because dificult often to theory judge how someone will deel with greater pressure & responsability up th ladder Mistakes always made sometimes , smart exec’s act quick , othrs too slow and some never at all

    Now Julie was a pre Peter Principal …she was never going to make it
    .
    vera ! “I think Joe might even had picked Kev up at one stage. “..geez if he’d dropped him too hard , what wuld course of history hav been….so we do afteral hav Joe to thank for something

  26. To be fair, I thought Bishop made a quite dignified exit. She obviously knows nothing about economics, but then neither do Turnbull and the people making up Liberal policy and they’re still not taking the fall.

  27. Socrates
    Posted Monday, February 16, 2009 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    “To be fair, I thought Bishop made a quite dignified exit. She obviously knows nothing about economics”

    Exactly , she was th problam , wrong unqualified person …before worrying about whether th ‘message’ is any good you actualy get someone who knows econamic portfolio Julie didn’t thats why she was a problem

    A smart pollie with econamic skills can at least look credible , but she was a complete liability #1027

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