Essential Research: 61-39

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady on 61-39. As promised, there is also voluminous material on attitudes to the economy and stimulus package:

• 62 per cent are “concerned” about job security over the coming year, although 60 per cent are “confident” Australia can withstand the crisis.

• The opposition’s approve-disapprove split on handling of the crisis has widened from 31-35 to 35-44, while the government’s is little changed.

• Labor is more trusted to handle the crisis than the Coalition by 55-25.

• A somewhat unwieldy question about which leader’s approach to stimulus is preferable has Rudd leading Turnbull 51-33.

• Opinion is also gauged on five individual aspects of the package, with free ceiling insulation rated significantly lower than the rest.

• Perhaps most importantly, Peter Costello outscores Malcolm Turnbull in a head-to-head preferred Liberal leader contest 37-26.

What’s more:

• Last weekend’s Sunday Telegraph reported that Malcolm Turnbull is supporting preselection moves against former NSW Opposition Leader Peter Debnam in the blue-ribbon Vaucluse, which is wholly contained within Turnbull’s federal seat of Wentworth. Those named as possible successors are “restaurateur Peter Doyle, barrister Mark Speakman, UNSW Deputy Chancellor Gabrielle Upton, barrister Arthur Moses and former Optus spokesman Paul Fletcher”. Debnam quit shadow cabinet last May in protest against his party’s support for the government’s attempt at electricity privatisation, and was left out in December’s reshuffle despite reportedly angling for the Shadow Treasurer position. Also rated as a possible starter is Joe Hockey, who might have other ideas now he’s Shadow Treasurer. Alex Mitchell writes in Crikey that Hockey might also be keeping an eye on Jillian Skinner’s seat of North Shore, and muses that Tony Abbott might also consider the state premiership a more achievable objective than a return to government federally.

• Former Howard government minister Richard Alston has nominated for a Liberal federal electoral conference position, which is reportedly a gambit in the keenly fought contest to replace retiring Petro Georgiou in the blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. Described by The Age as a “patron” of long-standing hopeful Josh Frydenberg, Alston will attempt to gain the position at the expense of incumbent Paula Davey, who is associated with faction of Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu – which would prefer that the seat go to Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam.

• Yesterday’s Sunday Times reported that long-serving Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri has been sounded out by Labor as a possible successor to Jim McGinty as state member for Fremantle. The report raised the prospect of McGinty going sooner rather than later, thereby initiating what could prove a very interesting by-election in the Poll Bludger’s home electorate. While Fremantle has been in Labor hands since 1924, McGinty received an early shock on election night when it appeared Greens candidate Adele Carles might overtake the Liberals and possibly win the seat on their preferences. Carles was ultimately excluded at the second last count with 28.6 per cent of the vote to the Liberal candidate’s 32.1 per cent.

• Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett rates himself “extremely pleased” that Winnaleah-based school principal Brian Wightman will seek Labor preselection for Bass at the March 2010 state election. Labor narrowly failed to win a third seat in Bass at the 2006 election, being pipped at the post by the Greens for a result of two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. The likelihood of a swing against Labor next time means Labor is all but certain to again win two seats: one seems certain to stay with former federal MP Michelle O’Byrne, while the other is being vacated by retiring member Jim Cox. Also in the field will be CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean, reckoned by The Mercury to be a “star candidate” despite having been “condemned by many diehard members of the Labor Party in 2004 when he backed Liberal Prime Minister John Howard over Labor’s then-federal opposition leader Mark Latham”.

• The Hobart Mercury talks of upper house disquiet over Tasmanian government legislation for fixed terms, a draft of which is “currently out for consultation”. The government wants early elections for the House of Assembly to be allowed if the Legislative Council does so much as block a bill the Assembly has deemed to be “significant”. This sounds very much like South Australia’s “bill of special importance” exception, which I gather has never been invoked since it was introduced in 1985. Independent Council President Sue Smith says there is concern that “the provision could be used as a threat to pass controversial legislation or as an excuse to go to an early election”. Another exception, according to The Mercury, is that “the Lower House would also go to an election if the Upper House blocks supply of funds for a budget”. This seems to suggest that 1975-style supply obstruction would produce an instant election, though I suspect it’s not quite as simple as that. Nonetheless, Greens leader Nick McKim has “foreshadowed an amendment by which the Upper House would also have to go to the polls if it blocked budget supply”. This would be a significant development for a chamber that currently never dissolves, as its members rotate annually through a six-year cycle. Less contentiously, the legislation also allows for an early election if the lower house passes a no confidence motion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,646 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

Comments Page 33 of 33
1 … 32 33

  1. No 1593 very true…

    But still most people arent interested in politics or understand how it all works (they’ve never been taught about it at school) so apathy must create swinging voters too as they’ll vote for whoever can give them the most…

  2. Bree it isn’t an oxymoron. Don’t be so idiotic.

    Howard arriving in Tasmania to cheers from the CFMEU in 2004 will long be remembered as a big coup for the Liberals.

  5. Gary, I was just pointing out that federal Labor will get wiped out in QLD if they go to ANY federal election, with a pro-republican stance. QLD will never accept an Australian republic.

  6. [What,if any, principles do the libs have to hang on to?
    I would suspect self interest!]
    This was the refrain against Labor during that period “they don’t stand for anything”, “what do they believe in?”

    Well, governments tend to win without having very complicated over arching philosophies. Sometimes being anti-something is just as powerful as being for something.
    [What I want to know is if unions are so tightly attached to Labor, why 30% of union members are Liberal voters?]
    I would speculate this way. Perhaps they are conservative unionists, who don’t like modern Labor’s social and / or environmental agenda?

    You know, like the CFMEU types who lauded Howard in 2004 because of his pro logging policies.

  7. [Howard arriving in Tasmania to cheers from the CFMEU in 2004 will long be remembered as a big coup for the Liberals]

    And allowed the labor party to wake up to itself
    🙂

  8. [PETER CAVE: The battle over the safe Federal Liberal seat of Wentworth in Sydney’s exclusive eastern suburbs has gone from spectacle to farce today, with the Federal Opposition making merry with a copy of a letter signed by Malcolm Turnbull inviting a left-wing union to join the Point Piper Branch of the Liberal Party.’]

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2003/s966992.htm 14/10/2003

    SHOCK HORROR… will GP, Bree and Glen do the whole lynch mob thing now?

  9. No 1601

    Political education is very poor at the school level. At the very least, students should be learning about the philosophies which underpin each party to give them a solid foundation upon which to form their own political views. Political parties don’t push for this type of reform because it suits them to have a constant stream of indoctrinated rusted-ons to swell their respective bases.

  10. [According to the sitting Member for the safe Liberal seat of Wentworth, Peter King, his arch-preselection opponent Malcolm Turnbull once harboured ambitions of leading the Australian Labor Party into government.]

    We have another Brenda Nelson on our hands!!

    😀

  11. [MARK LATHAM: Does the Minister still believe that it’s inappropriate for trade unions to be affiliated to political parties? How then does he explain this letter sent by Mr Malcolm Turnbull to the national office of the Miscellaneous Workers Union asking them to join the Point Piper Branch of the Liberal Party? ]

    lol

  17. I agree bob1234, It was huge mistake to replace Peter King with Turnbull in 2004. Turnbull wanted Howard to lose in 2007 so that he could lead the Liberal Party.

  18. Two Liberal leaders in a row, Nelson and Turnbull, are ALPers in Lib clothing. What does that say about the Liberal Party and their choice of leader?

    Rather disturbing really.

  19. No 1616

    There’s nothing you can say except to condemn Turnbull for being so aloof to invite a working-class union to join the branch of one Australia’s wealthiest suburbs. I’m not opposed to unions, but clearly if they’re political philosophy is incongruent with the Liberal Party, it makes no sense to court them for membership. Futile and embarrassing.

  20. [Turnbull wanted Howard to lose in 2007 so that he could lead the Liberal Party.]

    Now you’re getting it Bree.

    ps I think GP really really likes Turnbull,you and I both know he is no good for the libs,only howie (or a clone of him) will do.

  21. [But still most people arent interested in politics or understand how it all works (they’ve never been taught about it at school)]
    I wish we had voluntary voting for this very reason. 😐
    [Gary, I was just pointing out that federal Labor will get wiped out in QLD if they go to ANY federal election, with a pro-republican stance. QLD will never accept an Australian republic.]
    So it will just hold a referendum in a non-election year.
    [Political education is very poor at the school level.]
    And in some uni faculties – I was asked what “left wing” meant when tutoring a second year uni Communications class.
    [Political parties don’t push for this type of reform because it suits them to have a constant stream of indoctrinated rusted-ons to swell their respective bases.]
    Well I don’t know if teaching specifically about political ideology is important (it is actually a pretty complicated issue). But I think we should more generally have a better education system, because better educated people tend to be better informed about everything, not just politics.

    One reform could be to make it compulsory for everyone to learn about the constitution say in year 11.

  22. Costello will retire and the Libs will be stuck with Turnbull, or Costello will assume the leadership, fail miserably, and the Libs will be stuck with Turnbull. Can’t wait to see GP, Bree, and Glen’s dissolutionment with the Liberal Party when that day comes.

  23. No 1618

    Turnbull is not an ALP member in disguise. He is simply a wet/moderate. Plenty of those in the Liberal Party. One thing’s for sure, he won’t gain any votes by attacking the government from the left.

  24. [Turnbull wanted Howard to lose in 2007 so that he could lead the Liberal Party.]
    Smart guy! He realised very early on that Costello wouldn’t run.

  25. Very true again, bob1234 @ 1618

    With Turnbull as the Liberal leader, Rudd is looking like a conservative and the Coalition is looking like left-wingers. No wonder Labor wants Costello to resign from politics.

  26. GP:

    [According to the sitting Member for the safe Liberal seat of Wentworth, Peter King, his arch-preselection opponent Malcolm Turnbull once harboured ambitions of leading the Australian Labor Party into government.]

  27. [Costello will retire and the Libs will be stuck with Turnbull, or Costello will assume the leadership, fail miserably, and the Libs will be stuck with Turnbull.]
    I think this is exactly right.

    Who will be the “generational change” candidate? You know, the 10 year younger person that runs saying the party needs to move on from the Costello / Turnbull years.

    Tony Smith? Greg Hunt?

  28. [With Turnbull as the Liberal leader, Rudd is looking like a conservative and the Coalition is looking like left-wingers.]

    HAHAHAHAH you’re kidding aren’t you. The Turnbull Libs remain to the right of Rudd Labor. If you think otherwise… well… no wonder even GP tells you to shut up.

  29. [He is simply a wet/moderate. Plenty of those in the Liberal Party.]
    Yeah, like Glen!
    [is arch-preselection opponent Malcolm Turnbull once harboured ambitions of leading the Australian Labor Party into government]
    Turnbull asked Keating to make him a Senator for NSW when Graham Richardson retired in 1994.

  31. [Well I don’t know if teaching specifically about political ideology is important (it is actually a pretty complicated issue). But I think we should more generally have a better education system, because better educated people tend to be better informed about everything, not just politics.

    One reform could be to make it compulsory for everyone to learn about the constitution say in year 11.]

    I tend to agree. I’m not to fussed about tertiary education, but certainly there needs to be much improved civic education at primary and secondary levels of schooling. It is an absolute embarrassment that students leave school with not even a basic understanding of our constitution, let alone the philosophical underpinnings of the two major parties of our political system. The Americans have at least got that right – as far as I’m aware there is pretty decent civics and history teaching in primary and secondary schooling.

  32. [, but certainly there needs to be much improved civic education at primary and secondary levels of schooling. ]
    Did you have to do any subject like this at high school? It was compulsory to do a topic called “Australian studies”. But since it was a compulsory topic it was really, really, really dumbed down so that it was easy to get a good grade.

    For example, I remember we had to learn that we HAD a constitution, but we didn’t read it, or learn about how it was made, and what it actually all meant!

    We learnt in the most basic terms what parliament does (make laws DUH!) but nothing about political ideology (other than the fact there are different parties that tend to think different things)

    It as all really trivial really.

  33. “Turnbull asked Keating to make him a Senator for NSW when Graham Richardson retired in 1994”

    I remember that. It actually first made the news headlines about a few months after the 1993 federal election.

  34. I say it again:

    Two Liberal leaders in a row, Nelson and Turnbull, are ALPers in Lib clothing. What does that say about the Liberal Party and their choice of leader?

    Rather disturbing really.

  35. No 1632

    I don’t recall doing such a subject, though I attended The King’s School and private schools can occasionally do things differently. That said, they largely followed the NSW Board of Studies curriculum and I really can’t recall any meaningful civics subject apart from a minor mention in a Year 10 history course. Whatever I’ve learnt about politics is through my own volition, which is fine, but it would have been nice to have a better grasp of the basics at school.

  37. [Two Liberal leaders in a row, Nelson and Turnbull, are ALPers in Lib clothing. What does that say about the Liberal Party and their choice of leader?]
    I was thinking of this today, major party politicians who either defected, or joined different parties to their parents.

    Lib to Labor: John Dawkins, Peter Walsh, Neville Wran, Don Dunstan, Mia Handshin
    Labor to Lib: Brendan Nelson, Reg Withers, Michael Towke

    Any others?

  38. Generic Person
    Posted Wednesday, February 18, 2009 at 11:59 pm | Permalink
    #1592

    Ron “guarantees Royalists scare attacks”

    “Um, ShowsOn has been hysterically positing the false notion that the Queen can strike down our laws. The scare campaign is coming from republicans, not monarchists.”

    so he mixed up th Queen and th Queens PRE approved GG representative , fact is a foreign citizen (th Queen) pre approved representave th GG ‘can’ sack a democraticaly elected govts and reject HOR/Senate pased Bills

    IF those reserve powers ar to remain , i want an Australian Head of State solely pre approved by Australins as well as appointed by Austalians , not a foreigner

    AND it is THOSE reserve powers that IF sought to be codified at same time as a yes/no vote (I’ll later quantify) on a Republic that royalists wuld run a scare/disinformation campaign….. on causing votr anxiety/confusion & a pro status quo ie monarchy sentament in voters You know that Generic person , and unfortunately you’ve got some Republicons here following your bait wanting a complicatedd pleb/Ref put in one go ….ie a howard 1999 version 11 to defeat
    a Republic….its almost your last defense , division , confusion & complexaty

  40. Shows
    when we grew up there was,possibly, a school council
    Now most schools have aparliament,with elected ministers.the syllabus includes studies on gvt and political history-admittedly an overview

    GP
    do the scout handbook and his religious education worksheets (thanks nana 🙁 ..) count as union handbooks?

  41. [.the syllabus includes studies on gvt and political history-admittedly an overview]
    Is it compulsory? The Australian Studies topic I did was compulsory, but they had to make it easy else parents would complain that their child had been forced to do a hard subject they didn’t want to do! 😀

  43. [Family First’s preferencing agreement with the Coalition (Australia) in the 2004 federal election led Barnaby Joyce, the National senate candidate for Queensland, to publicly slam the party the day before the election, calling them “the lunatic Right”, and stating that “these are not the sort of people you do preference deals with”.’
    Barnaby Joyce repudiated the views of Family First? Yet Costello sucked up to the same mob?

    That tells me something…

  44. [Is it compulsory? The Australian Studies topic I did was compulsory]

    I think it is-though it is a tad late to wake jack to confirm
    🙂

    Your assertion that people vote the way therer parents vote is WronG (hope i got that right)

    My oldies voted lab then lib ( unfortunately howie suckered them)-me at the grand old age of 43 first voted -LIBERAL. then I had the reverse lobotomy 🙂

    The better half -rabid libs until daughter sacked under worstchoices- now luv kev and tell everyone how deluded they were to vote for howard.most of the extended ‘blueys’ are now died in the wool ‘reddies”

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 33 of 33
1 … 32 33