Essential Research: 61-39

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady on 61-39. As promised, there is also voluminous material on attitudes to the economy and stimulus package:

• 62 per cent are “concerned” about job security over the coming year, although 60 per cent are “confident” Australia can withstand the crisis.

• The opposition’s approve-disapprove split on handling of the crisis has widened from 31-35 to 35-44, while the government’s is little changed.

• Labor is more trusted to handle the crisis than the Coalition by 55-25.

• A somewhat unwieldy question about which leader’s approach to stimulus is preferable has Rudd leading Turnbull 51-33.

• Opinion is also gauged on five individual aspects of the package, with free ceiling insulation rated significantly lower than the rest.

• Perhaps most importantly, Peter Costello outscores Malcolm Turnbull in a head-to-head preferred Liberal leader contest 37-26.

What’s more:

• Last weekend’s Sunday Telegraph reported that Malcolm Turnbull is supporting preselection moves against former NSW Opposition Leader Peter Debnam in the blue-ribbon Vaucluse, which is wholly contained within Turnbull’s federal seat of Wentworth. Those named as possible successors are “restaurateur Peter Doyle, barrister Mark Speakman, UNSW Deputy Chancellor Gabrielle Upton, barrister Arthur Moses and former Optus spokesman Paul Fletcher”. Debnam quit shadow cabinet last May in protest against his party’s support for the government’s attempt at electricity privatisation, and was left out in December’s reshuffle despite reportedly angling for the Shadow Treasurer position. Also rated as a possible starter is Joe Hockey, who might have other ideas now he’s Shadow Treasurer. Alex Mitchell writes in Crikey that Hockey might also be keeping an eye on Jillian Skinner’s seat of North Shore, and muses that Tony Abbott might also consider the state premiership a more achievable objective than a return to government federally.

• Former Howard government minister Richard Alston has nominated for a Liberal federal electoral conference position, which is reportedly a gambit in the keenly fought contest to replace retiring Petro Georgiou in the blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. Described by The Age as a “patron” of long-standing hopeful Josh Frydenberg, Alston will attempt to gain the position at the expense of incumbent Paula Davey, who is associated with faction of Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu – which would prefer that the seat go to Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam.

• Yesterday’s Sunday Times reported that long-serving Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri has been sounded out by Labor as a possible successor to Jim McGinty as state member for Fremantle. The report raised the prospect of McGinty going sooner rather than later, thereby initiating what could prove a very interesting by-election in the Poll Bludger’s home electorate. While Fremantle has been in Labor hands since 1924, McGinty received an early shock on election night when it appeared Greens candidate Adele Carles might overtake the Liberals and possibly win the seat on their preferences. Carles was ultimately excluded at the second last count with 28.6 per cent of the vote to the Liberal candidate’s 32.1 per cent.

• Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett rates himself “extremely pleased” that Winnaleah-based school principal Brian Wightman will seek Labor preselection for Bass at the March 2010 state election. Labor narrowly failed to win a third seat in Bass at the 2006 election, being pipped at the post by the Greens for a result of two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. The likelihood of a swing against Labor next time means Labor is all but certain to again win two seats: one seems certain to stay with former federal MP Michelle O’Byrne, while the other is being vacated by retiring member Jim Cox. Also in the field will be CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean, reckoned by The Mercury to be a “star candidate” despite having been “condemned by many diehard members of the Labor Party in 2004 when he backed Liberal Prime Minister John Howard over Labor’s then-federal opposition leader Mark Latham”.

• The Hobart Mercury talks of upper house disquiet over Tasmanian government legislation for fixed terms, a draft of which is “currently out for consultation”. The government wants early elections for the House of Assembly to be allowed if the Legislative Council does so much as block a bill the Assembly has deemed to be “significant”. This sounds very much like South Australia’s “bill of special importance” exception, which I gather has never been invoked since it was introduced in 1985. Independent Council President Sue Smith says there is concern that “the provision could be used as a threat to pass controversial legislation or as an excuse to go to an early election”. Another exception, according to The Mercury, is that “the Lower House would also go to an election if the Upper House blocks supply of funds for a budget”. This seems to suggest that 1975-style supply obstruction would produce an instant election, though I suspect it’s not quite as simple as that. Nonetheless, Greens leader Nick McKim has “foreshadowed an amendment by which the Upper House would also have to go to the polls if it blocked budget supply”. This would be a significant development for a chamber that currently never dissolves, as its members rotate annually through a six-year cycle. Less contentiously, the legislation also allows for an early election if the lower house passes a no confidence motion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,646 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

Comments Page 32 of 33
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  1. How about a new Act of Succession? The heir of Queen Elizabeth II of Australia is now all Australian Citizens (co-monarchs). Reserve powers would be exercised by a regiscite.
    It is a bit Ben Elton, but it might work…

  4. Shows on – That’s exactly my point, isn’t it reasonable to expect a successful vote of no- confidence to be won on a very narrow margin, possbly only 1 vote?

    Does winning a vote of no-confidence (even by one vote) allow the winner to front up to the G-G and say ” I know I’m not a minister but have the confidence of the house, not the other guy, so lets have an election thank you very much

  7. [ShowsOn, you’re talking like an ignorant idiot.]
    there’s no need for that.I happen to agree that is valid-” who’s to say the G.G. wouldn’t trust or believe them?”

    this is a serious discusiion and a lot of us (I presume) would like to now the truth about how we are ruled and the rules therein.

  8. [ShowsOn, you’re talking like an ignorant idiot.]
    Why thank you so much.

    I simply mean what ifthe no confidence vote was caused by people crossing the floor, and who’s to say they couldn’t change their voted later, thus causing the newly appointed government to fall again?

    What if the situation is so unstable that keeping the current Premier or P.M. is considered by the Governor / G.G. to be the better option. Surely the Governor reserves that right.

  9. One has to admit, our head of state comes pretty cheap. And in Australia it only has to be a person who knows when to say ok enough of this shit, call an election.

  10. [Shows on – That’s exactly my point, isn’t it reasonable to expect a successful vote of no- confidence to be won on a very narrow margin, possbly only 1 vote?]
    I’m glad that we made the so point, but it seems to be the point of ignorance and idiocy according to Sir Adam Kerr.
    [this is a serious discusiion and a lot of us (I presume) would like to now the truth about how we are ruled and the rules therein.]
    I agree, I thought this was a more serious discussion than hammering G.P. over the stimulus package.

  12. It’s very difficult to conduct a discussion through this less-than-perfect medium with people who don’t understand the basic principles of the Westminster system, and who seem to have no interest in learning to do so.

    It’s evident that I’m getting grumpy so that’s all for tonight.

  13. [It’s evident that I’m getting grumpy so that’s all for tonight.]
    we still love you adam
    😉

    Ps any links to help me resolve my ignorance perchance. seriously

  15. [with people who don’t understand the basic principles of the Westminster system, and who seem to have no interest in learning to do so.]
    I assume this was directed at me. I think I do know the basics, but what happens if a confidence motion is decided by one vote is not “the basics”.

  16. And in an odd link with Australia. When Sydney’s Queen Victoria Building was being renovated, they were hunting around for a second hand statute of Queen Victoria. They asked the Irish who said “Sure, we’ve got lots.” Like asking Russians for a second hand Marx or Lenin.

    When they were looking for a statue there was a par or two in Column 8 in Granny asking if anyone knew where to find one. I did as I had worked near the Royal Hospital Kilmainham and knew there was a back courtyard full of Queen Vics and vice-regal luminaries. I rang up and told them and the rest is history as it were. I think the one that was given to Sydney was the big one that used to grace the main courtyard of the RHK.

  18. Anyway back to the rabble incarnate

    [In another show of division, Liberal senator Cory Bernardi has accused the man Mr Turnbull appointed as a key strategist on Monday – Christopher Pyne – of being a political chameleon.

    He said Mr Pyne once told him he would have joined the ALP “if I lived in a Labor seat”. ]

    I said they would eventually turn on each other

    Tres Delicious

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25075269-662,00.html

  21. Gusface
    Posted Wednesday, February 18, 2009 at 10:29 pm | Permalink
    #1502

    Ron “lets get that ok first , …ie our President approved by oz alone with all existing GG powers remaining as is , before complacating questons of those reserve poweres & th method of Presidnts election”

    Gusface “couldnt agree more”

    My point is proven by 300 posts of Republicons arguing with republicons ….and th monarchist Generic Person think howard pulled this trck once , maybe they’ll be foolish enugh to fall for it again

    If you Republiconsda r arguing how do you think Mr Battler middle voter is going to react….play safe , vote no and keep statuis quo fist vote was lost by such poor “divided republicon” views , forget intelectaualism..kiss principal

  23. [Anyway back to the rabble incarnate]
    LOL! 😀
    [I said they would eventually turn on each other]
    Choice quote:
    [Last night, Mr Pyne strongly denied the allegation. “It is utterly preposterous. I was handing out (Lib) how-to-votes before I was 10 years old,” he told the Herald Sun. ]
    What a terrible image, 9 year old kid handing out how to vote cards for ANY political party…

  26. GG

    Those were the days when one read the SMH as it was the journal of record. A handsome newspaper it actually had news in it. I have not bought the paper at all since Carlton got the bullet and rarely even visit the web site.

  27. All this otherwise interesting discussion of republican models and reserve powers is nevertheless moot. Mr Rudd knows that the quickest way to lose a swag of seats in QLD would be to push a republic or some similar nonsense, and he is too clever to do it.

  28. [Mr Rudd knows that the quickest way to lose a swag of seats in QLD would be to push a republic or some similar nonsense, and he is too clever to do it.]
    Do you mean ever, or just not at the next election?

    Even Howard wasn’t brave enough to hold the referendum at the same time as an election.

  29. Gus @ 1568,

    [
    In another show of division, Liberal senator Cory Bernardi has accused the man Mr Turnbull appointed as a key strategist on Monday – Christopher Pyne – of being a political chameleon.

    He said Mr Pyne once told him he would have joined the ALP “if I lived in a Labor seat”.

    I said they would eventually turn on each other

    Tres Delicious
    ]

    Ah that it is 😀 ….. Crikey, btw, also said today that the Libs (when they implode, historically) tend to do so at a rate of knots 😉 ……. Btw, fasten your seatbelts next week, Parliament next sits 23rd to 26th of this month 😉 ….. Betcha after today/tonight, Swannie will nail Hockey to the mast of the Libs sinking ship 😀

  30. ShowsOn @ 1573,

    My two youngest are 8 and 11. They fully understand what side their bread is buttered on and would happily hand out HTV for any Labor candidate if that opportunity arose. They have actually helped in letterbox stuffing for Labor candidates in the K07 campaign too.

  32. Juliem
    from memory i said that the libs would turn on each other like sharks (self interest an all) way back pre-election time.

    The only part yet to come true is for them to split into 3 distinct entities (larry,curly and mo)
    🙁

    But i am confident they wont let me down
    🙂

  33. GP, back in the Bush Senior administration, I indoctrinated my dog. She’s no longer with me but I taught her to bark when ever I said “Bush”. She was very good at it too 😀 …….. Oh, we teach them (kids) since before they can crawl/walk about which footy club to barrack for so no good reason for them to not also understand politics at an early age 🙂

  34. [from memory i said that the libs would turn on each other like sharks (self interest an all) way back pre-election time.]
    Go back to 2003 and 2005, and the media was talking about Labor in the same way. Will they govern ever again? etc

    The Liberals are worse than Labor in opposition, but I still think ‘The Media’ (I hate that term) likes a good “opposition in disarray” story.

    I’m not saying the Libs don’t have problems, they will have them so long as Costello is in parliament.

  35. 1584,

    [
    but I still think ‘The Media’ (I hate that term) likes a good “opposition in disarray” story.
    ]

    Unless you are David Spears 😀 …… night from Perth

  36. [You’re indoctrinating them at such young ages! Shame!]

    fair warning GP, my eldest ,12, was elected school captain last year. he is more politically aware thanks to howie-your side just didnt get it that EVERY ozzie was affected by worstchoices.
    he demanded to letterbox for the local lab MP btw
    “as he wanted to know what to do the right way for when he gets into parliament”

  38. No 1583

    All I would say is that if they happen to decide, at a future date, that they prefer the Liberal Party, that you’d not attempt to change their minds.

  39. Adam in Canberra
    Posted Wednesday, February 18, 2009 at 11:11 pm | Permalink
    #1562

    “It’s very difficult to conduct a discussion through this less-than-perfect medium with people who don’t understand the basic principles of the Westminster system, and who seem to have no interest in learning to do so.”

    Well with numerous posts i’ve made none of my points hav been constitutionaly chalenged…thereby makingh me a deemed “understand the basic principles of the Westminster”

    So what i wuld say to you is your desire to codify however intent , guarantees Royalists scare attacks and division amongst Republicons over such reserve powers and a President’s electon options….your NON gradualast aproach will result in a Republicon plebiscite failing , and your belief you ar right without consideraton is dmonstatd by how you poorly treated less “understand the basic principles of the Westminster” people than I…and there republicon allies , and heavens negativ reaction for middle voters seeing such Republicon division

  42. [guarantees Royalists scare attacks]

    Um, ShowsOn has been hysterically positing the false notion that the Queen can strike down our laws. The scare campaign is coming from republicans, not monarchists.

  43. [All I would say is that if they happen to decide, at a future date, that they prefer the Liberal Party, that you’d not attempt to change their minds.]
    It’s doubtful. Most people vote the same as their parents. Most people who are consistent swing voters had a Labor and a Liberal voting parent.

  44. [Go back to 2003 and 2005, and the media was talking about Labor in the same way. Will they govern ever again? etc]
    shows the big difference is that at least labor had some principles to hold onto in the ‘dark days’

    What,if any, principles do the libs have to hang on to?
    I would suspect self interest!

    Menzies party is no more.teh rabbit is out of the hat and no-one is going to stuff it back in.

    Not even costello

  47. whilst hubby {a career soldier} was in Vietnam, with his blessing i was in the anti vietnam marches pushing my pusher full of kids, so i guess you could say they were labor rabble at a very young age, John felt strongly we shouldnt be there and while he was proud of fighting under the UN banner elsewhere he was livid about conscription and Vietnam, dunno what he would say about Iraq—actually yes i do and it wouldnt be printable, a lot of regulars felt the same but were constrained by their oaths to follow the orders of the government.

  49. [shows the big difference is that at least labor had some principles to hold onto in the ‘dark days’]

    Oh please. The then opposition was in an equally perilous position and didn’t know where it stood. The Labor party only won office by saying their economic platform was exactly the same as Howard’s (which Rudd later repudiated in the Monthly) + their opposition to workchoices.

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