Morgan’s second poll in consecutive weeks shows a big stimulus package bounce to Labor, albeit one following a dip in the earlier survey. Labor’s primary vote is up five points to 51.5 per cent, and its two-party lead has widened from 56-44 to 60-40. The Liberals are down 2.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent, and the Greens are steady on 8 per cent.
UPDATE (14/2): Today’s West Australian has a Westpoll survey of 403 respondents in WA showing federal Labor leading 55-45, after trailing 51-49 in October. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister has increased from 54-35 to 63-22. The result in WA at the 2007 election was about 53-47 in the Coalition’s favour.
• Today’s passage of the fiscal stimulus package through the Senate will probably take the heat out of early election speculation, but don’t let that stop you reading Antony Green‘s overview of the procedural and constitutional hurdles.
• This website has been dutifully reporting on Tasmania’s periodic upper house elections sice 2004, so it’s a great pleasure to report that this year’s will actually be interesting for a change. For this we can thank Harry Quick, formerly the maverick Labor member for the federal seat of Franklin, has announced he will nominate for Greens preselection to take on Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird in his Hobart seat of Derwent.
• Yesterday was the anniversary of the first sitting of the current parliament, which means the Electoral Commissioner has presumably conducted his determination of the number of House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to. As head counters will be aware, this will mean the initiation of redistribution processes in Queensland and New South Wales, which will respectively gain and lose a seat.
Turnbull is stuffed.
And the public hate Costello.
$42 billion: the cost of a new thread.
Is 3047 posts in a thread a record?
Maybe the Morgan is an outlier. What have Labor done lately for the working families of Australia?
This week will go down in this Nation’s history as the week where the GFCs were really tackled:
GFC – Global Financial Crisis
GFC – Great Fire Crisis
and it was the Labor Govt that tackled these GFCs.
GFC – Great for Costello
So that’s Morgan out of the way. The Libs have to be worried about the primary levels at the moment. Who’s actually polling over the next few days and how likely are we to see further carnage to the Coalition primary in Essential and Newspoll??
Loved the headline.
[Stimulus Package gives “shot in the arm” to Rudd Government]
At 56/44 it was not as though Labor were exactly desperate for a boost in the polls. I imagine it will be gratefully accepted though as will the potentially higher figures in the the next Neilsen and Newspoll.
Galaxy might come out with one shortly too which should twist the knife into Turnbull a bit more. I’m looking forward to the next PPM figures which are fairly certain to show Turnbull’s gamble to have totally backfired.
Nelson’s lowest PPM rating could be under threat.
[Great work Mr X…a courageous act that has the potential to do more for the Coorong and Lower Lakes than decades of useless Labor/Liberal Governments!]
This is the sentiment of the vast majority of posts on the Tiser site, which incidentally is over 400 posts long, a record except for when Mark Ricciuto retired!
From the previous thread which I found interesting this time.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen slightly to 126 (up 6pts) with Australians more confident that Australia is “heading in the right direction” 54.5% (up 5%), compared to 28.5% (down 1%) that say Australia is “heading in the wrong direction.” This rebound is a strong sign for the Government.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4358/
Nielsen is apparently in the field – and about time might I say.
Possum, they’re polling now or have polled and are about to release one?
I support increased investment for the murray, but I don’t think it should have been in the stimulus package. It’s an economic stimulus package, not an environmental/save the murray package.
The Greens figure remained static at 8%.
After the past two days events, there could be an increase in their primary in subsequent polls at the expense of the Coalition.
The Greens might even outpoll the Libs on better economic managers. lol
bob1234
It will stimulate the economy. There’s a lot for water infrastructure as irrigation and storm-water capture.
On the bushfires, the Victorian Government looks like it might have a big problem for not buying the early warning bushfire system for $20M. It’s always easy to be wise in hindsight though.
Can someone tell me when the House of Reps will resume?
If the Liberals have been constructive, they might have got a few amendments themselves. This blind obstructionism might have boosted Turnball’s ego and got the right wing shock jocks excited, but it’ll do nothing for their poll numbers in coming weeks.
Monday, 23 February 2009.
[Possum, they’re polling now or have polled and are about to release one?]
I hope they are polling now and over the weekend. Should be massive media coverage tomorrow.
If they are in the field that would imply they are polling now. You’d have to expect that with the stimulus bills passing, and the bush-fires / response (people generally back the Government in times of acute crisis), we will get some high poll numbers for the ALP that will be unsustainable in the longer term.
Still, the unfavorable impressions with people who claim they are shifting their primary that the coalition has created this week will linger. People always remember bad things more than good.
So next focus of the media will be liberal leadership doubts with Turnbull and Bishop in the firing line??
The Liberals don’t want effective amendments. They want to economy to fail so they can say, “We told you so.”
They work and wish against the national interest … solely for their Liberal interest.
Once Harry Jenkins has been sedated.
Maybe i’m just superstitious, but it doesn’t sit right with me that the $42 billion economic stimulus package passed on Friday the 13th.
ltep, but the parliament website says the house will be 9am-5pm. Did the stimulus package already return to the house and passed?
Cuppa,
You got to understand that Merchant Bankers make their money by picking over the carcasses of basket case businesses.
A profitable, well run enterprise gathers no fees.
Turnbull is just trying to get the Australian economy in to a form that will allow for him to maximise his personal interests.
[On the bushfires, the Victorian Government looks like it might have a big problem for not buying the early warning bushfire system for $20M. It’s always easy to be wise in hindsight though.]
Don’t see how. With fires travelling at 100km/h you either needed to have gotten out half a day before or not at all.
[ltep, but the parliament website says the house will be 9am-5pm. Did the stimulus package already return to the house and passed?]
It was only reporting a message from the Senate returning the bills without amendment. The Bills had passed the House of Representatives the previous evening. It would’ve only required action if the Senate had amended them (which it hadn’t).
That’s why Rudd had to make a statement ‘by indulgence’ rather than just speaking to a motion.
The House has adjourned now until the next sitting week 🙂
bob it was passed last night in the reps
February 13 is a great day for the Government. Last year the apology. This year the stimulus package.
There’s a good article in today’s crikey that ends with:
“There seems to be a general unwillingness in the mainstream media to admit the obvious here: the Opposition’s handling of the stimulus package has been an absolute disaster from the get-go. A self-inflicted disaster, wholly unnecessary, and made worse by each piece of economic data that has arrived to bolster the Government’s case. The Coalition leadership needs a major rethink of how it is handling the economic crisis.”
So true.
The package bills didn’t need to return to the Reps, because they were not amended in the Senate. There were no amendments because the extra money for Xenophon’s causes is not part of this package. The session of the Reps this afternoon was solely so that Rudd and Turnbull could make speeches.
“bob it was passed last night in the reps”
How? It was only passed today in the Senate, now it needs to go back to the House?
“The package bills didn’t need to return to the Reps, because they were not amended in the Senate. There were no amendments because the extra money for Xenophon’s causes is not part of this package.”
Huh? But the Senate didn’t pass the stimulus package? It needed to give Xenophon his concessions this morning in order for his vote?
[Possum, they’re polling now or have polled and are about to release one?]
Snapper was saying the “he indoors” got polled by Nielsen the other day. Don’t know more than that.
bob1234, the original package was amended by the Greens and knocked back by Xenophon.
Last night the package was reintroduced into the House of Reps by the Government in the amended form. It was then passed by the Reps, sent to the Senate and passed there today without amendment.
All that then happens is a message is reported in the House, from the Senate, informing them that the Senate has passed the bills without amendment.
Yes, Harry needs some sleep. I think a good interim replacement would be the Member for Sturt.
(Scrupulously non-partisan, fluent in North Adelaide, deft in the areas of mock guffawing and imperial peakcokery etc.)
So if a bill is passed by the Senate unamended, it doesn’t need to go back to the House?
Xenophon was not given any concessions in the stimpac bills. He was given a bucket of money from the Water for the Future program
Yes, if the bill was initiated in the House of Representatives. It only needs to be passed by each house once in the same form.
And if the bill, which was to Xenophon’s liking, was passed by the House last night, why did it take until today to announce that Xenophon would pass the bill today?
Because of what I said at #38
ruawake said he was phoned by Neilson recently too.
Because the Bill hadn’t been supported by the Senate yet. Xenophon would only agree to the bill once he had gained an assurance from the Government re water and the Murray Darling.
[ruawake said he was phoned by Neilson recently too.]
That was on Qld State Govt issues. Not Federal.
bob1234, my (tentative) understanding is that the government made promises to Xenophon, but that no changes were made to the actual bill. Xenophon tabled a letter from the Treasurer today, I presume to get on the record the agreement they made.
Ahh okies.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7887517.stm
Australia’s Senate has passed the Labor government’s A$42bn ($27bn; £19bn) stimulus plan after the bill was blocked during an earlier vote.
It was approved after the government reached a deal with an independent senator who had earlier joined the Liberal Party-led opposition.
—
Joined? Or voted with?
The bill had already passed once through the House of Representatives, the Senate’s lower chamber, where Labor has a large majority.
–
Senate’s lower chamber? Eh?
It will now return to the lower house in its amended form for a further vote.
–
Also incorrect?
Triton, that’s correct. In that letter Swan rejects cutting the tax bonus by another $50 to free up $600m for water projects, which is what Xenophon wanted last night. Instead he offered him $500 for national water projects in the MDB and $200m in grants for local government, both brought forward in the Water for the Future program, plus $200 for stormwater projects under the National Urban Water Plan and a Productivity Csn study into the water market. That’s what Xenophon accepted, and then he voted for the stimpac bills.