Morgan face-to-face: 62-38

That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 62-38”

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  1. 542 Glen don’t tell porkies. They got ziggy to do a report . where are the other 24 nuclear reactors going? time for the Liberals to be honest for a change.

  2. Did anyone see the article in The West Australian about the 2% swing to ALP on primaries in the state newspoll. That’s right, the ALP gaining in WA, that would be a big story.

    Oh, that’s right, they didn’t write one- NOTHING!

    And you guys call the Australian the government gazette….?

  3. Yes there’ll be jobs for all come Der Tag – Gough for Paris, Paul for the World Bank, Kim for Washington, Bob for Beijing – and L*tham for Ouagadougou.

  4. Saw Howard on Chinese TV tonight – he looked terrible and to make matters worst they showed Rudd who was looking good, being mobed by school girls.

  5. Glen, that whole “market will decide” line was terrible. He essentially was saying its up to BIg Business not the people. That’s always popular…..???

  6. Scorpio at 522

    The Green vote must have upped a bit. I try and assume a 40% others flow and 75% Green flow to Labor, but I think Galaxy asks the polled to express a preference.

  7. Look, if nicki cornes manages to win the seat, all power to her. I don’t care. Mind you, if the SA media keep on hounding her… she’s a good bet (almost spelt bet as ‘pet’… ahhh, freudian typos…) to win the seat, it’s starting to look unsavoury, ppl will start feeling sorry for the poor girl… (probably everyone will hate me after this statement… such is life!)

  8. 555 What does this mean Glen?

    “Legislation outlining the framework for a nuclear power industry will be introduced over the next term of government if the coalition is re-elected, Prime Minister John Howard says.

    The federal government has outlined its intention to establish a nuclear power industry in Australia.

    Prime Minister John Howard said it was unlikely the nuclear legislation would be ready before the federal election.

    “The legislation isn’t quite ready and whether it gets passed this year or next year depends on the timing of the election and the will of the people,” Mr Howard told Southern Cross Broadcasting.”

  9. [29
    Xamiam Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 11:28 pm

    Thanks Paul K (@ 508) – am I right in thinking this is in conjunction with a shift in the overall take from states to Commonwealth?

    I’d expect you to know 🙂 ]

    It gets a bit complicated but back in the mid 90s the High Court ruled that some State Government taxing powers to either be invalid or constitutionally doubtful. To ensure the States did not go broke the Federal Govt agreed to use its taxing powers to collect revenues formerly levied under State franchise laws and to return all monies collected to the States. However a little creative accounting has been going on and depending on how you calculate it the Federal Govt has been keeping a fair share of the monies collected and not passing it on to the States. Those who think Costello is a genius will of coarse disagree with this.

  10. If Rudd wins this election the GG will have to change its name.
    Something like ‘The Neo-con Chronicle’ or ‘The Villiage Idiot’ [to suit the standard of some of its journalists].

  11. Nuclear will be here earlier than most think, it takes a good ten years to site, paln and build a nuclear power station.

    Howard has promised that bsuinesses will decide wwhere the power stations go. If he is re-elected the sites can be selected as early as late next year so that they can be commissioned by about 2016-2017.

    Who wants to live next to a site set aside for a nuclear plant, house values will plummett as soon as the site is selected.

    2 sites in SA that are prime spots, Kingston at the refinery site and

  12. GG,

    I am touched by the backhanded compliment. I suspect the Nero order will be issued by the middle of next week!

    Labor is entitled to its moment of triumph – a victory for a first term government is a blank slate.

    I believe some of you have misjudged me as pro-Liberal which is not true. Which is not to say that I am pro-Labor. I dont support the 2 party system generally.


    Why do male heteros.uals feel turned off by the concept of male/male interc.ourse but think female/female is cool?

    On plum jobs: –

    Embassies apparently carry cabinet rank and status. But too much administrative responsibility. I think something with no responsibility is much better – administrator of Norfolk apparently comes with a colonial mansion and wine cellar. Unfortunately the servants were foolishly cut back.

    ambassador to the ILO in Geneva would also be extremely good.

  13. The Völkischer Beobachter was the paper of a party in power – that won’t apply to the Daily Distorter once their idol is cast into outer darkness on 24/11. They will be the right-wing equivalent of Green Left Weekly.

  14. Chalk Graffitti outside the Swan sub branch office today read “I Bugger and I vote too” in bright orange: people working there looked at it, had a laugh, and wondered at what time in the early AM someone came and wrote that because of the very present homophobia up here in the Peoples Republic of Queensland.

    Wandered up the street and saw same graffitti message marked out on the ground outside the Coalition candidates election base camp: Liberal Party people trying desperately to wash it away, getting orange chalk and water and dirt and grime all over their pretty white pants and busy ties.

    Bloody funny to watch: “Oh, oh, those unnatural (sic) hemosixcules have been here Doris, look at that “. The evolution of human thought is kinda slow up here.

  15. Econocrat 433

    Thanks for the useful comments. I had tried the budget papers, but as you say they don’t go back beyond ’96-97′. Funny about that, looks like ‘economic cleansing’ by cossy and the rat! Wondered also has GST revenue grown as quickly as taxation with ‘bracket creep’ and various excises, particularly fuel?

  16. Adam, do you reckon Dennis will be sent out to spruik the paper at various suburban hotspots? I wouldn’t mind seeing that, actually.

  17. 574 ESJ- God I hope Jasmin doesn’t read this blog. She went off to bed in a huff not long ago complaining about sexist men who think women, esp Nicole, are only good for one thing etc. She will track you down and kill you.

  18. I’ve had three press releases published this week, Edward, so I’m quite pleased. We are expecting a 10% swing out our way. The ex-Howard battler suburbs are very very angry – I was on prepoll last week and I had to protect the Liberal lady against angry punters who wanted to knock over her table.

  19. LOL Glen!

    Given the “need” of certain Labor MP’s for Arabic numbers you might find quite a few would be interested (surreptitiously of course) for some informational material.

  20. ESJ,

    Enough of your prevarication and side shufffling. We know of your disdain for loyalty and total lack of committment or character. In another era you might have been Mal Colston.

  21. ESJ @ 571. That’s not really a personal question – more of an anthropological query. Speaking personally I’m not in the slightest bit bothered or turned off by the first, and quite uninterested in the second. I’m aware that many men claim to be turned off by your first proposition, but I suspect that’s just bravado. As for the second proposition, my experience is that many men are happy to see someone else (especially a woman) do all the hard work.

    Anyway, I didn’t say I was turned off by the concept of male/male innercourse. I said I was turned off by the concept of being at a Liberal Party preselection meeting. Even as a heteros*ual male I can see that one of those options is joyful and fullfilling and the other barren, sin-filled and worthy of damnation.

  22. so is that a 10% Vic or National? either way, you are being serious, Adam? you don’t need to be the prop-optimist at this time of night, in this forum…

  23. Personally GG I think there is a lot to be said for rakes and scoundrels! Whats the old saying always back the horse called self-interest?

  24. re 576

    ‘They will be the right-wing equivalent of Green Left Weekly.’

    Sorry that spot is already taken by the West Australian


  25. So ESJ, it looks like you’ve conceded?!

    The forces of the proletariat (slightly adjusted to make them acceptable to the MSM) are about to succeed.

  26. I think GG also when one takes the masters coin one can be reasonably expected to do as the master commands.

    I have always been careful not to take the masters coin. Unfortunately in politics most people are “owned”.

    Freedom works baby!

  27. The Rattus Crew will already have the basic plan worked out for nuclear. Pity for them they are going to be out on their ears this time. Not that i believe the exact numbers (though 62/38 has a nice sound to it!!), but it make 56/44 look a lot more solid.

    1st, enrichment in Australia, then high level waste disposal. That can all be done in the back of beyond where no-one will see it.

    2nd, In 8-10 years build the first reactor in a safe ALP seat on the coast somewhere.

    In the meantime starve any alternatives except “clean” coal of significant funding or any kind of Federal support so they remain economically enviable and have no MRET (other than the states programs that is).

    One thing i really liked about the ALP’s policy announcements was when, a few months ago, they announced proposed funding of $50M to drill holes for hot rock geothermal pilot plants.

    Get that going and invest in the infrastructure to get it from the generator sites to the cities and we will never need nuclear.

  28. re 589


    They just interviewed half a dozen low paid workers who have suffered from workchoices after a government report was released highlighting real concerns for workers on the “bottom of the food chain”

    Thier story only had quotes and commentary from Joe Hockey about the credability of the report- do they even understand that these peole gave up their poorly paid time to be interviewed about their hardship?

    They thought telling their story would make a difference.

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