Morgan: 56-44

Curiously, all we have from Morgan so far is a small-sample telephone poll conducted over the past two nights showing Labor’s lead at 56-44, about half way between last week’s face-to-face and the previous phone poll a fortnight ago. The press release continues to assure us that “the ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week”. So where is it?

UPDATE: Morgan have just added a new poll from the same sample covering attitudes to the Tamar Valley pulp mill, so maybe they’re not done for the day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

429 comments on “Morgan: 56-44”

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  1. 374
    Will From Kooyong Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
    Before I get accused of the H word, I want to state I believe this poll is an extreme outlier. Anyway, given that and the result of 62/38 we end up with: 134/14/2 (ALP/LNP/IND).
    This poll was taken over the weekend when Howard was trying to take some skin off Garrett: he was at his infuriating worst, mouthing the kind iof nonsense that has so alienated people like me – people who really want some serious attempt to deal the issues of the day and are sick to the eyeballs with smart-arse gesturing by the govt.

    I for one am not even slightly surprised by this f2f result. It gives the Liberals exactly the message they need. If anything, the showing by Howard this week has been even worse than his fatuous efforts of the weekend. Does he really think the electorate are so stupid? He is campaigning on naked deception: When is a promise not a promise? When is sorry not sorry? When will he stop treating us like fools! If he continues in this vein, he really will lose 60:40 and the whole country will rejoice.

  2. Re 353,

    Bushfire Bill Says:

    November 9th, 2007 at 6:03 pm
    We’re two weeks out from a federal election and the bloody ABC has effing cricket on from dawn to dusk, and Nine headlines with Ben Bloody Cousins, a drug-addicted football player from an obscure W.A. football team who enjoys hitting the coke in the off-season. What is this damn country coming to, that this garbage heads the TV news two weeks out from a federal election?

    Agreed on Cousins, particularly here in Sydney. I mean he is from WA already …… About cricket though, 9 is showing the cricket and when tests are on, cricket will be on from first ball to last ball. Fortunately for those who aren’t into the cricket, this First test will be done with at LATEST, Monday dinner time east coast, maybe earlier. Second Test is 16th – 20th in Hobart, those dates are inclusive. There will NOT be any cricket to interfere with the election itself.

  3. Margin of error on face to face is about 3% to 3.5% and i agree there is a face to face bias toward alp, usually 2% or as much as 3%.

    So if we say best case scenario for Libs, its abot 56/44.

    That matches the phone poll, but that had a bigger margin of error which could go either way and was done after the rate hike.

    I’d say 58/42 sounds a little far fetched but not impossible.

    It would be safe to say the narrowing is now an optical illusion caused by standing too close to the white baord at best.

  4. Find the Morgan F2F hard to take seriously, the phone sample is only 500 odd. Still, the rates rise was well flagged and Possum’s analysis of the relationship between the Labor vote and cash rate signals that there is a relationship, but the time relationship on the effect is unclear, usually a lag. What also may be having an effect is the increasingly shambolic campaign from the Libs. and the behaviour of the prominent Libs. when they stick their heads up, witness Abbott last week.

  5. Listening to News Radio on way home, as cricket on ABC rather than PM. Did I hear or did I just imagine that Denis Shanahan is now making news rather than reporting news? Did I hear Denis being interviewed about the origins of the ‘letter’ about the motor industry? I am sure I heard Denis ‘stands by his story’. News Radio started the segmnet with quite a splash.

  6. 404
    Julie Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 6:40 pm … There will NOT be any cricket to interfere with the election itself…

    The networks have a good eye for rating the newsworthy. I venture to say that lousy polls and foul-ups by Howard and company are no longer news. The campaign has been rolling along for many months towards its inevitable conclusion. Most people are jaded by the whole thing and probably welcome the respite offered even by something as tedious as cricket.

  7. Reported on Oz Elections Forum (May is the sitting Lib in McPherson):

    I will give you a quite street market tip. The Gold Coast Bulletin will report Tomorrow that the Lib Margaret May is well ahead in a poll conducted by them.

    In fact the smart money knows that this is a stuff up by the Bulletin and they have admitted it in private. Margaret May is in big, big, trouble and she has a handy 13.9% advantage.

  8. So funny! Best timing ever Roy – crank out another one of these next time Howard says he’s “sorryunsorry” or knocks out a shopper and runs away.

    This is turning into the best collection of comedy gold I’ve ever lived through in my life. Something like a watching a slow motion car crash – between a clown mobile and a truck filled with plastic dog turds!

  9. Is the ALP soft on Crime ad the dumbest in history???

    I know it’s a big call.

    But they just come up with that slogan, followed by the LIberals are tough on crime. No facts, no examples, just slogan.

    When I saw it, I thought wasn;t the NSW earlier on in the year?

    I love this Liberal Party. You almost wonder if they’ve been laying some money on the ALP winning by a big margin.

  10. 413
    Julie Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 6:53 pm
    Reported on Oz Elections Forum (May is the sitting Lib in McPherson):
    …Margaret May is in big, big, trouble and she has a handy 13.9% advantage.

    MacPherson would be one seat the Libs would never anticipate having to fight for. Great news!

  11. as someone noted before
    every seat is in play

    scare tactics are only upsetting the rusted ons

    what happened at hockeys today-nothing on the wires

  12. The Keegan @ 88

    Watch the tabloids. The OZ is difficult because it would be a major backdown. It has to come down easy, hedge the bets. The Rupert tabloids don’t have that cred problem. They go with the wind. The OZ has been the bastion of right-wing nutterism. In the history of newspapers in this country, The Australian’s recent performance must consign it to the tip. Along with its editor. I do feel a bit of sympathy for poor old Carol Overies, however. Did she actually write the AWB stuff?

  13. Hello Glen,
    I know Libs and Labs are somewhat tribal but a touch of humility and humanity goes a long way. You are somewhat love-struck by Uncle Howie,however….he has feet of clay,old frog. Find it a bit scary, just as people get all tizzy over the pope and the queen.

  14. Here,here,Michael….I’ve written 2 posts as he is the one person I was going to pace the pavements for in his attempt at a seat in the senate.
    Such a thoroughly decent bloke.

  15. I have just had a chance to catch up with how Bongiorno at 10 and others have exposed Dennis Shanahan for the shonk we all knew him to be.

    Congratulations BushfireBill for following this up

    But when you read in the story this morning paragraphs such as:

    “The PM&C submission says it is “widely recognised that Australian car manufacturers are facing serious pressure, raising real questions about the long-term viability of at least two, and possibly three, of the companies”.

    “In essence, the question that the industry is raising is why would a Toyota, Ford or a General Motors in Tokyo or Detroit respectively want to invest millions in upgrading an Australian operation when they are facing higher labour costs, greater union militancy and the threat of more strike action when they can put their money into low-cost and highly efficient Chinese operations?”

    …you have to ask yourself, was the PM & C submission written by Peter Hendy or by a Liberal party stooge placed in the department to generate such rubbish, which frankly reads like something from an undergraduate Liberal student doing business studies at Bond Uni…

    With any little luck this story will “bell the cat” on the woeful coverage from our erstwhile national newspaper of record…

    I hope someone puts in a complaint to the Press Council

    And someone should also try and FOI the letter and its support material (that is, unless there’s a conclusive certificate on it already)

    And if the journos of the MSM had any balls they would be starting to direct questions to both the Treasurer, the Finance Minister, the Minister for Industry etc to see if they were made aware of this correspondence

    And directing questions to Shanahan himself…

    Come on fearless members of the 4th estate…..your credibility demands it….

    And BTW, frankly if you were a global manufacturing company would you be happy having your “brand” associated with “Team Howard”? and their ideological anti-union obsessions?

    I think not. I suspect that not even Ratsak wants the association….

    I really hope the media ask some hard questions of itself about this story, which – after all – led the front page of our national broadsheet and was clearly designed to set the agenda for the day and dovetails perfectly into the rhetoric and verbiage of the Coalition Government….

    Is Dennis Shanahan for real?

    I guess Paul Kelly is just happy he wasn’t lumbered or instructed to write this rubbish…

  16. I think Dennis Shanahan has finally been caught red-handed. The evidence is clear. This story is a fabrication. In fact, the ABC PM program did seek a comment from him, and the explanation was entirely convoluted and unconvincing – something along the lines that in fact these had been verbal comments made by reps of the various car companies. This of course in now way squares with the story as published.

  17. Someone was talking earlier about a bloke in a shopping centre today making a goose out of rodent by putting his hand out and then pulling it away as rat face tried to shake. Apparently the coppers then gave the prankster a ‘talking’ to.

    Tonight on ABC News Sydney showed the clip of the fake handshake without pointing out what actually went on.

    Looked to me as if the prankster got rodent a couple of times – hand out, then as rodent put his out the bloke laughed and pulled his hand away and touched his hair, twice, laughing in rodents face each time.

    No doubt the clip will get air time on Insiders etc.

  18. Glen,
    A lot of these places don’t have embassies,etc. I too had parents who would have done anything to get out of war-torn Europe,especially during years of occupation. It is one thing to invade another country,but it is another to have your country occupied,with soldiers helping themselves to your property,wife,daughters…
    Just imagine if this country was invaded and occupied for years and you had young children.

  19. Glen, I have a few questions to ask you
    You stated the other night that you served in Government.
    Would you kindly enlighten me as to how you served, was it with the libs or nats.
    Was it state or federal government (I presume State)
    Did you serve on the front bench, or were you a back-bencher?
    What, if any, was your portfolio if you served as a frontbencher.
    On what platform did you seek election?
    How long did you serve the people, and did you carry through with your promises that you would have made to the people. How successful were you in implementing policy?
    Were you defeated at further elections, or did you retire from govt?
    Thanks, Glen.

  20. 418 Derek, fair call, and even if the GG did a 180 I suspect I’d actually find it a bit icky… I mean could I see myself agreeing with Glug Glug Milne on anything? I think not…

  21. Keegan

    It would be super icky and sticky, not to mention untenable. Therefore, hard to do but, in this atmosphere, necessary. There is always a form of words – for everything. A newspaper has to retain some dignity.

  22. Earlier on I e-mailed my local Liberal candidate Bob Day about his apprentice wages thing. Here is the answer I got.

    I believe apprentice wages (make that ALL wages) should be based on
    performance. I have long argued that
    if an apprentice can perform the work of a tradesman (and I have met
    many who can) they should be paid
    accordingly. Bricklayers, for example, get paid per 1,000 bricks laid. I
    know some 2nd year apprentices
    who can out-lay a tradesman with 20 years experience!

    Like it or not, people can only be paid based on the value of work done.
    If you wanted a pipe fixed at your
    house or some pavers laid or a new power point fitted and the value of
    the work is say $100, how can the
    tradesman you call in pay someone else $120 to do it? Some people are
    slower than others, some are faster. That’s
    life, and we all have to live with that. The fast ones end up earning
    more than the slow ones.

    As for “$5 an hour, be happy you’ve got a job”, every apprentice after a
    few short years ends up being a
    tradesman and is then on between $1,000 – $2,000 a week for the rest of
    their life!

    But apart from that, why is it OK for student teachers, student social
    workers, student nurses and just
    about every other area of university or TAFE or hairdressing students
    etc to get $5 an hour? Why is that
    not patronising?

    When you spend your money Curtis, you decide whether it’s worth buying
    for that price. It’s your money.
    So who should decide how much people should be paid?

  23. BTW if anybody is interested a couple of my relatives went to a recent function with Downer as speaker. It was a fundraiser for Steve Ciobo in Moncrieff. When speaking about what the internal Liberal polls are showing Downer said he expected the Liberals would loose a couple of seats and that is all. This blow me away. Firstly, whether the internal polls were showing this or not you would expect the normal line to be, ‘it is close and we need all the help we can get’. Secondly if it were showing the same as the public polls then why go out and make yourself look bad. There is something strange going on.

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