Morgan face-to-face: 62-38

That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 62-38”

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  1. J*nes won’t find many women where he hangs out.

    I would say this is the worst week for the Libs since Howard and “Rosy” Carlton screwed up their tax policy during the ’87 campaign. I wouldn’t scoff too hard at the 62% Morgan poll. The others may be following it soon.

    Did we decide on a Liberal campaign song yet?

    Ich wünsche Ihnen alle gute Nacht

  2. 609
    Kate Ellis for PM Says:
    November 10th, 2007 at 12:10 am

    ACN on-line


    Glen: that spells curtains mate, there is no ‘uncle Howie’ rabbit this time around. I think Newspoll will bounce back to 55-45 or 56-44 next week.

    Two weeks away from the election, given the pretty aimless and uninspiring efforts of both election strategy teams thus far, it looks very much like same ole same ole we have had all year. The end product should be very much something like 54.5 -45.5 2PP on election night. but not as many seats being lost as you might expect from those kind of 2PP results.

    A loss for the Coalition no doubt, but not a ‘wipe out’ circa Coalition in 83 or Labor in 96, but WORSE. Im afraid your lot may need 3 elections to be competetive Glen. It is only 14 days now to election day: it is over: the question now becomes for whom the bell tolls and who will survive.

    Brough? No, but he will return I hope in another life: Turnbull ? No, but he will bash up the Bewowra wa*ker and take his seat from him anyway.

    Costello ? Yeah sure but he won’t stick around for 2 elections to ‘try’ for PM, his only wet dream.

    The Mad Monk, Christopher Pyne, Dolly Downer, Coonan and other ‘born to rule true beleivers’ will no doubt survive and spend the first 12 months figuring out who is going to fill the power void Howard kept all to himself thank you very much.

  3. [ #
    peterm Says:
    November 10th, 2007 at 12:45 am

    Now that we can confirm the revolution is happening, can someone remind me where we send our nominations for the first against the wall? ]
    Please let it be Andrew Bolt.

  4. no, that last bit was someone else’s fault. I’m screaming down the telephone right now… the road to nowhere is on the correct thread.

  5. [Glen: that spells curtains mate, there is no ‘uncle Howie’ rabbit this time around. I think Newspoll will bounce back to 55-45 or 56-44 next week.]

    Am I the only one that gets freaked out when Glen calls Howard “uncle Howie” or “Uncle Howie”?

    If Howard wins the election will he start calling him “Mein Fuhrer”?

    Either way, there’s something a big Dr Strangelove about it:

  6. Paul K. 657. No it should be Blot (hat tip Mark Twain). I want to hear that little creep singing Under The Spreading Chestnut Tree and weeping tears of joy for Big Brother 10 years into a Rudd Government. No, it’s got to be Piers – a show trial, with his belt removed so he can’t hang himself first (now that would be a tricky manoeuvre), then internal exile to the Murray Bridge Repudiator or whatever godforsaken rag will accept him.

  7. More bad news re Worstchoices from the GG.

    [JOHN Howard’s industrial laws were branded a shambles last night, with the revelation that half of all wage deals checked by the Coalition’s workplace watchdog have failed the “fairness test” and been sent back to employers for correction.

    The Workplace Authority confirmed 26,833 agreements had been knocked back for failing to comply with minimum standards since the Prime Minister introduced the fairness test in May.

    Once deals are rejected, employers have 14 days to fix problems or have them permanently cancelled, with employees entitled to backpay.

    Figures released yesterday by Workplace Authority chief Barbara Bennett show an enormous backlog of 142,000 individual and collective wage agreements — almost 80 per cent of all those lodged — are still waiting to be fully checked.

    The high number of wage deals either rejected or awaiting checks comes amid complaints from employers that the Government’s fairness test has become a bureaucratic nightmare. ],25197,22733701-601,00.html

  8. Well if those figures are true it is not flattering for Barbara Bennett. She is responsible for the agency, so if it is not adequately resourcesd or for soe internal reason is not keeping up with the workload, it is hard to see how the person who runs the agency can escape criticism, particularly when they were closely involved in designing the new system!

    As for journalists, I vote for Denis Shanahan to get the inagural “tony Snow Award{” for right wing bias. Andrew Bolt would run him a close second.

  9. Paul K @ 568
    BeenThere et al

    Paul is quite correct in that C’wlth revenues to States/Territories has dropped in “real terms”. Another way of looking at it, is the proportion of State budgets from C’wlth revenues. Since 1930s, or WW2 etc, I think its been around 40-50% of most State govt budgets. You can get more historical info/data on methodologies if you search on terms like ‘Vertical Fiscal Imbalance’ (VFI) and ‘Horizontal Fiscal Equity’, (HFE) and ‘GST Revenues’ in addition to those Paul mentioned, from places like the and and websites, and most state govts. They are buried, but locatable.

    I work in the C’wlth side of things. Another complicating factor is the 8 jurisdictions don’t all agree on how it should be allocated or accounted for, and are in competition with each other, and will fiddle their own books to “prove” their own cases. For example, NSW and other larger eastern states, have suggested the GST should be distributed on simple per capita population basis. Thats fine for NSW, it has the biggest population so would always get the lion’s share. WA argues that its mining sector is contributing far more to national GDP than others, so it should get more in return. QLD ditto with various industries, including tourism. NT and Tas have much poorer economies and smaller populations, but greater proportion of “disadvantaged” populations, (eg aged, Indigenous, unemployed, low SES etc) and often much higher-cost service delivery mechanisms etc with unlucky geography etc, and have little power at the table with their Big Brothers. so just cry, and beg a lot, from the neighbours. SA in my experience has always tried to play “honest broker” – being in the middle, so to speak. Sometimes these state=specific issues are taken into the accounting in a kind of State “weighting”, which the larger eastern States then say is “unfair” to them. The arguments are as old as Federation, and will continue.

    That said – it has still been cut more severely under the Coalition fed govt, but as Paul mentions through specific targeting of particular service SPP areas, as in health, welfare, disability services etc.

    Part of it is major public funding for eg Medicare, PBS is growing and blowing out greater than GDP. Part of that is globalisation, and outside of the control of the federal govt (tho it likes to pretend it is in control). Australia cannot stand up against major multinationals, in energy, medicines, agriculture and many other things.

    Part of it is ideology, Liberals have always supported privatisation, and the individual taking responsibility. Thats what they stand for. Thats what people vote for them for. Give the individual tax-cuts and they dont need public funded services. They can buy their own services, and if they can’t afford it – well *tough*.

    Hence the humungus billions in the tax rebates for *mandatory* private hospital health insurance (that many are forced to pay for, but can’t afford to use? Go figure). That funding is totally uncapped, and just keeps growing as $billions in corporate welfare for insurance companies. Consumers dont see that money, the companies do. Leave a little aside for a Charity “safety net” for the lazy undeserving bludgers who wont get off their butts and work-for-the-dole.

    Hence cutting public health, public education, welfare services etc… starving State govts of funds for these services, is standard routine-by-the-textbook Liberal ideological platform – forcing the States to either cut their own services, (eg grants to Local Govts for road maintenance, so we have families of 5 dying on a collapsed road that nobody can afford to maintain), and/or raise their own taxes, and/or privatise and outsource as much as they can in service delivery (particularly welfare services, like DOCS, State Public Housing, policing, Legal Aid etc) – sell off assets, electricity power grids, or whatever, to make up the shortfall.

    To me, and it is just my view, that so many State govts have continued to maintain decent services (at least in urban areas) without too many draconian measures is pretty good. But the crunch will come sooner or later. Having Liberal State govts would have hastened the process ,much more quickly to full privatisation to a two tier system for *everything*.

    And as for nostalgia, I can remember as a young kid, the 1972 “Its Time” campaign jingle – and was surprised to hear that it had been voted into the Top 10 Aussie TV Ads of all time! LOL — up there with the vegemite song 🙂

  10. If the government changes, Shanahan and Bolt will just continue to spruik for their side as they always have. They’ll provide an outlet for ‘leaks’ from within government departments no doubt. I doubt that Labor will witchhunt too much if they win. Pity. I’d be interested to follow Labor led Senate inquiries into AWB, Hicks, Indigenous Intervention, Iraq War, Tampa, pacific solution and the many other foreign and domestic policy stuff ups and scandals. But I’ll be voting Labor in the hope that these examples of our collective humanity become a thing of the past.

  11. The fact that such a huge number of AWAs have failed the ‘(Un) Fairness Test’, will be used by Fat Joe to demonstrate that SerfChoices is working.

  12. Long time Poll Bludger addict, rare poster.

    The dead tree version of the Canberra Times reports a surge in young ACT voters is putting pressure on senator Gary Humphries. Electoral Commission figures show the ACT has experienced a dramatic rise in the number of first time voters and that there are more of them proportionally than in other parts of the country.

    Story has Malcom Mackerras predicting the shift in the voting demogratic would see Greens candidate Kerry Tucker win the second seat and Labor’s Kate Lundy the first.

    Gives Getup much of the credit, but gives no figures.

    Yah booh sucks Howard and your unfair electoral laws. Let’s hope they bite you in the bum!

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