Gold Coast Bulletin: 57-36 to Liberal in McPherson

The Gold Coast Bulletin, which has a reasonable record with its local polling, has produced a survey showing a fairly modest swing to Labor in the safe Liberal seat of McPherson. After exclusion of the undecided, Liberal incumbent Margaret May leads Labor’s Eddy Sarroff 57 per cent to 36 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 58.9 per cent and 30.1 per cent at the 2004 election. No sample size is provided (“full results” will be published tomorrow), but if it’s like the paper’s polls in 2004 it will be around 450.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

109 comments on “Gold Coast Bulletin: 57-36 to Liberal in McPherson”

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  1. 95
    Hilder Says:
    November 10th, 2007 at 2:27 am
    ben cousins is a L-E-D-G-E-N-D !!!

    Hilder, spelling isn’t important, but if you’re going to scream at us, please try to get it right!.. Your spelling, isn’t a legend, it’s an M-Y-T-H!

    For what it’s worth, I think the AFL and the Government should get off this guy’s back, and let him fight his problems in privacy. Of course he shouldn’t, as old time Catholics used to say, “lead others into sin”

  2. Just logged in and read this thread. I have looked at the GCB website and it STILL says “Moncrieff”. There is no mention of McPherson anywhere in the article. If it was a typo they would have corrected it by now. The suspicion must be that they’ve polled Moncrieff, not McPherson, and some moron at the GCB has written up the poll thinking that May and Saroff are the candidates in Moncrieff. The primary vote in Moncrieff in 2004 was 64/24, so this poll’s 49/31 would be quite believable as figures for Moncrieff. In McPherson the primaries were 58/30. I don’t believe that the ALP in McPherson has only risen 1%. Saroff is very popular and has spent a lot of money on his campaign. If this suspicion is correct, they GCB will now be trying to decide whether to come clean or deny all.

  3. possibly has been said previously but IF this poll is correct and the newspoll is correct about the swing in QLD then there is a large swing going on elswhere!!

  4. collingwoodlegend,

    Dawson might narrow a bit with the general swing, but even with 90 seats plus, I’d be amazed if Dawson is one of them.

    Your 5 reasons: 1/ I would say the 2004 Labor candidate is more respected than this one. You shouldn’t choose an urban trendy who used to have a pony tail to win over the rural National/Labor type voter.

    2/ Can’t agree, with Labor shortages as they are, not many are afraid of getting a poor wage.

    3/Yes, that will assist Labor to some degree

    4/ Deanne Kelly is well liked by many. She has quite a popular profile amongst women. I know more than a few people who don’t like Howard, but vote for her.

    5/ Couldn’t agree more. The Mercury has had an influx of a couple of hard left wing journos who are ruining the paper, turning it from a decent community paper, to a political activist’s forum.

  5. WB I think that they polled both electorates, got them ar#e up and it slipped through the system.

    I expect some journalist is going to be kicked from one end of the news room to the other end then back again.

    They polled the right electorates, got the numbers mixed up and it slipped through the cracks. be interesting to see what the Moncrief poll is if they are actually game to publish it. Still again it could be the other next door seat of Forde as both of those with these results while disappointing for Labor could be made believable but not McPherson.

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