Gold Coast Bulletin: 57-36 to Liberal in McPherson

The Gold Coast Bulletin, which has a reasonable record with its local polling, has produced a survey showing a fairly modest swing to Labor in the safe Liberal seat of McPherson. After exclusion of the undecided, Liberal incumbent Margaret May leads Labor’s Eddy Sarroff 57 per cent to 36 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 58.9 per cent and 30.1 per cent at the 2004 election. No sample size is provided (“full results” will be published tomorrow), but if it’s like the paper’s polls in 2004 it will be around 450.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

109 comments on “Gold Coast Bulletin: 57-36 to Liberal in McPherson”

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  1. #47 Barry – “Moncrieff on the southern end of the Gold Coast” – that sounds like just the usual crap reporting standards from Murdoch’s Bulletin: McPherson is southern Gold Coast while Moncrieff is central. Typo, IMHO.

  2. I live on the Gold Coast and know most of the Labor and Liberal candidates. The reason the GCB chose McPherson to poll is that Eddie Sarroff is the Labor candidate. He has been very vocal in the council and there are a lot of people who support him who are not Labor. BTW I went to school with Sarroff’s children only a couple of grades higher.

  3. Gandhi (41) is just another ignorant, slack-jawed, limp-wristed whinger that can’t handle the fact that people on the Gold Coast are discerning, have taste and style, and can’t stand the ALP.

    Having lived on the Coast for a few years I can surely vouch for the wisdom of the Coast when it comes to federal elections.

    They are self-reliant, hard-working, decent, wholesome achievers that contribute a thousand times more to this country than the usual subsidised, moronic, lazy, good for nothings that infest safe Labor seats like Fowler, Blaxland and Watson.

    Lets compare the productivity of National and Liberal Party electorates and comapre them to the slimy laziness of ‘safe’ Labor seats.

    Rudd might win. But he’ll rely on the decency and hard work of Liberal and National Party voters to keep this country ticking over and to pay for the brain dead, dole bludging scum that make up the bulk of the ALP vote.

  4. 38
    John Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 10:26 pm
    I’ve heard that Dawson in central queensland is in play and that is 10% Nationals territory.

    Dawson is definately in play for 5 good reasons. 1/ The local ALP candidate in 2004 was a disaster. Her primary vote was lower than the primary senate vote recieved in Dawson. Her primary vote was 31.4% the dawson senate primary was 32.83% which is quite an achievement. 2/ The your rights at work campaign has been red hot in Mackay for over a year. 3/ The increasing trend of coal miners moving their families to Mackay. 4/ Deanne Kelly has never really been liked locally merely preferred to the ALP in the past. 5/ The local media appears to be somewhat anti Deanne Kelly.

  5. Sydney.pfffffffffffffffffffffffffffffft

    More taxpayer subsidised ‘artists’ and thespians than the rest of the country together.

    Blaxland? I’m sure the people of Cook agree.

  6. Don’t get me started on the “Paul Keating” NSW RIght faction corruption, extended without check from Iemma, across our righteous nation.

  7. Isabella:

    They are self-reliant, hard-working, decent, wholesome achievers that contribute a thousand times more to this country .

    LOL, you forgot to mention delusional.

  8. I live in Bonner Isabella,and the discerning Burghers here are going to give Ex-Judge Angelo Vastas’ son a good kick in the a*se.From What I hear a lot of good kicks are going to be delivered to Liberal/National members in Queensland,and not before time either.Much hubris coming for the Queensland Branch of the Liberal Party methinks.

  9. #56 Isabella

    But the Gold Coast is just one big unwholesome subsidy!
    Tourist Dollars, pension and super payments, schoolies money and other injections and finally a reputation for the trivial, cosmetic, false and degrading.

    But hey, I’ve never been there. Does it produce anything or is the Gold Coast just a dormitory for recreation and retirement?

    I can’t see how the brain dead dole bludging scum can make up the bulk of the ALP vote. There are not that many of them.

    Maybe you meant: brain dead + dole bludgers + scum > 0.5* (labor vote)?

    Still the brain dead are not Constitutionally entitled to vote, dole bludgers are less than 5% of the population and with say a 44% Labor primary vote, that would mean you classify at least 17% of the Australian population as Scum.
    Does that fit your observational experience?

    Please correct me if I’ve misunderstood your biting analysis. 🙂

  10. I think that it is unwise to target somebody just because they have a different view i.e. Isabella. What people say on this site may or may not be right but it important in an democracy for people to be able to speak whether right or wrong. debate with somebody just dont target them becuase it is you who looks like the fool in the end.

  11. Now come on folks don’t be too hard on Isabella. If it wasn’t for decent upstanding people like her – who instinctively know they are better than everyone else and born to rule – this country would have no class at all.

  12. Oh well, if there’s only a small swing to Labor in safe Coalition seats in Queensland, and since there’s a lack of Labor-held seats there, this likely bodes well for Labor pickups.

  13. Hey! Isabella (56).

    My previous work centred on hunting down fraudsters – especially investment fraudsters. I can assure you that the Australian hot-spots for scumbags who rip off other Australians are ALL strongly Liberal voting electorates (including those Gold Coast seats). Each and every fraudster I caught was linked in to the local ‘conservative’ establishment – Liberal Party, National Party, Shooter’s Party, One nation. It’s a pattern. I’ll admit my bias, but you really should take a long hard look at the attitudes your parents gave you. Travel the world a bit, get a real job and wake up to yourself.

  14. Stephen (74) When people come on this site and effectively start calling all of the Labor supporters on it “dole bludging scum” (and other assorted insults) that is not debate and does not deserve to be treated as such. If people like Isabella want to engage in serious discussion they can start by bringing their manners with them.

  15. It sounds like the Gold Coast Bulletin does not seem to know whether it’s surveyed McPherson or Moncrieff. If they surveyed McPherson, most of Labor’s vote has come from the minors. If they surveyed Moncrieff, they’ve taken around 7% off the Libs, might be getting up towards 8-9% swing. That sounds consistent with the Newspoll cumulative figures for Queensland.

  16. Peregrine @ 83

    I find it hard to believe like you that Eddie Sarroff would not be getting the usual Labor swing or more. However I do not believe there will be a major swing again Ciobo in Moncrieff. He is one of the Liberals best people on the ground and has more support than the rest of the Liberal party put together. I will say however that Sam is a very good candidate for Labor and should have been used in a much better seat.

  17. Well I live in Moncrieff and have been campaigning in McPherson and quite frankly do not believe those figures are anywhere near accurate. As for the Bulletin, pffftt, it’s better known for it’s singles and swinger adds.

  18. Stephen @ 77

    Sorry Stephen, I live in Perth which is a very safe Labor seat.
    Since Isabella @ 56 has spoken, this means I am:
    37% discerning, have taste and style
    5% dole bludger
    18% or more Scum
    and up to 40% undefined.
    I would like to know how Isabella classifies the rest of Labor voters, Green voters and minor party voters. When I know who and how I am, then I might work out what I do.

    BTW, thanks for creating the future 🙂

    Much as what someone does, has always been important to me, it is written (by Isabella) that where you are from and how you vote that’s important.

    (In case you missed it, my tirade at the Gold Coast was purely a playful parody of Isabella’s critique of the rest of the Australia. It is consequently unsubstantiated and not meant to be.)

    What do I do? I work in IT. Job title is “Technical Systems Analyst”, I also volunteer some time on a Reading in Schools program. But hey, I’m what I eat also!!

  19. I live on the GC but work at Victoria Point just to clarify. Most of the people I have talked to are voteing the same way this time as they did last. This includes Liberal, Labor and swing voters, but I don’t know everybody. I do find it intersting the number of kids at my school who have Union rist bands.

  20. Labor voters = Bludgers
    Liberal Voters = Productive workers

    I susgest Isabella doesn’t visit the Mine workers for I suspect they work harder and earn more than she does.

  21. I suppose we’ll have to wait for the full gory details of this poll. It would make it potentially much closer if the 12.9% undecideds were excluded. Annoying it doesn’t say. However, if thats the case then reasonably favourable preference flows and share of the undecided vote would see Labor’s tpp at 46-48. Only just out of striking distance and there would be a reasonable MOE. We are in for a different Australia if seats like McPherson become marginal in a fortnight’s time.

    I wish someone would let us in on what the alleged mistake has been with the poll.

  22. Hi All,

    I come from that neck of the woods and Gold Coast (Northern and Central parts) are traditionally Coalition territory. The Southern part of the Coast tends to be Labor.

    Eddy Saroff is hugely popular on the Gold Coast. He was a Councillor for many years and he wis well liked. He often gets ejected from the Chambers because he is a thorn in everyone’s side. Like some others on the blog, I think the Bully’s stats are a bit out.

    I regualarly go home for a visit (once or twice a week) my feel is that there is a definate big swing towards Labor. I would think, however, the Libs will hold on as there alot of diehard Coalition supporters in McPherson as well as all the rich newbies from Sydney and Melbourne who have moved to the Coast over the last few years.

  23. John Button. and Others.

    the demographics of McPherson have changed dramatically over the last three years.

    The place is just bursting with young children and young families. it is impossible to book a child into a private school, they are overflowing and there are a heap of them.

    The wealthy elderly predominately live in the northern electorates. the southern tip and inland hinterland that make up McPherson have a slightly less wealthy bank account. The self funded retiree are in the more northerly seats, McPherson have the average and pensioner groups at a higher number.

    The Gold Coast as a whole have, being a hospitality area would have the highest number of young people on AWA’s . The health system is busting at the seems, sure we know it is a State problem but who has sucked over a billion from the states heath grant when we all know that the cost of health has been rising.

    The environment is a hidden agenda here, McPherson with its beaches, the green behind the Gold, hinterland and the mountains are the reason people come to a place like McPherson and the young will protect it with all their might.

    The area has a high number of retirees, but they are slowly being replaced and numbered up by the young voter group the 18 — 29 group and we know that they are swinging hard to labor, about 67 –70 %

    On nearly every issue, that is a negative for Howard becomes twice the issue for McPherson because all the groups he has screwed over the last eleven years have settled here.

    Labor might not win it , but this seat is a real indicator of what is happening all over Australia where only some of the individual issue bite. here they all will.

  24. I reside in McPherson. and like many other posters regard the Gold Coast Bulletin as a rag unfit even to wrap the rubbish in. Interesting that they could not even get the name of the electorate right! There is a definite mood for change here, Margaret May is a non-event as a local member,the demographics here have changed and WC is a big issue for many. Conversely Saroff is highly thought of and well known via his Gold Coast City Council aldermanship as one of the few on that august body who resists the siren calls of the developers. The betting markets are reflecting this and I got on Saroff yesterday @ $3.50, so I get a double bonus if he wins.

  25. Basil, If you follow the betting market then Eddie must have been the biggest shortner in the market.

    It was not too long ago, a few months back when Margaret May was unbackable at $1.05 and Eddie the labor candidate was at 14 – 1.

    Now , you say he is at $3.50 and I believe he will shorten further .

  26. I got set @ $3.50 on Sportingbet yesterday, on the face of it crazy odds where the Libs have a margin of 15% and it is classed as VERY safe liberal.

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