Morgan face-to-face: 62-38

That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 62-38”

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  1. I agree

    After 10 consecutive interest rate rises, Howard admitting he can’t control inflation, and households increasingly stressed over rising food bills and petrol bills and facing reduced wages from Work Choices I find it hard to credit that 38% of Australians could vote for this lazy inept incompentant government.

  2. Gives lots of room for “huge comeback” headlines in the final week or so, of course. If it was Newspoll or Galaxy I ‘d probably suspect this sort of game more, though. Morgan usually over-rate Labor a bit anyway. If you take this into account it pretty much fits “the vibe”.

    Let’s face it. Howard et al are deeply charred toast. Who will we get? Abbott, Downer, Nelson or Bishop as the next Opposition leader?

    Cheers

    Rod

  3. Shows the narowing theory is out the window and may add to the bandwagon vote.

    Although this is difficult to believe now, I would not be suprised to see this or something like it on election night as the “mood for change” kicks in BIG TIME.

  4. aww come n glen . ill agree this is probably a tad too high but you never know this election could end up being the mother of all hidings. any way ill shout you a beer anytime you want because aleast you have stuck to your ideals and had a sense of humor sometimes. to use your signoff . lol.

  5. Does it get better than this (and I’m not talking about this sh@#e poll)? Howard’s day starts with sorrygate; gets going with Latham is a tool-gate (which he somewhat idiotically bought into late in the day), continues further with scumbag-gate; goes a bit more down the pipe with heckle-gate; and then any chance he may have to dispel aforementioned cr*p disapears with Ben Cousins-gate, and Police Association-gate in vic.

    Oh yeah, and then morgan gives him a double whammy. Although he (RM) may reflect on the sidom of putting out two polls on the same day which aren’t exaclty lined up …

  6. Where did they do this face to face poll?

    Let me posit a guess as to why they got such unreliable results.

    Morgan obviously conducted this poll in the following seats: Wills, Hunter, Gorton, Scullin, Batman, Hotham, Blaxland, Newcastle, Werriwa, Chifley, Grayndler, Cunningham, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Canberra, and Fraser.

    ‘Serenity Now, Insanity Later’!

  7. Agree with the comments above that this is an outlier.

    If these sorts of numbers were showing up in parties’ private polling, we’d be seeing much bigger shifts in the betting on marginals.

    Last time I checked Leichhardt – which would easily fall to Labor if this poll was to be believed – Labor was still well behind in the betting at 2.05.

    Until we see Labor candidates firm in the marginal seats these sorts of numbers can’t be taken seriously.

  8. Given that this poll was conducted before the interest rate rise, the result is clearly misleading: 78-22 is much closer to reality.

  9. Ok, so this is too high, just as 53 is too low. Polling is not an exact science. But the average of all this week’s polls is around 55, which is where the polls have been since August. This all just more evidence that the voters have made up their minds and won’t budge much in the next two weeks.

  10. Glen, I will happily agree woith you that this poll is rubbish. But you must concede that whoever is running your man’s campaign should be sent to the eastern front. Your blokes can’t put a foot right! All Ruddie has to do is keep breathing …

  11. 62-38 is definitely an outlier -even by Morgan FTF poll standards (it’s Labor’s best 2PP in ANY poll taken this year!)

    Still, even if you subtract 5% from the 2PP it’s clearly a Ruddslide win of 57-43.

  12. Centre – betting markets are dynamic systems and will respond in the short term to specific inputs. That doesn’t mean that at any point in time they reflect the ‘actual’ situation, just that people betting have a particular view. And since the people betting are p#$sing the Liberal Party’s money down the drain, they reflect, at the minute, that particualrly twisted version of ‘reality’.

  13. Betting markets are OK for the overall result but can be risky in individual seats.

    It is like the AFL grand final, most believed Geelong would win and they were favourites with the bookies, but the odds on which team would kick the first goal or point, which player would kick the first scoring shot and who would win the man of the match were more open.

  14. Well to be frank CL i don’t really think either side has campaigned well to be honest.

    The trouble is neither side is getting traction on anything really, voters are bored but Labor has a large lead this does not auger well for us Tories unfortunately. I am lamenting the shalacking ill receive from my Labor friends this is on top of the shalacking i get for us Tories being beaten 3 times in Victoria, nevertheless i still think ‘Unca Howie’ can pull it off if anybody can he can, after all Kevie says ‘Unca Howie’ is a clever politician lol!

    Nice to see the Ghost of Mark Latham returning to haunt Rudd, it’s a shame the media are so soft on the issue and hardly touched Rudd with a feather today. It’s sad that they don’t listen to a former leader when he says something but still a negative for KR today for sure.

    Still ‘Unca Howie’ is doing the best he can given the circumstances and he is the best man to be leading the Tories this time round, if we were around 10-8points down with 2 weeks to go id far rather want ‘Unca Howie’ than Deputy Dawg leading us that’s for sure.

    Regardless about how much this Morgan poll smells and it does to high heaven, it’s a very very bad trend for us ๐Ÿ™ !

  15. William with respect I think you have ‘absorbed’ the ‘kellying’ & sham-I-am matchbox-look-here-why it’s Dear Leader-rounding-up-the hoons-and saving us all from-err&err-oh and err or Sol on a high wire with match, not wobbling…
    etc.
    Go back to Nov & draw a bead…find the vanishing point.
    I think the punters have.

  16. Glen, yes it’s a very bad trend for you. I agree, the campiagn hasn’t been very inspiring. I don’t think Hopward is doing well at all, though, whereas Rudd has his lines down straight and keeps on message. The other thing, of course, is that the punters are clearly fed up with you guys. there’s no getting over that!

  17. Centre and CL: From what I read, we have to wait until Monday week to see how the betting markets firm, as that was about the time they firmed in 04.

  18. Centre, I may well be. But the likelihood is that it’s going to be somewhere between 54-46 and 56-44. And, again, we shall see!

  19. Rudd back in Boothby and campaigning heavily in SA in the last 2 days … a pretty good sign that Labor are homing in for the kill in Sturt and Boothby.

  20. Win News Sunny Coast poll “Has the federal govt. short changed coast roads” 68% YES.

    State Health Minister announces Clinical School for The Sunny Coast. ๐Ÿ™‚

    PS Glen. Morgan oversampled QLD ๐Ÿ˜›

  21. Wow – just seen the number.

    Glen’s Bull Butter seems on the money.

    Does anyone believe it. Still it’s more fun than an outlier that is 50-50.

    Pity though – so much for any sensible discussion on the poll tonight.

    Will Kroger and Cameron be on LL tonight?

  22. Centre – indeed, but each of these can be based on erroneous views. But, my point is that relatively thin betting markets can be influenced relatively easily. That’s all!

  23. Glen.. agree whoeheartedly with your view of the campaign.. but , as you know , that was exactly how Rudd wanted it to playout.
    I can’t believe the Libs are trying to make anything of Latham. I believe Bill Heffernan has more influence in the ALP than he does… and even the people who donkey vote know it!
    Of course Morgan polls are now, and probably always have been a crock of sh*t.

    Any how Glen, bear up till 24th.. you’re a braver little soldier than ever I would be. One piece of good news for you.. The NP vote was up by 25% (from 2% to 2.5%)

  24. The thing from the polls that seems to matter, in the case of Newspoll anyway, is the 28-40 per cent of respondents who have left their options open by ststing that they may to a greater or lesser extent change their minds aand vote for the other side. I suspect, and someone with more knowledge can correct me, the other polls are similar. In these circumstances, it’s difficult to draw any firm conclusions at all. I must say, however, the vision of JWH standing over some poor woman he’d just pork barrelled into unconsciousness is an image that will linger for a while.

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