Morgan face-to-face: 62-38

That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 62-38”

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  2. Have you ever seen a children’s entertainment puppet with a droopy nose?

    That’s me after reading this Morgan

    I agree its an outlier, but even so, it would need to be out by massive 10% for it to move back to landslide territory

  3. Autumn morning:
    And the Liberal hopes
    Blow away in the wind

    Yes, I’ve just got up. Another bizarre set of numbers. One day you’ll all look back at this time and laugh. Well, some of us will.

  4. This poll may well be crap – the views of a random 990. What is shows though is that the punters havn’t bought the big scare camapign. (BTW, that campaign is about to get even scarier.) It also shows that during elections polls don’t have to narrow – occasionally they can widen. Make no mistake, the undecideds could still make this a wipeout of historic proportions.

  5. Did I just see on the ABC news Costello refer to Kevin Andrews as “the good Kevin”?

    Oh boy, even “serious eleciton mode” Costello would have struggled not to break out the smirk at that statment.

  6. AnthonyL at #49 – just think of the victory for women in the Liberal Party. Overnight, they’d reach 40% of party representation. :p

  7. Gippslander the NP vote was probably an outlier at 2.5% lol!
    Still im sure that will be enough for Mark Vaile to jump on another skate board and wear his baseball cap backwards!

    Vaile is so uninspiring it is not funny, not to put the man down or nothing but he couldn’t hold a candle to John Anderson.

    AnthonyL if that really did happen i think its a certainty that the Nats could have as much if not more seats than the Liberals making them the official opposition and Tuckey could be the Liberal Leader with at least Sophie’s and Bronwyn’s vote to count on, that is simply ‘bizzaro world’ stuff though thank god that won’t happen.

  8. Do you wonder if when Gary Morgan got these numbers he went “oh sh*t this is really going to boost my credibility now…” SO then he sits down and writes the polling equivalent of a a** covering letter:

    “The issue of interest rates has not yet been fully played out in the political arena. The real question is how the electorate will respond to the latest interest rate increase — will they blame the Government and consider ‘record interest rates’ promises by Mr Howard, will they blame the global financial economy and look to the L-NP Government, as strong economic managers, to lead the country in the coming turbulent economic times?

    In other words, even I don’t believe these numbers, so please forget them until next week.

  9. At the last election, I was convinced Latham was campaigning for the Liberals. This time, I’m sure he’s switched sides. By criticizing Labor, he will make them look even better than they already do. No-one in their right mind can take Latham seriously. He is what I would like to describe as an absurd decoy player; running interference as a kind of free-lancing double-double-agent. The AFR have finally demonstrated they do have a sense of humour, even if it is from the dark side.

  10. Glen:
    [‘ It’s sad that they don’t listen to a former leader when he says something but still a negative for KR today for sure. ‘]

    I take it you have the same view of John Hewson and Malcolm Fraser when they discuss Howard?

  11. [occasionally they can widen. Make no mistake, the undecideds could still make this a wipeout of historic proportions.]

    According to Antony Green, the undecideds will break 2:1 according to the current trend. If the undecideds is 6%, that means 4 – 2 to Labor.

    The government needs to make that 2 – 4 to them, and even then they’ll probably lose.

  12. It’s probably been said – but tributes are owing to Peter Andren.
    This is a man who showed how to be conservative AND decent.
    It’s a shame there aren’t more of him in parliament.

  13. William started up this thread just when I’d posted something on the phone poll, so will reprise as I’m interested in what others think. Find the Morgan F2F hard to take seriously, and the phone has a sample of only 500 odd, so like others, tend to take more seriously the AC Neilson, which doesn’t bounce around so much and has a bigger sample. What I was thinking about was two things. One was Possum’s analysis of the relationship between the cashrate and Labor voting intention. Due to the heavily telegraphed probability of the rates rise, has this kicked in earlier than usual? My understanding being that there’s usually a lag in time. The other thing that may be in play is the increasingly shambolic Lib. campaign and behaviour of senior Libs. when they put their heads above the parapet, e.g. Abbott last week. As Kina nicely summarised on the previous thread, you’d be hard put going a ‘me too’ with them on anything currently, as it shifts with every day. Rudd, on the other hand, just stays ‘on song’, and my respect for Penny Wong just increases each time I hear her speak. She’s seriously good.

  14. when is dennis going to say sorry now that the car industry have called him a liar? making up stories used to be a nono if i remember.

  15. Yes, it is a free country and i am not a hypocrite. Asanque the media jumps all over ‘Unca Howie’ when they (Hewson and Fraser) come out to slam him. They run the story hard for at least a few days if they said something major, alas this doesn’t happen for the other side, oh well.

  17. I only wish tonight on LL they had Keating v Latham, but then they’d need to make sure the paramedics were onsight, so probably best not.

  18. BV – it’s unfortunate that Mr Shanahan is so incapable of balanced reporting.
    With the demise of the other papers around the Country (most notably the Herald), The Australian has actually become probably the most cerebral paper… it’s just that people like Dennis and that foreign affairs goose are not able to fulfil their role as they should.
    Matt Price is sorely missed

  20. Glen – let me say I do sympathise.
    i know how I felt in ’96.
    But you never know… this might end up like ’93, and sadly enough that was one of the best nights of my life.

  22. Centre @ 20,

    I think much of the firming for the Coalition in the betting markets was earlier this week after the 53-47 Newspoll.

    However in the last couple days, i.e. since the interest rate rise, the bookies have been quiet. I think the punters are waiting for the spate of post-interest rate rise polls, such as the next AC Nielsen poll – which I hear is rumoured to be 55-45.

    Still, even 1.39-3.15 in IASBet translates into the punters thinking Labor has a 70% chance of winning the election in a fortnight’s time. And according to Simon Jackman, the average of the bookies probabilities of Labor winning 76 seats or more at the election is even higher at around 76%.

    Anyway here are the odds from 8 different betting agencies at the moment:

    Centrebet: ALP = 1.36, Coa = 3.15
    IASbet: ALP = 1.39, Coa = 3.15
    Sportingbet: ALP = 1.32, Coa = 3.30
    Sportsbet: ALP = 1.37, Coa = 3.00
    Portlandbet: ALP = 1.33, Coa = 3.30
    Sportsacumen: ALP = 1.37, Coa = 3.10
    Betfair: ALP = 1.39, Coa = 3.45
    Lasseters: ALP = 1.37, Coa = 3.10

  23. 51
    BV Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 7:24 pm
    What do you guys make of Shanahan’s antics???

    ……
    In the good old days, he would have been called an “urger”: someone who would encourage others to enlist in the army, and yet enjoy an exemption from serving himself. He couldn’t care less about carworkers, carmakers or the truth of things. He is just not to be believed.

  24. [Glen: The Latham story is on the front page of each of the major papers.]

    Do you honestly think anyone will cast their vote based on anything Mark Latham says?

  26. blindoptimist, you’ve hit the head on the nail, or the other way round if you’re not drunk with euphoria over the delicious numbers flying over the blogosphere at the moment!

    For the drowning Howard to grab the passing corpse of Mark Latham to hold him up for a bit while the Ruddwave crashes over him is just too ridiculously funny to contemplate!

    Now the great Boof is a credible witness! And if I twist what he says, (that Rudd is in fact a conservative) I can tell the electorate to beware the hidden radical agenda hiding behind the mild Clark Kent exterior.

    There is nothing, I repeat NO-THING, even remotely approaching this for improbability on the movies or daytime soaps…it’s utterly incredible!

  27. Showson:

    Nope, no one will care.
    Shanahan and Milne will call it another turning point.
    Anyway, Latham trashed the Libs far more then he trashed the ALP.

  28. How about some tough questions to Rudd, Asanque let they let him off easy as usual and let him get away with his slogans to answer the questions but what does it matter.

    Michael i don’t know what would hurt more losing Government or losing 5 elections in a row? I’d probably pick losing 5 in a row any day.

  31. Glen to hear you complain about the presses treatment of former leaders is not worthy of you.

    You know that Keating gets more press than every other leader (including Howard and Rudd) combined when he has half a sentence in a 15 minute interview that admonishes Rudd.

    Fraser – nothing.
    Hewson – doesn’t he often contribute a column to the AFR? No one gives a damn.

  32. I am not a jurno Asanque, but the media have let off Rudd me-tooing on many coalition policies, let him get away with it once he’ll keep doing it and he has.

  34. Grog – you know as well as I do that every swinging voter in the country reads John Hewson’s articles.
    The AFR – the paper of choice for swinging voters!

  35. Glen @ 82, you gotta be joking! The median has let off Howard for 11 years!

    Give us all a break and pull your head out mate.

  36. [Anyway, Latham trashed the Libs far more then he trashed the ALP.]

    Exactly, but that isn’t the way it has been reported.

    [How about some tough questions to Rudd, Asanque let they let him off easy as usual and let him get away with his slogans to answer the questions but what does it matter.]

    You mean slogans, such as:

    “70% union bosses”
    “Union controlled”
    “Going for Growth”
    “Full employment”
    “Aspirational Nationalism”
    “Historic lows”

  38. Glen: If you are going to make a point, at least have the decency to flesh it out.
    1. Have you read Latham’s article?
    2. What exactly did Latham say in his article that was so critical of Rudd?
    3. Rudd has not me-tooed on Kyoto or Iraq.
    4. If you believe Howard’s policies are so good, and the ALP intend to implement some of them, what is the problem?

  40. Was Howard ever a good campaigner? He has been completely inept at both politics and policy since the previous election. It is as if the country took a step in one direction and Howard went another. All the smear campaigns, the silly lies about union domination and other fear stuff, and now a “radical” Rudd, etc., are so far off the mark, it makes Howard look like a fool.

    Ever since Howard got control of the senate, we have slowly watched him self-destruct.

    I don’t think that Rudd is doing the best job that he could on this campaign, and yet, he ends up looking brilliant because of the erratic and inept Howard.

    How the tables turn…

  42. Hey Glen think of the positive side to this outlier. Next week there will be this great headline saying ‘Libs back in the game’ with the numbers being 56 Lab – 44 Coalition TPP. Then you and your ilk will be saying ” Here we come.!!!”

  43. What are Morgan thinking? Surely, they must be wondering if their formula is right after this…

    I think the only way for them to get any credibility back is to have the final poll within a 1% margin of error.

  44. I have not read the Latham article. But the headlines regarding policy differences and the lack and the view that Greed dominates this election i totally agree with. Latham would have been a good Prime Minister because he would not have preached to lobby groups and the media dills. He would been in it for the ordinary folk. The current twosome are in it for themselves and the rich and he is generally right very little will change.

  45. Anthony L writes:
    “Brendan Nelson, Sophie Panopolos, Bronwyn Bishop and Wilson Tuckey left vieing for Liberal Leader – oh the humanity!”

    I reckon they should go with Wilson or Bronwyn, Anthony. Otherwise they’ll have their leader in a risky marginal seat like Bennelong again! 😉

    Bruce Scott as new leader of the Nats, perhaps, if they still qualify as a party?

  46. George:
    I think it will be
    1. non-core promises
    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=non-core+promise

    [‘Origin: Australian federal elections at the turn of the 20th/21st centuries. The conservative party (known as the Liberal/National coalition) made a number of election promises which were broken soon after the election. The prime minister, John Howard, attempted to explain this behaviour by claiming that some promises are “core” and some are “non-core” and thus, don’t count.

    Not only did “No tax increases, no new taxes” turn out to be a non-core promise, but in the campaign, Howard had also given a solemn undertaking that “I’m not going to break any promises”. That one was certainly non-core.’]

    2. Or the “Never ever” GST

    3. Or the Sorry, but not I’m not apologizing.

  48. Oh Glen, if you are unhappy with the media now, just wait until Rupert tells them that he always backs winners and that Ruddski if going to win. Oh yes, and it appears everyone in the developed world’s interest rates are going down except LET ME GUESS, MORE TIME PLEASE, OH YEAH COULD IT BE AUSTRALIA. YES ITS AUSTRALIA thanks to the world’s laziest treasurer.

  50. Whoops, should have looked at Bronwyn’s margin before I posted! Looks like it will have to be Sharman Stone. Heck, she could be the first person with an anthropology degree to lead the opposition!

    Cheers

    Rod

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