Morgan face-to-face: 62-38

That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 62-38”

Comments Page 3 of 14
1 2 3 4 … 14

  1. 76
    Kirribilli Removals Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 7:43 pm
    blindoptimist, you’ve hit the head on the nail…There is nothing, I repeat NO-THING, even remotely approaching this for improbability.

    …
    KR, it is a great spectacle to watch though, don’t you think? The supposed genius of Australian politics, undone by his own ambition, by full-grown contempt for his own party, by neglect of the issues and by his effortless deceptions of the public.

    And relying on Latham? The dissembling calling on the disgraced!

  3. I find it most amusing the way that Gary Morgan has buried this poll on his own site, without its own headline, and subsumed into the ‘phone poll item, which had a very small sample. He obviously doesn’t believe it himself, and just wishes it would go away. That being said, with a 95% MOE of around 3.4, it could just be an ‘unlucky’ (for his credibility) actual TPP of 58.5 or so, which could, more or less, be in the ballpark of the Galaxy and Newspoll efforts carried out at the same time.

    Oh well, we’ll see how it plays out in the fullness of time. It is certainly hard to spin it in any positive way for JWH.

    cheers,

    Alan H

  5. i put this on an earlier thread but think its vital we don’t lose track of this debate over how the Aus lied to the public today and got caught out

    and in my humble opinion, I think the fundamental reason for the 10 point gap we have seen for the last year is that cognitive dissonence ended when Rudd arrived:

    People can continue to believe Howard is a good guy and a lying rodent as long as there isn’t a reality check

    but once reality bites, then his tricks, lying, mean and tricky persona is exposed in stark relief…

    Thie following is in regard to dennis shanahan’s rubbish today….it deserves to be properly exposed…

    I have just had a chance to catch up with how Bongiorno at 10 and others have exposed Dennis Shanahan for the shonk we all knew him to be.

    Congratulations BushfireBill for following this up

    But when you read in the story this morning paragraphs such as:

    “The PM&C submission says it is “widely recognised that Australian car manufacturers are facing serious pressure, raising real questions about the long-term viability of at least two, and possibly three, of the companies”.

    “In essence, the question that the industry is raising is why would a Toyota, Ford or a General Motors in Tokyo or Detroit respectively want to invest millions in upgrading an Australian operation when they are facing higher labour costs, greater union militancy and the threat of more strike action when they can put their money into low-cost and highly efficient Chinese operations?”

    …you have to ask yourself, was the PM & C submission written by Peter Hendy or by a Liberal party stooge placed in the department to generate such rubbish, which frankly reads like something from an undergraduate Liberal student doing business studies at Bond Uni…

    With any little luck this story will “bell the cat” on the woeful coverage from our erstwhile national newspaper of record…

    I hope someone puts in a complaint to the Press Council

    And someone should also try and FOI the letter and its support material (that is, unless there’s a conclusive certificate on it already)

    And if the journos of the MSM had any balls they would be starting to direct questions to both the Treasurer, the Finance Minister, the Minister for Industry etc to see if they were made aware of this correspondence

    And directing questions to Shanahan himself…

    Come on fearless members of the 4th estate…..your credibility demands it….

    And BTW, frankly if you were a global manufacturing company would you be happy having your “brand” associated with “Team Howard”? and their ideological anti-union obsessions?

    I think not. I suspect that not even Ratsak wants the association….

    I really hope the media ask some hard questions of itself about this story, which – after all – led the front page of our national broadsheet and was clearly designed to set the agenda for the day and dovetails perfectly into the rhetoric and verbiage of the Coalition Government….

    Is Dennis Shanahan for real?

    I guess Paul Kelly is just happy he wasn’t lumbered or instructed to write this rubbish…

  6. 1. No
    2. He wrote that this election is “a Seinfeld election, a show about nothing” and that there is no real difference between the parties.
    ie confirming that Labor is only me-tooing.
    3. Actually on post-Kyoto he has, he was for it before he was against it, now he only supports it if China and India sign. Before he and Garrett said they’d sign post-Kyoto regardless. On Iraq, Rudd will keep hundreds of ADF troops there, his ‘pull out’ is just a slogan.
    4. Why go with a cheap and risky alternative when the original is a known quality performer; that’s why i’ll be voting for Adam Held and the Liberal Party in this election.

  7. Woooooohhhhhhhhh

    I am The Ghost of Mark Latham

    And I told you all I would be making a return

    WWWOooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Labor is going down Wooooowwwww

  11. Latham slags off Rudd by saying that the ALP will be even more conservative in office than they have been in opposition, and Howard tries to capitalise on it by saying “see, that proves that they will be more radical in office than they have been in opposition.”

    Is there any wonder that this story won’t get any traction for the coalition?

  13. LOL, poor old Costello was absolutely terrible on Sky today. No wonder he failed maths, said that 240,000 a year equates to 1,000 a day. Even his mate Speers was getting frustrated with him, now that he doesn’t get a free ride from the press any more he is being caught out on the tough questions.

    Most interesting point of the interview was that even though Speers asked him 3 times if he would resign if workchoices was made tougher after the election he flatly refused. Not a good sign for Tip and sure to get a run tomorrow 🙂

  15. 104 GL – it’s still there, they never gave it it’s own page (from what I can see) but this still remains:

    “The 12 point lead in the latest telephone Morgan Poll — conducted after the RBA announced an interest rate rise — represents an increase in the ALP lead of 3% compared to the previous telephone poll. However, it is still less than the 24% lead recorded in the last face-to-face Morgan Poll — conducted before the interest rate increase was officially announced, but after Tony Abbott’s gaffes and the increase in the latest CPI figures.

    LOL, it’s so damn biased – not a mention of Garrett. Oh well the Libs have newspoll, we have Morgan, and everyone looks at the ACN and Galaxy for a representation of reality.

  16. Anyone like to start quoting Fraser or Hewson to Glen? I can’t be bothered. Will swing as many votes as this Latham BS too.

  17. Glen @ 106 you’re clutching at straws to justify supporting and voting for a man (and party) who used poor refugees to win elections, went with the “coalition of the willing” which has directly/indirectly been responsible for over 650,000 Iraqi deaths (see Lancet), has been a global warming skeptic, and sought to change the fabric of Australian democracy.

    Good riddance to him and hopefully to Liberal power for a long time coming.

  19. Well, we bloggers have 3 polls taken last weekend:

    Galaxy 54-46
    Newspoll 53-47
    Morgan f2f 62-38

    Clearly, the Morgan f2f absolutely can’t be right. However, I did think that Newspoll would be better than Galaxy, as that’s been the general trend. I’d now put the position at around 56-44. Interestingly, on the “think will win” question, there’s very little difference between Newspoll and Morgan. Here’s the comparison:

    Newspoll 60% Labor win, 26% Coalition
    Morgan 58.5% Labor, 28.5% Coalition

    You would expect a big Labor “think will win” to coincide with a big Labor vote; this isn’t the case here.

  21. Murdoch and the all the corporate heads are laughing their heads off at present. Why? Because the Labor Party will let them continue on as before after the election. An election which to date has provided no progressive policies from either party – Yawn.

  23. Was just on The Wik looking at past elecitons – read this on the 1984 one:

    “The election was notable for the long ten week campaign, and for the high rate of informal voting for the House of Representatives, but decreased rate in the Senate (due to the introduction of the Group voting ticket).”

    10 weeks??? oh the humanity!!!

  24. Pardon me for daring to speak out against the commonly accepted wisdom, but what actual evidence (not opinion) is there that Morgan over-rates Labor in their polls?

    Is it not the case that out of the major polling companies, Morgan has been the most accurate in predicting the level of primary vote in their last poll before polling day over the last 5-6 Federal elections? (I vaguely recall some analysis on this somewhere in the blogosphere).

    That said, yes the 62-38 is most likely an outlier. But hey I’ll happily accept it as 4-5 points out and will be able to handle a 57-43 result.

    No new tricks for Howard. No messages that work for Howard. No more time for Howard.

    A Ruddslide of biblical proportions awaits Howard on his day of reckoning.

  26. Grog – 10 weeks sounds absolutely excruciating. my productivity at work is down by about half during this election – this is costing the economy shitloads!!!

  28. Ben Cousins had the right idea, 5 days of meth in LA has got to be better then this!

    at least the time would go fast 😉

  30. Grog-Ten weeks!! Is that even legal now coz the Rodent would have gone with ten if he could have? This was the bastard who chose six weeks because “Australia deserves a six week campaign”.

  31. Get Real, Shanahan’s deceitful attempt at creating a story to help support the Liberal Party (and implicating car manufacturing companies in the process) is an absolute disgrace. But for many of us here, it is not surprising, either for Shanahan or for The Australian. They have consistently proven themselves to lack credibility and integrity. The newspaper is a joke.

    I suggest that people send emails to The Australian to complain about this issue. They get away with twisting the truth and generally writing garbage because of the assumption that their readers are too dim-witted to know the difference between fact and fiction. They deserve a backlash.

    These were the only details I could find:

    Grant Holloway
    hollowayg@theaustralian.com.au
    Managing Editor – Online
    02 9288 2336

    Nic Hopkins
    hopkinsn@theaustralian.com.au
    News Editor – Online
    02 9288 2376

    If anyone has a better targeted email address, such as Chris Mitchell’s (editor-in-chief), then please post it up.

  32. George they weren’t all refugees many were illegal immigrants and our tough stance prevented other SIVEX disasters because people smugglers got the message. George we had to because we want to maintain ANZUS but also i think removing a brutal dictator was a good thing and how many hundreds of thousands would have died under a continuation of Saddam’s rule and then by his sons???
    George he has seen the light on climate change also.

  33. Although, for a change I will agree with both Glen and Latham and say that actually it’s been a very boring, and bad campaign so far. Tax cuts – and ther inflationary impact – have been about the policy hilight so far, and the rest of it has been based on minutiae that we all love and which bores most people silly.

    Fortunately this, IMNSHO, just confirms the notion that people are going to vote as they decided about 8 months ago and it will be 54+/46- at the end of the day…

  34. Thanks Kiwip, 3.15 for LIB is quite short.

    I have a feeling that this ACN poll, at this stage of the campaign, after the interest rate rise, with the betting been a bit quiet as you say, is going to shape the rest of the campaign as far of confidence is concerned.. There may be no further movement in the polls thereafter?

  35. [George they weren’t all refugees many were illegal immigrants and our tough stance prevented other SIVEX disasters because people smugglers got the message. George we had to because we want to maintain ANZUS but also i think removing a brutal dictator was a good thing and how many hundreds of thousands would have died under a continuation of Saddam’s rule and then by his sons???]

    Nice spin Glen, but pathetic in your attempt to justify what he did and how this government handled the whole affair. He vilified these people and let them drown to make a point.

    Illegal immigrants? You are surely delusional. Like there’s a nice orderly line you stand in to leave a country that is actively undermining your very existence.

  36. Yes, the Morgan is an outlier – but its an outlier in the wrong direction for the government.

    How many Govts pull off a victory when they get numbers like that from anyone two weeks before an election?

  37. Can’t wait for Nielsen and Newspoll over the next few days. And if, as Gary Morgan claims, the phone polls favour the LNP then ???
    And it hasn’t been the best of weeks…

  38. Martin B.. It is the stupid country with stupid politicians. Four weeks of kissing babies, gaffes which are not gaffes, debates in which neither side has anything meaningful to say and polls and more polls. Rudd to me is a dud but will be made into a Labor hero, and really is a corporate boy who believes in nothing.

  39. Yep Michael – but I guess back then, without the web, each issue would have got about a 7 days run in the media.

    I can’t remember the campaign. The 87 one I do, as I got kicked out of silent readin in Year 11 for singing the ALP theme song (Let’s stick together, let’s see it through) – yes I was a nerd – thank goodness I was good at sport!

    And for a trip down memory lane check out whinging Wendy from that glorious 1987 campaign (written by Bob McMullen!).

    Regardless of your leanings, it is a hoot – the figures mentioned are so minute they are laughable – an 8% Consumption Tax???!!! 3 cents in the dollar!!!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7L41KVnt9M

  41. Let it End:

    I also watched the interview that Speers did with Costello. What I found hilarious was when Costello tried to compare the current situation (4% Unemployement and 3% Inflation) with 1974 (4% Unemployment and 16% Inflation). I don’t dispute the facts, but being a trained economist myself I do recall that in 1974 that the price of oil went up by 400% in a month, triggering world wide staglation.

    I wonder what Johnny and Pete would do if the price of oil approached $400 a barrel over the course of the next month. At least then they could rightly blame rising oil prices for inflation. The irony of it all. You’d think a journalist would know some basic economic history (not to mention theory) to challenge the Treasurer’s interpretation of history.

  43. [George they weren’t all refugees many were illegal immigrants]

    Glen, it isn’t illegal to seek asylum, whether you like it or not.

  44. Possum analysed the crap out of the ‘Morgan Bias’ here:
    http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/07/08/analysing-the-poll-bias-morgan-vs-newspoll-part-ii/

    If you look at the first comment, you will see it was from me, and has since been pinched, out of context by Gary Morgan, and is quoted at the bottom of every one of his poll narratives. In fact, Possum skewered me in an answer when I repeated this comment here, on the same date.

    cheers,

    Alan H

  48. Irrespective of the veracity of the result, this is likely to have a disasterous effect on the morale of the coalition candidates and their campaign managers. Howard will try and reassure them that it’s an outlier and the party polling is good but, would they believe him? How many of them have the first idea about statistics?Isn’t the result more in tune with his earlier warning of disaster to the partyroom? And he’s been keeping the party polling close to his chest, so they will just have to trust him. Would he lie?

    Oh the irony.

  49. Of course Dario you are quite correct about that, problem is they came here illegally.

    Next topic.

    I think the only thing Dennis could come up with now to attack KR is a claim that Rudd is a Scientologist.

  50. [Don’t apologise. I still find myself humming “Raise the Standard” from 1980.]

    Ahh, a forgotton thing in Ellections Campaigns – the Humble Jingle.

    Even Renee Geyer snag for her supper for Fraser.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 14
1 2 3 4 … 14