Morgan face-to-face: 62-38

That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 62-38”

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  1. LABOR is holding its landslide lead in the latest Nielsen Online poll, but John Howard has narrowed the gap as preferred prime minister.

    The poll, with the ALP ahead 56 per cent (steady) to 44 per cent (steady) on a two-party basis, comes as Mr Howard was dogged yesterday by his own comments, and Kevin Rudd by those of one of his predecessors.

    The poll of 1428, taken between Tuesday and Thursday, had Labor’s primary vote down two points to 45 per cent since the last Online poll late in October, ahead of the Coalition’s 40 per cent (down one point). Mr Rudd leads as preferred PM, 50 per cent (down three), to Mr Howard’s 42 per cent (up three).

    Game over.

  2. The ACN poll suggests that the Greens vote has gone up a fair amount in 2 weeks, given that both parties’ primary votes are down yet Labor’s TPP lead remains the same…

  3. Glen, where do these 25 nuclear power stations fit into the election campaign or are you running away from them now?

    “As John Howard yesterday signalled efforts to fight climate change made some form of price on coal pollution inevitable, his nuclear review found 25 nuclear power stations located within kilometres of major centres of population on the east coast could supply a third of Australia’s electricity needs.

    Delivering his draft report, former Telstra boss Ziggy Switkowski signalled a high-level radioactive waste dump taking spent fuel from the 25 reactors – costing up to $3 billion each to build – could be located almost anywhere across the country.”,20867,20800026-601,00.html

  4. ESJ,

    A known Liberal sycophant touting for a position in the new order.

    Blessed is not quite the right word for someone pushing s*it up hill with a shoelace.

  5. Steve I would like to see 25 nuclear power stations IMHO i would love for Australia to develop its own nuclear capacity but as of now the Coalition doesn’t have a policy to achieve this goal.

  6. [ #597
    Been There Says:
    November 10th, 2007 at 12:04 am

    Paul K 508

    Does the 5% under Howard include the GST amounts? ]
    Yes, it includes the GST. Depending on what rules you use to calculate the amount given to the states you can argue it has increased or decreased. In number of dollars it has increased but in revenue percentages it can be argued that it has decreased.

  7. “But Swing Lowe ‘Unca Howie’ has closed the gap on preferred PM up 3 to 42 and Rudd down 3 to 50.”

    yep, apparently there are other equally important questions asked like:

    1. Who wears the better suit
    2. Who’s glass would you prefer
    and the all important
    3. Who has the healthier teeth

  8. Well GG

    I’ve never had to offer it or pay for it because its usually been offered to moi. Of course we arent all that fortunate.

    In the great sweep of history of course someone has to be the bedpan collector.

    Your metaphor amuses me too – very Freudian. Sounds like you could do with sometime on the couch?

  9. “621
    Edward StJohn Says:
    November 10th, 2007 at 12:14 am
    Well GG

    I’ve never had to offer it or pay for it because its usually been offered to moi. Of course we arent all that fortunate.”

    You’re not still going on about Alan Jones are you?

  10. [Your metaphor amuses me too – very Freudian. Sounds like you could do with sometime on the couch?]

    What is it with Liberal hacks who think Freud has anything to do with modern psychology or psychiatry?

  11. 615 Oh, I see no policy, just sneak nuclear power in like workchoices after the election if you happened to capable of winning. that will really be typical Liberal thinking. No wonder all the polls are against you.

  12. ESJ,

    It sounds like you need some Viagara eyedrops, so you can go to the room of mirrors and have a long, hard look at yourself.

  13. News Ltd is getting desperate: They are linking all major online sites to live conservative-biased Sky News election coverage. I hope that Rudd will not spare any time for the media organisations that have been obviously colluding to sink him.

  14. Steve you need to make a distinction i am not Howie.

    I support having 25 nuclear power stations and uranium enrichment facilities being built here.

    Howie supports nuclear power but probably wont get anything done in the 18 or less months he remains PM if if he wins.

  15. I took part in the ACN Online Poll, there was another question about preferred PM that gave a list of about five front benchers from either side, including the leaders. I’ll be interested to see the results from that question, it could be APEC all over again for the illiberals.

  16. everyone should pop a relaxatab… it’s cool, the good guys are winning – it’s friday night, sat morning for some… life is okay. Happy days will shortly be here again.

  17. “633
    Edward StJohn Says:
    November 10th, 2007 at 12:21 am
    No Voter Boy but I do still recall the 60 minutes interview where he said he still hadnt met the right woman.”

    I bet his mother was cut to the quick when she saw that.

  18. And how is this for a reading of insight:

    On the current odds and investment rules set by Howard and Costello, the Future Fund could invest by betting on the ALP to win the election but not the Coalition!!!

  19. exactly paul k -we are living in the last fortnight of the Howard government… this is a happy time! Hell! we survived! we got stories to tell the grandkids around the campfire! we _really_ oughta print t-shirts! We should be happy, we should revel!

  20. [I think you will find that Freud related “issues” to obsessions with bodily functions.]

    My point was that he is WRONG, he wasn’t right then, and he isn’t right now. I have no idea why Freud’s myths get repeated as if they are credible pieces of evidence that can be used to build an argument.

    Perhaps it is because making references to Freud is par for the course for people in the Humanities? Freud was completely wrong because he didn’t have any evidence to back up his claims. All he had was selectively chosen – and frequently contradictory – anecdotes derived from what people _could remember_ of their dreams.

    He also had a well documented habit of falsifying data, and completely omitting data that didn’t fit with his pre-existing theories. Yet he still felt he could describe psychoanalysis as a science of the mind!

    Why is it that this week Liberals have turned into post-modernists? You’ve got Howard acting as if he is Christian Metz, and run of the mill hacks working on the belief that Freud’s ideas still have any credibility.

    Maybe next week Howard will start quoting Lacan who combined semiotics with psychoanalysis, not to mention equally bizarre excursions into topology.

  21. “649
    ShowsOn Says:
    November 10th, 2007 at 12:36 am

    Maybe next week Howard will start quoting Lacan who combined semiotics with psychoanalysis, not to mention equally bizarre excursions into topology.”

    No, that was Latham today, when he said there was no differance between Howard and Rudd. (Sorry, couldn’t resist. I’ll get me coat…)

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