Morgan: 56-44

Curiously, all we have from Morgan so far is a small-sample telephone poll conducted over the past two nights showing Labor’s lead at 56-44, about half way between last week’s face-to-face and the previous phone poll a fortnight ago. The press release continues to assure us that “the ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week”. So where is it?

UPDATE: Morgan have just added a new poll from the same sample covering attitudes to the Tamar Valley pulp mill, so maybe they’re not done for the day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

429 comments on “Morgan: 56-44”

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  1. This “local crime” thing is a joke to us, BUT… what about the other 99.99% of the population who think the Federal government has the constitutional power to control absolutely everything?

    Basically these ads are asserting that only a LIBERAL government can fix up every local problem from car hoons, to potholes, to break-and-enters down at the suburban mall.

    Yeah, yeah… I know it’s a joke… but what is Labor’s counter?

    We don’t want to see Howard at the 2010 election explaining why his promise to clean out local crime in 2007 wasn’t his responsibility (a la interest rates)… we want to see him out the week after next.

    I would rather have a rodent-free world than one where the little bastard gets another chance to spin his wat out of trouble in three years’ time.

  2. The All Ords index rose again today, after yesterdays bath. Good news. We don’t want to see a stock market crash playing into Howard’s hands in the next two weeks.

    The unemployment figures should have been a negative for him too, if the journos had been doing their jobs. Instead Howard and Costello somehow got away with claiming that a 4.2% to 4.3% RISE in unemployment was a plus for them. Amazing.

  3. Speaking of the ABC blog, I posted there concerning my epic battle with the OZ on the blatant censorship that almost came to litigation.

    This was a victory for all the bloggers.

  4. “Shopper KO’d by Howard scrum” in the Advertiser. I thought it said “scum” at first and they’d finally said what we have all been thinking.

  5. We’re two weeks out from a federal election and the bloody ABC has effing cricket on from dawn to dusk, and Nine headlines with Ben Bloody Cousins, a drug-addicted football player from an obscure W.A. football team who enjoys hitting the coke in the off-season.

    What is this damn country coming to, that this garbage heads the TV news two weeks out from a federal election?

  6. [ This “local crime” thing is a joke to us, BUT… what about the other 99.99% of the population ]

    It’s a joke to everyone not just to us. Don’t panic. All the Libs have left is fear but the public aren’t buying it anymore.

  7. F2F was 990 people. Morgan needs to up the number of people they poll, especially in the next 2 weeks. Newspoll, ACN and Galaxy seem to be doing at least 1500 for phone polls

  8. It will be interesting to see how cargate pans out. If this is just a coalition stunt then it’s a high risk exercise. I would guess this means their internal polling shows they are behind in Corangamite and they need to put jobs in the car industry on the agenda even if it means getting busted for lying.

    Any other data on how Corangamite is travelling?

  9. Hey BB (353), the Libs won’t be enjoying the lack of political coverage either. They are a long way behind and there’s no way they can catch up if they’re not in the news.

    They’ve only got 15 more days to try and change a lot of people’s minds, and every day devoted to Ben Cousins is another day lost for the Libs.

    You can be sure that the Saturday papers will be all about Cousins and politics will take a back seat.

    Both parties will try and grab headlines on Sunday though.

  10. A suggested caption for the photo of Howard standing over the fallen woman in post (209)

    I told you I’d smack you in the mouth if you mentioned interest rates again.

  11. Settle BB; @ 6.45pm on the 24th you may have one & one only as Mr Green says the rat trap has snapped. Think of Ms Maiden as you drawback…or whatever.

  12. Howard has said he is NOT Sorry for knocking over the old bag.

    Afterall, she put herself in the way… and internation factors and the drought were probably the real causes anyways!

  13. Possum is suggesting they have info that face to face morgan has come in at 61-39!!!

    Libs would want about an 8% margin of error for that to be less than suicidal news,

  14. [ 361
    Kate Ellis for PM Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 6:14 pm
    My prediction: If Sri Lankans win the test in Brisbane, Howard will win the election. ]
    My Prediction: If Phar Lap wins another horse race Howard will win the election.

  15. WFK

    “F2F was 990 people. Morgan needs to up the number of people they poll, especially in the next 2 weeks. Newspoll, ACN and Galaxy seem to be doing at least 1500 for phone polls”

    Still if the starting point is 61%

    take off the MOE – 57%
    take of the supposed “Morgan bias” 55%

    still happy with that 🙂

  16. MOrgan has no such poll on its site and the firgures do not sound realistis, so i will rely on the credible comentary of Mr Baggins

  17. The footage on tonight’s commercial news bulletin (channel 7 I think) summed it up well.

    Rudd at a mall getting mobbed by teenage girls.
    Howard at a mall standing dumbfounded over the fallen lady.

  18. Before I get accused of the H word, I want to state I believe this poll is an extreme outlier. Anyway, given that and the result of 62/38 we end up with: 134/14/2 (ALP/LNP/IND). 14 people isn’t enough for a game of rugby union. Perhaps Rudd could select the PM XI for cricket out of the 14 people from the opposition.

    I don’t believe it. I still think it will be very close, and I still hold my 78 to the ALP.

  19. Agreed Will, these polls do not shift my own prediction of 82-66-2. And BBDave, the f2f is under the same heading as 56-44 phone poll at morgan.

  20. Big Blind Dave: The info about the F2F has been added to the phone poll. Just reread the phone poll page (do a refresh if you need to).

  21. 334
    middle man Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 5:55 pm
    the F2F lead is 24% and that was before the rate rise! weird sh*t.

    Yes, but the cpi numbers were out (so rate rise was “in the cards” and it also reflected Abbots day from hell too 😉

  22. BBD @ 372…The morgan site does carry these results from about 1000 voters, but is making more out of the much smaller phone survey. Morgan are putting their usual inflection on things, more or less saying their own results are not to be trusted because they show the Liberals so far behind.

  23. Howard and the libs are reaching desperation point, we got the ad saying that NSW government is soft on crime as others have noted it is running in other states too.

    The libs have tried this before when they had no policies and no idea, they ran similar about 12 -15 years ago in state election saying labor was soft on drugs, they ended up getting walloped.

    Howard has to be getting his campaign advice from the Exclusive brethren to run this tactic, it is a seven plagues scare campgin straight from the Exclusive Brethren bible.

    Vote labor and fertility rates will drop, divorces will increase, sodomy will be rampant, drugs will be freely available, union bosses will return, interest rates will soar and businesses will close.

    We have even had Danny, from “Catch the Fire” say God appeared to him in a dream saying only the liberals can save Australia.

    This sort of campaign may look good to the Exclusive Brethren and the extreme religous right but it is more like one that the mullahs would run in Afghanistan or Pakistan.

  24. I like reading Glens stuff- otherwise we sound like some sort of mutual apreciation society- I am pretty sure Glen is the screen name for the Andrew Landau bloke anyway- rant rant rant- you know deep down i am right!

  25. 374

    It’s an outlier. A primary of 54.5% is just too good to be true. I think you’re wrong on the 78 seats, though. I said 99 a few weeks back, but I think realistically it will be closer to 90.

  26. Re 346,

    Grog Says:

    November 9th, 2007 at 6:00 pm
    Sydney 9 News – not one mention of Latham in the headlines – all Ben Cousins

    They had it as the lead story in their political news, but after Cousins, they covered a couple of NSW/Sydney specific stories before they went to politics. When they did cover it though, they showed him watching and walking away, he didn’t turn back at all. They also showed with video and audio the hecklers as well, so we got it not first story, but we got the whole show ……

  27. There was a young fellow called Dolly
    Who pretended that he was a polly
    He said Mr Rudd
    Was a show-offish dud
    Now who’s going to look a right wally?

  28. Scotty: I’m being conservative with my 78 to the ALP. I took the ALP 18 seat gain in 98 and used it for this election. In 98 the ALP didn’t win, but 18 seats would give them a win this time. I would love a landslide win, but I’m trying to keep my feet on the ground at the moment.

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