Morgan: 56-44

Curiously, all we have from Morgan so far is a small-sample telephone poll conducted over the past two nights showing Labor’s lead at 56-44, about half way between last week’s face-to-face and the previous phone poll a fortnight ago. The press release continues to assure us that “the ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week”. So where is it?

UPDATE: Morgan have just added a new poll from the same sample covering attitudes to the Tamar Valley pulp mill, so maybe they’re not done for the day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

429 comments on “Morgan: 56-44”

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  3. Dazza

    If what you are saying on F2F is right they are in big trouble, personally I thought that non-liberal voters would be more reluctant to give their views to a stranger over the phone.

    I linked to articles in an earlier post on the climate of fear that Howard has created for speaking out, including David Marrs article on “Careful he might hear you”, the legal campaigns against whislteblowers and critics of Howard, and charities that lose their funding and status if they criticise the government.

    People have more to lose by giving their opinion against Howard to a stranger over the phone than they do supporting him.

    I have not seen any evidence of any business or person who suffered because they expressed support for Howard, but there is plenty for those who criticise him.

    As for the final result, the average of the Morgan F2F and phone poll is around 57.5%, I don’t see why this cannot happen, it has happened before.

  5. I do a f2f poll most nites. No moe permitted.

    61/39 is obvioulsy an outlier and I believe there was a similar Morgan one in 2004 for Labor. It does however serve to put pressure on LNP HQ and the nervous rats therein who might just start eating their young.

    The more serious one is the Nielsen – 53.5/46.5 is what Laborites are hoping for as a miniumum. Anything less will make everyone sleep a little less. I think we may in a codependent relationship with AC Nielsen.

  10. Spiros 278

    +60% is fanciful, but I wouldn’t right off the chance of a high 50s. My job puts me in constant contact with all sorts, rich, poor, farmers, professional workers, miners,employers, aboriginals, in fact you name a demographic, and I would know someone in it. For a year now I ask almost every single person their political thoughts, and I am talking about 1,000s of people and not one person has said they will be voting Coaliton after voting for Labor last time, but I can say that I have spoken to about a thousand people that will be doing the reverse or at least change to the greens and a lesser extent The Dems

    This election is gonna see a swing never seen before, no seat under 13% is safe

  11. “I’m gonna sit right down and write myself a letter” Dept.…

    Dennis Shanahan’s article this morning about trouble in the car industry has been being spruiked all day by Howard and Costello as showing how allegedly disastrous a Rudd government would be for employment in the motor vehicle industry.

    Somewhere in the middle of Shanahan’s article (you can find it here: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22727906-11949,00.html) the quotation marks segue from quoting the actual submission of the car makers to quoting a write up (more like a beat up) done by the Prime Minister’s own PM&C Dept., saying we’re all doomed if Rudd gets the guernsey.

    Only problem is, according to Paul Bongiornoon TEN news, the car industry said no such thing.

    Apparently (and I know you may find this hard to believe) PM&C sat down, wrote itself a letter and then gave it to Shanahan to splash all over the front page of The Australian this morning.

    The bullsh*t story was actually still there on the front page until about 5:15 this afternoon and was then mysteriously removed… in fact it was removed just after Bongiorno’s piece to camera on the TEN news debunking the whole thing.

    Hmmm….

  12. Kina why do you see AC Neilsen as the most reliable?

    According to what I have read in papers punters look towards Newspoll.

  13. Howard to Old Lady:

    “And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my legacy.
    And you Woman will know I am your Master when I lay my vengeance upon you.”

  15. The Australian motor industry’s peak body has categorically denied a report which Coalition heavyweights have used to cast doubts about its future under a Rudd government.

    The report, on the front page of a News Ltd. newspaper, stated that the viability of “two, or even three” car makers was in doubt, threatening the jobs of up to
    7000 workers.

    “These claims and other claims made in the article about the industry’ s representations to Government are wrong,” he said.

    “No such letter exists, nor has there been any industry discussion on industrial relations matters as suggested in The Australian’s story,” he said.

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/car-industry-refutes-report/2007/11/09/1194329492589.html

  16. What’s that old argument the pollies use to justify their pay rises? If you pay peanuts you get monkeys.

    What will you get if you pay your hospital board members nothing?

  17. RGee are you sure and when?

    As I heard him on the radio recently during the Police pay claim he was going off about workchoices

  22. On this thread

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086436.htm

    in reference to the blogs and blogging, Pi says:
    09 Nov 2007 2:11:57pm
    Dare I say it… the 5th estate?

    It would seem so. The blogosphere is coming of age, and is starting to flex its muscle.

    Socrates:
    http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

    98
    Kina Says:
    Just wait and see, if Howard loses this election, the Liberal party factions will break out in a show of self destruction. The ultra-right faction, currently hidden dark corners, which has the party by the throat will either make them unelectable for a decade or be ‘excised’ like a melanoma.

    I also think that is exactly what is going to happen. It is long overdue.

    103
    Bushfire Bill Says:
    Col, give yourself a few days and you’ll be barking at the moon like the rest of us.
    I’ve even given up smoking so I can shout louder at the television.
    Toughen up, son. It’s a rodent hunt.

    Time to unleash the rodent hounds?

    Peachy 134, and BV 211
    Beautiful. Best yet on this site.

  23. John of Melbourne – Actually, I can go find out. I will get back to you on Monday. My understanding is he is (unbelievably) a member of the liberal party.

  24. Just when I thought Liberal TV ads couldn’t get any worse, I just saw one a few minutes ago on channel 10 in Adelaide. Basically it went along the lines of:

    “Mike Rann is soft on crime”
    “Imagine what it would be like with wall-to-wall Labor governments”
    “David Fawcett is tough on crime”

    Say all that in about 10 seconds and you’ll get the idea. Laaaaaame.

  26. Having dealt with hospital boards, the type is person who would go on one for free would be failed politicians, failed health administrators and a few do-gooer busybodies with lots of time on their hands because no-one else will have them.

  27. Sham-I-am runover; PM not sorry, election rival ‘gay’: Just Over the ‘Moon’;
    Sorry B Double team jacknifes…
    Grow for Goth trainwreck
    What a day!

  30. 316: I had the same add in Wollongong, but with Gary Narn as the ‘tough on crime’ thing.

    Because, you know – it is the FEDERAL governments responsibility for local crime.

    Who do you think will handle the local crime clean up, the AFP or Special Operations Command?

  31. @ 306

    Old Lady to Howard: Yes, I know. Shocking. I know. But the trouble is your majesty, I can’t trust you anymore (even though I think you’re handsome). I don’t even believe in god. And the worst of it: somewhere on the road from welfare to work, I had my purse stolen! Oh, these are bad times, your majesty, bad times indeed.

  32. “305
    John of Melbourne Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 5:37 pm
    Kina why do you see AC Neilsen as the most reliable?

    According to what I have read in papers punters look towards Newspoll.”

    I was just looking at AC Nielsen and Newspoll for 2004. Nielsen had the result fairly well represented three polls before the election. Newspoll never gave any indication of a LNP win – at any stage.

  33. Not the other Tim: There was a similar one here in Melbourne for a local member. The Libs are really loving the mixing up local and state issues in to federal issues.

  34. In all seriousness, I believe the shenanigans of Shanahan represent the tip of an iceberg of deliberate misinformation, downright lies, pro-Liberal spin and pure malice on the part of media organizations in this country. The scores of examples quoted here and in other forums demonstrate the depth of the problem. It is against the interests of people in a democratic country to have the mass media controlled by such a small number of proprietors. Hopefully their time is about up as agents of influence if online collaborative sites like this continue to grow in number. I really urge people not to buy newspapers in particular. Its th eonly language those people understand.

  35. Not the other Tim @ 316

    in Melbourne we got the same ad with our own no-name local candidate subbed in as being the only one tough on crime lol

    this Lib campaign is becoming unbelievably inept.

  38. Face-to-face Morgan Poll

    On the weekend prior to the interest rate rise, primary support for the Coalition was 34% (down 5% from the previous face-to-face Morgan Poll), while support for the ALP was 54.5% (up 5.5%).

    With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote was ALP 62% (up 4.5%), L-NP 38% (down 4.5%).

    Support for The Greens was 6% (down 1.5%), Family First 2% (up 1%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 0.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2.5% (up 0.5%).

    A majority of electors (58.5%, down 0.5%) thought the ALP would win the next Federal election, while (28.5%, down 0.5%) thought the L-NP would win and 13% (up 1%) couldn’t say.

    Fifty per cent (down 6%) thought Australia was heading in the “right direction”, while 30.5% (up 0.5%) thought Australia was heading in the “wrong direction” — 19.5% (up a significant 5.5%) were undecided.

    Twenty-three per cent (up 1.5%) of all electors said Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet said they would vote Labor if an election were held today.

  39. 318
    Diogenes

    Absolutely right.

    In part, this is just a money saving exercise from Howard. He doesn’t want to pay for full-time professionals to do the job.

  40. From the Kevin07 teams newsletter :

    Last Orders

    Sadly the time for buying your Kevin07 gear is running out. You have until midnight Thursday 15th November to get your T-shirts, stickers, balloons, badges or car flags.

    So if you want to be wearing yours on election day, get your order in now – and remember to tell your mates.

  43. That exposure by the Auto Industry of PM’s dept fabricating stories to be run by loyal lap dog ShameAHam is evidence of just how corrupt this Govt is. Will be interesting to see how the GG responds to being caught out.

  46. 332 Megan cancellation of SMH in progress.

    Good to hear. I haven’t bought a Worst Australian for 3 years. Its easy once you have started. Bit like giving up smoking, as Bushfire will tell you in a couple of months….keep up the good work BB.

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