Morgan face-to-face: 62-38

That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 62-38”

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  7. Glen

    I agree, it will be tight and Turnbull may well hold on – I read somewhere else here that the ‘real’ margin is about 4.5%, so looks in line with other NSW marginals. Makes for a fun night, regardless of which side of politics you support.

  8. [ #
    499
    Xamiam Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 11:14 pm

    Econocrat can you confirm/refute that while Commonwealth share of total tax take has risen over the last decade its share of grants to states has fallen (somehow disentangling the shift to GST…) ]
    .
    .
    Total payments to the States has fallen from 7% of GDP to 5% of GDP under Howard.

  13. yay Adam @ 500….agree!!!!!!

    Speaking of aptitude of a candidate – Andrew Southcott would have to be one of the most useless & lazy candidates I have ever had the misfortune to meet. He is the one treating Boothby voters as idiots. I would much rather Nicole Cornes. If that what it takes to get rid of the Rodent et al. then so be it! Bigger & a more pragmatic agenda here people….

    Good night, can’t be bothered with all the vitriole on this blog.

  14. Didn’t Laura Tingle make her reputation in 93, when she was one of three Journos across the land to predict Labor’s win? One of the few really compelling analysists going around IMHO.

  15. I wonder if they followed with the question of whether Australia was “headed in the right direction”.

    They’d probably get about 80-20 “Yes” response on these figures.

  17. Al, Andrew Southcott is not lazy he’s busy every night Parliament sits thinking about what dorothy dixer he can ask Peter Costello or the Prime Minister the next day. He’s a hard worker and the only Tory who can out dorothy dixer the lot of them. LOL!

  19. [I understand Bingle has been promised Barton in 2010 if she allows a certain party powerbroker to paw her.]

    Sorry, it’s been set aside for Robert McClelland Jr.

  20. Lol Adam,

    Surely your snarly mood of last week has dissipated by now?
    Your winning! Victory, spoils of office await, witchhunts etc etc

    Anyway accusing someone of being h*mos*xual is not even defamatory in NSW anymore

  23. Marktwain, i hope it does work on election night because if things don’t go well for the Tories it will be ‘Serenity Now, Insanity Later’.

    Sure alcohol will play a role, maybe watching the 2004 coverage afterward if the 2007 coverage doesn’t go my way or maybe watching ‘Downfall’ perhaps all could be watched.

  25. Voting for howard doesnt disqualify her Adam, it just makes it harder to take her seriously as having a coherent political perspective. If people buy her going to parliament cos she was “blind and can now see” then so be it – an idiots vote is worth the same as any other.

  26. Glen I spent three years on and off in Canberra and I saw Southcott ask about four questions in that time. He’s not only a log he’s a lazy log. In fact most of the SA backbench are logs. Secker is invisible, Wakelin hardly says a word, Draper is worse than useless. Richardson and Fawcett at least try, but they have always known they were oncers. We only have to put up with the log Sawford, but he’s retiring.

  27. Ed @ 520. I don’t think Adam was accusing you of being h*m*s*x*al. More of a passing phase during the Liberal Party preselection process, which is rather like prison behaviour.

    And I doubt anyone would cross the floor after being mounted by Alan Jones.

  29. Thanks Paul K (@ 508) – am I right in thinking this is in conjunction with a shift in the overall take from states to Commonwealth?

    I’d expect you to know 🙂

  31. 520
    Edward StJohn

    Accusations are not defamatory, Ed, but agreeing to be s#d#mised by Big Al should definitely be on the statute books.

  33. No but Rudd is trying to give ‘Unca Howie’ an atomic wedgie right now.

    The wedge (fear) campaign could work though, im just waiting till the ALP brings out an ad showing a lovely neighbourhood and then pans out till you see a nuclear power station in the background and then something like is this what you want or something grrr the wedge is powerful but let’s hope they dont go for a fear campaign after all Kevie said they wouldn’t.

  34. Are you saying Voterboy, that a heteros*xual enclosed with other heteros*xuals will practice homose*xuality?

    I understand in fact that one candidate mentioned in the threads coming from the same state as an alleged homos*xual minister got preselection for the ALP due to her se*ual escapades with a “powerful” state minister in that State?

  35. There are no rules about what is defamatory: anything can be defamatory if a lawyer can persuade a jury that it is. You try writing a letter to the SMH saying “Alan J*nes has sex with men in public toilets” and see how far you get.

    PS I’m in an excellent mood thanks. I love the smell of napalm in the morning, politically speaking.

  36. Tell you what, when this election is done and dusted and Howard is dispensed to the dustbin of Labor interpreted History, the Liberal campaign performance will be documented through a great new series called “The funniest Home Politicians”.

  37. 533 Where is the Liberals Nuclear power policy Glen? Why not release it now? Who is going to get a nuclear power plant in their back yard apart from Bribie Island?

  38. Not true Adam,

    It is no longer defamatory in NSW to call someone a {insert descriptor) {insert simile for homos*xual].

    It kind of makes sense if we have formal equality (apart from the 57 laws or whatever) and we have decriminalised the love that dare not speak its name it makes sense that you cant defame someone by accusing them of being a practioner?

    Good to see you are chipper Adam, are you going to get a job in Canberra?

  41. 534 Ed. If I were trapped in a Liberal Party preselection meeting, I’d happily practice homos*uality to relieve the goddamn boredom and sheer horror (on the proviso my unnatural lusts could be sated by someone entirely unrelated to the event – a janitor, perhaps).

  42. They don’t have a policy on nuclear, ‘Unca Howie’ likes nuclear that’s all.

    Steve there could be 25 in the future so we all could be so lucky!

  43. Labor have slowly started introducing the Nuke talk. At the time Howard brought up Nukes I thought it was the start of the end… seems it was the case.

  46. Let you in on a secret, Glen. When I get drunk and despondent, I like to watch the 1993 True Believers speech. I seem to have watched it again and again and again and …

  48. I was thinking of the Paris embassy, actually, but I guess Gough has dibs on it. He’s 91 and the last time I saw him he was full of beans and bon mots.

  49. [They don’t have a policy on nuclear, ‘Unca Howie’ likes nuclear that’s all.]

    That isn’t just it. if re-elected Howard is going to make it legal to start nuclear power companies in Australia, which is currently unlawful.

  50. ESJ,

    You are becoming a cranky, old losing troll. Where is the wit? Where is the insouciance.

    Ah, all gone because your side is losing the election.

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