Morgan face-to-face: 62-38

That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 62-38”

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  1. Jasmine

    Ah the iron cage of gender stereotyping..

    I could reply to all of your points but I really cant match your level of kant and hysteria. I’ll Just answer the last point which really is the crux of your rant about my sexism:

    “I beg to differ the fact that she is a woman seems to be the ONLY thing you have to distinguish her from the other candidates you are not attacking.”

    THat has got to be one of the silliest remarks i’ve come across on PB. I DO attack other thickheaded, airheaded, bankrupt, thoughtless and all together useless members of parliament. Nicole’s not alone and the fact that she’s a women is of no consequence. I’ll send you the transcripts if you like. Maybe you’ll defend them just as loudly.

    But feel free to go on throwing the sexist tag out wherever you see the need – youre obviously vigilantly and only slightly hysterically fighting the good fight…

  2. Trifid
    re; unreheared responses in parliament…
    just like Our Pauline perhaps?

    This is a ridiculous discussion.
    Just because a woman is blonde and attractive shuld not negate her capacity as a political figure.
    And just because she is attractive and plitically hopeless should not mean she cannot be criticised for fear of being seen as sexist either.
    I do not know Mrs. Cornes – although I have seen pictures of her, and she is v. attractive.
    This has no bearing on whether or not she is a good candidate.
    I have however, heard she is as dumb as duck shit when it comes to dealing with questions in the political arena (which is what you do as a candidate)- despite her status as a Learned Colleague… plenty of excellent conveyencers and contract lawyers out there, but doesn’t make them good politicians Jasmine.

  3. Tingle is thinking – whoo-hoo!

    La Troll doing her best to make it a 2 on 1 – is she has a bigger role on Lateline then I’m going to…don’t know what!

  4. 401
    mad cow Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 10:32 pm
    The economy has now emerged as the dominant issue. Yup…}

    Howard only his this left now and is stuffing it up big time.

    {Prime Minister John Howard says he is more optimistic about the outcome of the federal election now that the focus of the campaign has turned to economic issues.

    Despite Labor’s continuing dominance in the opinion polls, Mr Howard says Australian voters are now thinking about the implications of a union-dominated Labor government.

    He told Southern Cross Radio he is more focused than ever on winning.

    “I don’t contemplate the possibility of losing. Particularly now that there is a focus on economic management,” he said.

    “Economic management is still the dominant thing. I don’t think this election is by any means done and dusted as many commentators think.

    “I think they’re misreading the public and I think the Coalition has a very strong change of winning.”}

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086260.htm?site=elections/federal/2007

  5. #405
    Enema Non-Conversant

    You still haven’t apologised for kicking over my sand castle yesterday, so b#gger orf.

    And since when has Dennis ever had any credibility? My argument has always been that he is not the media: he is just a very small, very bug-eyed, very [insert defamatory statement here] member of the media.

    Now, who wants to hang bull on Laura Tingle? Dare ya.

  6. Wether its fair or unfair the MSM have picked up a weakness in Nicole Cornes and are exploiting it every chance they get. I reckon wether she wins or not doesn’t matter, the fact she has a high profile and money to chuck into the campaign for labor, creates a situation where the libs will spend money defending boothby, and thats money would rather spend elsewhere. Same in Bennelong but i will admit maxine is a way better candidate. wether or not labour win either of these seats JWH is cactus. maxine will fair well in a by election if she doesn’t get in this time.

  7. [Onselen is a Howard supporter, but not a rabid one.]

    He’s a small l Liberal, he said so himself on Sunday.

    He’s the kind of voter who will vote Howard in order to get Costello. Why exactly Costello counts as liberal I have no idea. He is tax and spend just like Howard.

  8. [Wether its fair or unfair the MSM have picked up a weakness in Nicole Cornes and are exploiting it every chance they get. ]

    To be fair, they’ve gotten stuck into Southcott as well, saying he is invisible, and hasn’t achieved anything in parliament.

  9. Is Onselen in a 1 or 2 week time warp? Things might start to unravel – WTF happened this week you TOOL!
    Tingle rebuts with reality.
    La Troll throws down a wedge.
    Tingle puts Troll in her intellectual place (without the Troll even realising….)
    Troll handballs woefully to Onselen again…

  10. how amusing that Jasmine thought because i was disagreeing with her I must be like Glen, ie a Lib voter. Hilarioous! and presumptuous!! I’m as left as left. Too funny. I just dont like real elitism in any sense.

  11. If a journalist fabricates a story should the be dismissed. Is there anything a journalist needs to fear? Except upseting the Howard govt?

  12. Glen

    I guess it’s a bit harder to take into account King’s vote after the redistribution as those (now) included booths didn’t get to vote for him last time if they had wanted.

    But if we have Liberal 44, Labor 36 that leaves 20%. The redistributed Green vote was 13%. This would make it about 52/48 (i.e. 50/50 is in MOE of the poll) Turnbull/Newhouse so still very much in play. I think the Greens can do better than that, given the pulp mill so one to watch.

  13. The thing is, the ABC does have some really good people who could host Lateline. Leigh Sayles, Emma Alberici, Ally Moore. Let’s give them a run and shunt La Trioli to the Playschool hosting gig. She seems to like nodding her head and moving around a lot – perfect.

  14. If Maxine doesn’t win Bennelong (and if there is a God she will), can she please come back to the ABC so that we don’t get any more Ms Trioli?
    Not sure what it is about her , but even on the Sunday Arts program she gets to me like nails on a blackboard.

  15. “Laura Bingle” – yes she should be on, after all she is well known as a political genius.

    I don’t know why you all hang sh*t on Trioli . She’s not that bad.

    Why can’t all journos look like Laura Tingle?

  16. Still Jon if Newhouse can only pull a primary of 36% when Labor’s primary in national polls is what 48 that’s 12 below meaning the Greens would need 15% plus to help him flop over the line and hope Malcolm’s personal primary vote doesn’t increase. I believe he will hold the seat, but boy it will be one to watch on election night especially with a live feed to Malcolm HQ.

  17. Laura Tingle is the spouse of Alan Ramsay.

    What is it with the press gallery? Do they all take Michelle Grattan patented sour pills?

    Honestly who would take anything said by a journalist remotely seriously!

  18. Jasmine @395 I am with you. If people in Boothby don’t like Nicole Cornes then vote Greens and then give your preferences to the Liberal Party, One Nation, or Family First!!!!!

    I bet that will make you feel all warm, fuzzy & socially aware inside now won’t it?

  19. Middle man

    [how amusing that Jasmine thought because i was disagreeing with her I must be like Glen, ie a Lib voter.]

    I think she would have thought as you as worse: a sexist male liberal voter who’s like glen…

  20. [ who would take anything said by a journalist remotely seriously! ]

    Edward,

    You don’t take the polls seriously. You don’t take journos seriously. Seems the only thing you do take seriously is what ever bull comes out of John Howard’s mouth.

  21. Trioli’s taste in clothes is utterly appalling…..everytime she hosts LL it is a fashion disaster. I’m the first to acknowledge that I, myself, am not the epitome of sartorial elegance but surely she wear something decent once in a while.

  22. middle man Says: “i’m on record this afternoon as saying Trioli is a bit hot. hehe.”

    yes middle man, we’re trying to forget that 😉

  23. Too distracting for the pollies like Dolly who was caught taking a look or at least looked as if he was lol, they (males) find it hard to concentrate on politics around Leigh Sayles, mind you who wouldn’t.

  24. Tingle is a classy journo – a balloon filled with cynicism.

    Every now and again she ends up on Skynooz Agenda, and the look on her face throughout the whole program is sort of like “god, please save me from these c*ckspanks”.

    It’s nearly as good as the look she gives when she pops a question at the National Press Club lunches – that whole “dont try that horsesh*t on with me, son” stare.

    Brilliant.

  25. 478 paul k
    ‘not that bad’
    She has NFI about her subject manner.
    She had none long ago and in that time she’s done not one iota of research.
    474 marty
    sums it up well – there’s any number of far better qualified candidates.

  26. middle man, you are brave, I’ll give you that. Leigh Sales could wear a sack cloth and she’s be hotter than the tepid Trioli.

    The thing is though, irrespective of her appearance, she is such a lightweight with no idea of what she is talking about. She is articulate, but there is nothing behind the flow of words.

  27. Al in Boothby –
    what has that got to do with her aptitude as a candidate? It is time the major parties stopped treating voters like idiots by putting celebrity figures (or spouses of) in as candidates.

  28. Econocrat can you confirm/refute that while Commonwealth share of total tax take has risen over the last decade its share of grants to states has fallen (somehow disentangling the shift to GST…)

  29. I’m amused that some people think the fact that Nicole Cornes used to vote Liberal disqualifies her from running for Labor. Memo nitwits: We WANT people to change their minds, duh. In a seat which has elected a Liberal member for 61 years, running someone who can say “I once was blind, but now can see!” is surely a worthwhile tactic. And let me point out that there are two former Labor voters in Howard’s Cabinet. Go Nicole!

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